A niche-modelling approach to understanding late-Quaternary megafaunal extinctions

理解晚第四纪巨型动物灭绝的生态位建模方法

• 批准号: NE/G00188X/1
• 负责人: Brian Huntley
• 金额: $ 50.13万
• 依托单位: Durham University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG00188X%2F1
• 关键词: niche; modelling; approach; understanding; late

A number of large mammals ('megafauna') became extinct towards, or following, the end of the last glacial period. The cause of their extinction, and in particular the reason why some species went extinct, whereas other large mammals survived to the present day in the same regions, remains a matter of debate amongst scientists. Two principal hypotheses have been advanced to account for the extinctions. Firstly, it is suggested that the major climatic changes and associated ecological upheavals of the end of the glacial stage resulted in the conditions to which the species were adapted no longer being available to them. Secondly, given the coincidence of the extinctions with an increasing population and expanding geographical range of humans, it is suggested that human activities, principally the pressures exerted upon the megafaunal populations by hunting, caused the extinctions. We propose to adopt a new approach to investigating these extinctions and to discriminating between these alternative explanations. Our research will uniquely combine: (i) detailed dating information from high quality radiocarbon dates made directly on fossils of megafaunal species (ii) simulations of past climate for the periods of interest made using the same kind of climate model as is used to simulate potential future climates; and (iii) evidence of megafaunal species' habitats and diets. The latter will be inferred from: (i) simulations of past vegetation; (ii) records of past vegetation; and (iii) those rare instances where fossils of megafaunal species are found directly associated with plant remains, notably in the case of fossils from the permafrost in which the stomach contents are preserved. We will use these data to construct models relating the megafaunal species' geographical ranges to climate, habitat and components of their diet. We will then use these models to simulate the changing potential range of each species. The models and these simulations will enable us to assess the series of hypotheses, testing of which is the principal aim of our study. Our study will encompass all of northern Eurasia and North America, enabling us to include the complete geographical ranges of species that ranged across both continents in the past, and will extend from about 50,000 years ago to about 5,000 years ago. In addition to studying a range of extinct species, including herbivores, carnivores and omnivores, we will also examine a comparable range of species that survive to the present day. In these cases we will also use data recording the species' current geographical distributions. By examining both extinct and surviving species we will be able to make critical comparisons that will provide insight into the factors determining which species survived and which suffered extinction. The results of our study will help elucidate the relative importance of environmental, especially climatic, change, of the ecological characteristics of the species themselves, and of human activities, in causing the extinctions.

许多大型哺乳动物（“巨型动物群”）在末次冰期结束时或之后灭绝。它们灭绝的原因，特别是为什么某些物种灭绝，而同一地区的其他大型哺乳动物至今仍存活至今，仍然是科学家们争论的问题。人们提出了两个主要假设来解释灭绝事件。首先，有人认为，冰川期末期的主要气候变化和相关的生态剧变导致该物种不再能够适应其适应的条件。其次，鉴于灭绝与人口增加和人类地理范围扩大同时发生，有人认为人类活动，主要是狩猎对巨型动物种群施加的压力，导致了灭绝。我们建议采用一种新方法来调查这些灭绝并区分这些替代解释。我们的研究将独特地结合：（i）直接在巨型动物物种化石上获得的高质量放射性碳测年的详细测年信息（ii）使用与模拟潜在未来气候相同的气候模型对感兴趣时期的过去气候进行模拟； (iii) 巨型动物物种栖息地和饮食的证据。后者将从以下方面推断：(i) 对过去植被的模拟； (ii) 过去植被的记录； (iii) 发现巨型动物物种化石与植物遗骸直接相关的罕见情况，特别是来自永久冻土的化石，其中保存了胃内容物。我们将利用这些数据构建将巨型动物物种的地理范围与气候、栖息地及其饮食成分联系起来的模型。然后我们将使用这些模型来模拟每个物种变化的潜在范围。这些模型和这些模拟将使我们能够评估一系列假设，测试这些假设是我们研究的主要目的。我们的研究将涵盖整个欧亚大陆北部和北美，使我们能够包括过去横跨这两个大陆的物种的完整地理范围，并将从大约 50,000 年前延伸到大约 5,000 年前。除了研究一系列已灭绝的物种，包括食草动物、食肉动物和杂食动物外，我们还将研究存活至今的相当范围的物种。在这些情况下，我们还将使用记录物种当前地理分布的数据。通过检查灭绝和幸存的物种，我们将能够进行关键的比较，从而深入了解决定哪些物种幸存和哪些物种灭绝的因素。我们的研究结果将有助于阐明环境（特别是气候）变化、物种本身的生态特征以及人类活动在导致灭绝方面的相对重要性。

项目成果

Extreme temporal interpolation of sparse data is not a sufficient basis to substantiate a claim to have uncovered Pleistocene forest microrefugia.

稀疏数据的极端时间插值不足以证实已发现更新世森林微保护区的说法。

• DOI: 10.1111/nph.12941
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: The New phytologist
• 作者: Huntley B

Population Demography and Genetic Diversity in the Pleistocene Cave Lion

• DOI: 10.5334/oq.aa
• 发表时间: 2015-01-01
• 期刊: Open Quaternary
• 作者: Ersmark, Erik;Orlando, Ludovic;Dalen, Love
• 通讯作者: Dalen, Love

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-12-51-2016
• 发表时间: 2016-01-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE OF THE PAST
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Hoogakker, B. A. A.;Smith, R. S.;Tzedakis, C.
• 通讯作者: Tzedakis, C.