Volcanic Ash Hazard to UK Nuclear Generating Facilities

火山灰对英国核发电设施的危害

• 批准号: NE/M008878/1
• 负责人: Jeremy Phillips
• 金额: $ 18.64万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM008878%2F1
• 关键词: Volcanic; Ash; Hazard; UK; Nuclear

Volcanic ash is the most widespread and frequent hazardous volcanic phenomenon, being produced in over 90% of all eruptions. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland and the resulting closure of Northern European airspace has focused attention on the international reach of ash even from relatively small volcanic eruptions. It is now important to rigorously assess potential impacts on nuclear power facilities in the UK from volcanoes in neighbouring regions. Thick volcanic ash accumulation might render a site temporarily inoperable but even minimal (a few mm) ash deposition in the vicinity of a nuclear facility has the potential to disrupt normal operations. This proposal will result in a robust, transparent and broadly-applicable methodology for evaluating the likelihood of volcanic ash threatening UK nuclear facilities. This will be based on state-of-the-art probabilistic hazard assessment methodologies developed through NERC-funded science at the University of Bristol, with new knowledge exchange mechanisms and collaborative research strands to adapt to the special circumstances of low probability events relevant to the UK nuclear industry. The hazard assessment will be directly linked to a case study of site management changes to mitigate this hazard, and the methodology will be intentionally transparent and generic to allow application to other volcanic regions hosting nuclear or other sensitive high-tech sites. This project has been developed through ongoing discussions with EDF Energy, and the skills, tools and outputs acquired through the project will be transferable to, and of benefit for, a wider range of the volcanic hazard assessment stakeholder community. The project builds on NERC science outputs from the consortium projects STREVA,CREDIBLE and VANAHEIM and also the Global Volcano Model (GVM) network, and consists of five components:1. characterisation of eruption source parameters at regional volcanoes with potential to disperse ash over the UK, and the meteorological conditions affecting ash transport from eruption source to specific location;2. a workshop with experts from EDF Energy and from academia to create the essential framework for relating volcanic activity probabilities and likelihood of site impacts to nuclear industry procedures, standards and regulatory requirements;3. a probabilistic framework for modelling airborne and ground-based regional ash hazard arising from multiple volcanoes, and visualisation of ash hazard at UK nuclear facilities;4. a new set of protocols for nuclear site preparedness and management in the event of volcanic activity; preliminary estimation of implementation costs, business disruption and supply chain issues;5. generation and dissemination of reports and a scientific paper presenting the hazard assessment methodology for low probability volcanic activity.The project will provide a quantified volcanic ash hazard assessment for UK sites. The main benefit is improved understanding of credible, though extreme (1 in 10,000 year), volcanic ash hazard on the operation of nuclear power plants in the UK. The far-reaching impacts of volcanic ash means that preparedness and mitigation strategies developed on the basis of findings from this project will protect against unforeseen nuclear safety consequences and help ensure the reliability of electricity supply to the population of the UK. The impact of the exchanged knowledge will range from the development of new informed decision-making concerning the volcanic ash hazard management to the potential design of mitigation measures and procedures if required.EDF Energy Generation is committed to characterising the hazard due to volcanic ash for its nuclear sites. This project forms the first part of understanding this problem and may identify further research and Knowledge Exchange needs.

火山灰是最普遍和最常见的危险火山现象，在所有喷发中有90%以上是由火山灰产生的。2010年冰岛Eyjafjallajökull火山喷发和由此导致的北欧领空关闭，使人们关注即使是相对较小的火山喷发产生的火山灰在国际上的范围。现在重要的是严格评估邻近地区的火山对英国核电设施的潜在影响。浓厚的火山灰堆积可能会使一个地点暂时无法运行，但即使是核设施附近极少量(几毫米)的火山灰沉积，也有可能扰乱正常运行。这项提议将为评估火山灰威胁英国核设施的可能性提供一种强有力、透明和广泛适用的方法。这将基于通过布里斯托尔大学NERC资助的科学开发的最先进的概率危险评估方法，以及新的知识交流机制和合作研究链，以适应与英国核工业相关的低概率事件的特殊情况。危险评估将直接与场地管理改革的案例研究相联系，以减轻这一危险，方法将故意透明和通用，以便适用于拥有核或其他敏感高科技场地的其他火山区。该项目是通过与EDF Energy的持续讨论而开发的，通过该项目获得的技能、工具和成果将可转让给更广泛的火山灾害评估利益攸关方社区，并使其受益。该项目以NERC项目STREVA、Trusted和Vanaheim以及全球火山模型(GVM)网络的科学成果为基础，由五个部分组成：1.确定有可能将火山灰分散到英国各地的区域火山的喷发源参数，以及影响火山灰从喷发源到特定地点的气象条件；2.与EDF Energy和学术界的专家一起举办讲习班，以创建基本框架，将火山活动的概率和地点影响的可能性与核工业程序、标准和监管要求联系起来；3.模拟多座火山引起的空中和地面区域火山灰危险的概率框架，以及联合王国核设施的火山灰危险的可视化；4.火山活动发生时核设施备灾和管理的一套新的协议；初步估计实施费用、业务中断和供应链问题；5.编写和分发介绍低概率火山活动危险评估方法的报告和科学论文。该项目将为联合王国的地点提供量化的火山灰危险评估。主要的好处是提高了对英国核电站运营中可信的、尽管极端的(10000年一次)火山灰危险的理解。火山灰的深远影响意味着，根据该项目的调查结果制定的防备和缓解战略将防止不可预见的核安全后果，并有助于确保向英国民众提供可靠的电力供应。交流的知识的影响范围从制定有关火山灰危险管理的新的知情决策，到必要时可能设计的缓解措施和程序。法国电力能源公司致力于为其核设施确定火山灰造成的危险的特征。这个项目构成了理解这个问题的第一部分，并可能确定进一步的研究和知识交流需求。

项目成果

Quantifying uncertainty in probabilistic volcanic ash hazard forecasts, with an application to weather pattern based wind field sampling

量化火山灰概率灾害预测的不确定性，并应用于基于天气模式的风场采样

• DOI: 10.1007/s00445-023-01664-x
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Bulletin of Volcanology
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Phillips J