Risk Based Performance Forecast of Flood Defences Affected by Changing Environments

基于风险的受环境变化影响的防洪绩效预测

• 批准号: NE/M008487/1
• 负责人: Hua-Peng Chen
• 金额: $ 5.6万
• 依托单位: University of Greenwich
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM008487%2F1
• 关键词: Risk; Based; Performance; Forecast; Flood

Flooding is a growing problem in the UK and causes extensive damage to infrastructure, homes and business. Recently, the problem was highlighted again due to severe flooding in 2013/14 winter, causing total economic losses of over £1 billion. Earth dykes, used as major flood defence structures in the UK, can fail in extreme events, as evidenced by the numerous breaches along earth embankments during the December 2013 East Coast surge event. Earth dykes even become more vulnerable due to changing operation conditions caused by climate change.The project addresses strategic issues associated with changing environments and deteriorating flood defence systems at a UK national level, which have been identified by HR Wallingford and the Environment Agency. The outcomes of the project will contribute towards developing next generation risk based performance evaluation and prediction methodology for reducing flood risk, improving resilience of flood defences to changing environments, and determining optimum maintenance strategies. The methods developed in this research will be implemented into flood risk management framework through HR Wallingford who currently lead the technical development of the flood risk assessment methodology used by the Environment Agency.

洪水是英国日益严重的问题，对基础设施、家庭和企业造成了广泛的破坏。最近，由于2013/14冬季的严重洪水，该问题再次凸显，造成总经济损失超过10亿英镑。在英国用作主要防洪建筑物的土堤在极端事件中可能会失效，2013年12月东海岸浪涌事件期间沿沿着土堤发生的众多破坏就是明证。由于气候变化导致的运行条件变化，土堤甚至变得更加脆弱。该项目解决了与英国国家一级不断变化的环境和不断恶化的防洪系统相关的战略问题，这些问题已由HR Wallingford和环境署确定。该项目的成果将有助于开发下一代基于风险的性能评估和预测方法，以降低洪水风险，提高防洪系统对不断变化的环境的适应能力，并确定最佳维护策略。本研究中开发的方法将通过HR Wallingford实施到洪水风险管理框架中，HR Wallingford目前领导环境局使用的洪水风险评估方法的技术开发。

项目成果

Translation of expert judgement based condition grading to state-based probabilistic deterioration modelling of flood defences

将基于专家判断的条件分级转化为基于状态的防洪概率恶化模型

• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Journal of Flood Risk Management (in preparation)
• 作者: Nepal, J.;Chen, H.-P.;Gouldby, B.;Simm, J.
• 通讯作者: Simm, J.

Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.021
• 发表时间: 2019-05
• 期刊: Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.
• 作者: Huapeng Chen;M. Mehrabani

Reliability-based performance assessment of flood defence assets using state-based stochastic deterioration modelling

使用基于状态的随机恶化模型对防洪资产进行基于可靠性的性能评估

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Nepal, J;Chen, H.-P.;Gouldby, B.;Simm, J.
• 通讯作者: Simm, J.

Lifetime Performance Assessment of Flood Defence Structures Utilising Condition Grading Data

利用状况分级数据对防洪结构进行生命周期性能评估

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Chen, H.-P.

Markov chain based stochastic deterioration modelling of repaired flood defence structures using evolutionary algorithm

基于马尔可夫链的修复防洪结构的随机恶化模型使用进化算法

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Nepal, J;Chen, H.-P.;Gouldby, B.;Simm, J.
• 通讯作者: Simm, J.