SRP-IF: Open access global flood hazard layers.

无论是在英国（如萨默塞特水平，2014年）还是在国际上（如澳大利亚和泰国，2011年），备受瞩目的洪水事件一再发生，导致公众、商业、政治和科学对洪水风险的持续关注。科学界对洪水的高度关注反映在最近和目前的NERC专题方案的数量上，这些方案全部或大部分致力于这一主题。布里斯托尔大学的水文学小组参与或领导了许多项目，其结果是我们对数据丰富地区（如英国）洪水风险的理解有了实质性的提高。然而，洪水显然是一个全球性的现象，目前还不存在一致的全球性危害和风险产品，但国际政府、非政府组织和英国企业却迫切需要这些产品。展望未来，由于人口增长和移民，位于河流洪泛区和沿海三角洲的城市将继续扩张，预计未来几十年洪水风险将显著增加。这一前景尤其令（再）保险市场——英国金融服务业的一个重要组成部分——以及世界银行（World Bank）和联合国世界粮食计划署（United Nations World Food Programme）等全球人道主义和发展组织感到担忧。最近的损失已被证明是巨大的：2007年夏季英国洪水造成的家庭损失达到25亿英镑，商业损失进一步达到10亿英镑。据慕尼黑再保险公司估计，2011年澳大利亚和泰国地震造成的经济损失总额分别为28亿美元和400亿美元。在这样的背景下，尽管主要集中在英国的洪水风险上，上面提到的最近nerc资助的项目已经产生了一些重要的研究进展，这些进展已经开始缩小存在于全球洪水风险的知识差距。也许最关键的是，在布里斯托尔大学进行的NERC资助的研究已经产生了允许进行大规模洪水模型的算法。进一步的NERC资助的研究指导了模型结构的发展，允许开发具有全球覆盖的模型。布里斯托尔大学水文集团通过与威利斯研究网络（Willis Research Network）的长期合作关系，与保险市场建立了牢固的联系。威利斯研究网络是全球三大再保险经纪公司之一。通过与威利斯和其他行业合作伙伴的这种关系，确定了开发免费的全球洪水危险层和商业洪水风险产品的潜力。目前，适合保险和再保险市场的洪水风险产品仅在全球少数地区存在。对于许多发达和新兴市场来说，准备金率接近于零，但风险敞口却相当大，而且还在不断增加。与此同时，免费获得的全球洪水危险层对世界粮食计划署（World Food Programme）等人道主义机构和世界银行（World Bank）等在降低风险方面有重大利益的国际组织来说，将是一个重大的好处。因此，该项目将使用最先进的方法生成全球洪水灾害层，这些方法是NERC资助的科学研究的一部分，并通过谷歌Earth提供大量开放访问。这些层次将是第一个全球公开获取的洪水灾害评估，可供各国政府、非政府组织和整个全球公众使用，从而从根本上改变全球对洪水灾害的认识，并导致洪水复原力的逐步改变。然后，我们将与全球（再）保险行业合作，确定与此相关的商业机会以及相关的NERC资助的科学。这项提议得到了谷歌、NASA-JPL、世界银行、世界粮食计划署、威利斯大学、三井住友大学、蒙彼利埃大学、雷丁大学和纽卡斯尔大学的支持。

The repeated occurrence of high profile flood events, both within the UK (e.g. Somerset Levels, 2014) and internationally (e.g. Australia and Thailand, 2011), has resulted in sustained public, commercial, political and scientific interest in flood risk. The heightened profile of flooding within the scientific community is reflected in the number of recent and current NERC thematic programmes dedicated wholly or in large part to this topic. The Hydrology Group at the University of Bristol has been involved in or led numerous programmes, with the result being a substantial improvement in our understanding of flood risk in data-rich regions such as the UK. However flooding is very clearly a worldwide phenomenon and consistent global hazard and risk products do not currently exist but are very urgently required by international governments and NGOs, and by British businesses.Looking to the future, the continued expansion of cities located on river floodplains and coastal deltas due to population growth and migration is expected to produce a significant increase in flood risk over the coming decades. The prospect is of particular concern to the (re)insurance market, a critical component of the UK financial services sector, as well as to global humanitarian and development organisations such as the World Bank and the United Nations World Food Programme. Recent losses have proven significant: household losses resulting from the summer 2007 floods in the UK reached £2.5 billion, with business losses accounting for a further £1 billion. The reinsurance firm Munich Re estimates that total economic losses from the Australian and Thailand events of 2011 were USD 2.8 billion and USD 40 billion respectively.Against this background and despite being largely focussed on UK flood risk the above mentioned recent NERC-funded programmes have yielded a number of important research developments that have started to close the knowledge gap that exists for global flood risk. Perhaps most critically, NERC funded research undertaken at the University of Bristol has yielded algorithms that allow very large scale flood models to be undertaken. Further NERC funded research has guided the development of model structures that allow models with global coverage to be developed. The Hydrology Group at the University of Bristol has built strong links with the insurance market through a long standing partnership with the Willis Research Network, Willis being one of the three dominant global reinsurance brokers. Through this relationship with Willis and other industry partners the potential to develop both freely available global flood hazard layers and commercial flood risk products was identified. Currently flood risk products appropriate for insurance and re-insurance markets exist in only a few territories worldwide. For many developed and emerging markets is near zero provision but significant and growing exposure. At the same time, freely available global flood hazard layers would be a significant benefit to humanitarian agencies such as the World Food Programme and international organisations with significant interests in risk reduction such as the World Bank.Therefore, this project will produce global flood hazard layers using state of the art methods developed as part of NERC funded science and provide massively open access to these via Google Earth. These layers will be the first global openly accessible assessment of flood hazard that can be used by Governments, NGOs and the entire global public thereby changing fundamentally global awareness of flood hazard and leading to a step change in flood resilience. We will then work with the global (re)insurance industry to identify commercial opportunities relating to this and related NERC funded science. The proposal is supported by Google, NASA-JPL, World Bank, World Food Programme, Willis, Mitsui Sumitomo, Montpelier-Re and the Universities of Reading and Newcastle.