REFUGIAL POPULATIONS AT TRAILING-EDGE RANGE MARGINS: ATTRIBUTES, SURVIVAL AND CONSERVATION

处于后缘边缘的难民种群：属性、生存和保护

• 批准号: NE/M010740/1
• 负责人: Brian Huntley
• 金额: $ 24.88万
• 依托单位: Durham University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM010740%2F1
• 关键词: REFUGIAL; POPULATIONS; TRAILING; EDGE; RANGE

Many species currently survive as localised, refugial populations in regions where they used to be more widespread under more favourable past climatic conditions. These species survive in localised habitats and/or microclimates that are atypical of the surrounding region; for example, a cold-adapted species in Britain might survive on a locally cold, north-facing site when the climate warms. Refugia have been extremely important in allowing species to survive past climatic changes, and are likely to be so again under anthropogenic climate change. Despite this, the local conditions that support population refugia are poorly understood. Thus we have little idea of the attributes (locations, habitats, microclimates) of sites where species may persist in future as the climate changes. Understanding these attributes is vital for informing future conservation policies as well as for developing a deeper fundamental scientific understanding of the dynamics of species' geographic distributions. We will take advantage of the opportunity presented by anthropogenic climate change to observe the creation of refugial populations directly, by studying four species of northerly-distributed butterflies in Britain. Butterflies are ideal study species for this project because there are excellent distribution records in Britain over the past four decades of climate change, and because local microclimate and microhabitat conditions affect all butterfly life stages, from birth to death. We will re-survey sites in Britain for which we have historical distribution data since the 1970s, and which we re-surveyed in 2004-05, to determine where species have survived, and where they have become extinct. We will use dynamic population models that incorporate environmental information for species to identify the local microclimatic and habitat characteristics of locations where populations have survived since the onset of anthropogenic climate change in the 1970s. We will examine the generality of our butterfly findings by studying climate refugial formation in other northern invertebrates. We will then use our models to project the consequences of future climatic changes for species, to the year 2100, and determine the degree to which refugia coincide with the locations of existing protected areas in Britain.The proposed work will provide the first investigation of, and predictive models for, the attributes of locations that promote population persistence in range retreating species. The project will address fundamental questions about the dynamics of species' ranges under climate change, as well as producing results of considerable practical value for policy makers. It will open up a new avenue of research on understanding the impacts of climate change on biodiversity, and provide a concrete body of scientific evidence to inform the debate on developing effective conservation strategies under climate change.

目前，许多物种在过去的气候条件下以前更为普遍，以局部养殖种群的生存。这些物种在周围地区非典型的局部栖息地和/或微气候中生存；例如，当气候变暖时，英国的一个冷适应的物种可能会在当地寒冷，朝北的地点生存。 Refugia对于允许物种在过去的气候变化中生存而非常重要，并且很可能在人为气候变化下再次如此。尽管如此，支持人口避难所的当地条件知之甚少。因此，我们对随着气候变化的将来可能会持续存在的地点的属性（位置，栖息地，微气候）几乎没有任何了解。了解这些属性对于告知未来的保护政策以及对物种地理分布动态的更深刻的科学理解至关重要。我们将利用人为气候变化带来的机会，直接研究英国的四种北分布蝴蝶，直接观察避难所的创造。蝴蝶是该项目的理想研究物种，因为在过去的四十年的气候变化中，英国有出色的分销记录，并且由于当地的微气候和微居民条件会影响从出生到死亡的所有蝴蝶生命阶段。自1970年代以来，我们将重新调查英国拥有历史分布数据的地点，并在2004 - 05年重新调查，以确定物种在哪里生存以及它们灭绝的地方。我们将使用动态种群模型，这些模型结合了物种的环境信息，以识别自1970年代人为气候变化以来人口生存的位置的局部微气候和栖息地特征。我们将通过研究其他北部无脊椎动物的气候避难所形成来检查蝴蝶发现的普遍性。然后，我们将使用模型将物种未来气候变化的后果投射到2100年，并确定Refugia与英国现有保护区的位置相吻合的程度。拟议的工作将为促进范围撤退的地点人口持久性的首次研究和预测模型提供了对位置人群持久性的属性。该项目将解决有关气候变化下物种范围动态的基本问题，并为政策制定者带来相当大的实用价值的结果。它将为理解气候变化对生物多样性的影响的新研究开放，并提供一大批科学证据，以告知有关在气候变化下制定有效的保护策略的辩论。