Cataclysmic eruptions in densely populated areas: the ticking eruptive clock at Popocatepetl volcano (Mexico).

人口稠密地区的灾难性喷发：波波卡特佩特火山（墨西哥）的喷发时钟滴答作响。

• 批准号: NE/M014584/1
• 负责人: Chiara Maria Petrone
• 金额: $ 24.02万
• 依托单位: Natural History Museum
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM014584%2F1
• 关键词: Cataclysmic; eruptions; densely; populated; areas

Andesitic stratovolcanoes are the most explosive volcanoes on our planet. On a societal level, they have great impact on the proximal region and human population, whilst on a larger Earth system scale, they affect climate and are thought to be key to the evolution of continental crust. The timescales over which an explosive andesitic stratovolcano switches from low-to-moderate explosive activity to cataclysmic Plinian eruption are fundamental in assessing volcanic hazards and safeguarding the lives of threatened human populations. Popocatépetl (Popo) volcano in Mexico is one of the most explosive andesitic stratovolcanoes in North America and one of the ten most populated active volcanoes in the world, threatening an overpopulated area (>20 million) including Mexico City. Its volcanic and magmatic history is well known and is characterised by a wide range of eruption styles including catastrophic Plinian events, effusive activity and moderate explosive Vulcanian activity separated by long but variable periods of quiescence. Key uncertainties at Popo (and in similar volcanoes) are the timescales over which the volcano reactivates or changes eruptive styles and whether these timescales relate to magma recharge of the system. The proposed work addresses these uncertainties via the following over-arching questions: 1) How and on what timescale do intermediate stratovolcanoes change their eruptive behaviour from low-to-moderate explosive activity to catastrophic Plinian eruption? 2) What (if any) is the relationship between timescales, eruptive style and magma recharge flux?Popo represents a natural laboratory to answer these questions: by linking timescales derived from a variety of geochemical techniques to explore crystal residence times and crystal isotope stratigraphies we can determine the main cause(s) of the switch from moderate explosive eruption to highly-explosive catastrophic Plinian activity and inform hazard assessment on the timescales of magmatic processes and durations of quiescence that can be expected for different eruptive styles. We investigate the existing paradigm that an invers causal relationship exists between the flux of magma injection (i.e., frequency of mixing) and magnitude of volcanic eruption, at a constant crustal magma-supply rate. If flux of magma injection is directly related to explosive magnitude, then we would expect lower frequency of injection to eventually result in more explosive activity. Conversely, periods of high frequency of injection would be predicted to result in more effusive activity. A key question, therefore, is whether a distinct decrease in mixing frequency can be geochemically identified leading up to an explosive Plinian event?We propose an innovative, multi-proxy approach combining crystal residence time and crystal isotope stratigraphy to provide a critical step forward in understanding past eruptive behaviour at Popo. Thus this work will enhance volcanic hazard assessment and provide a guideline for similar volcanic systems.

安山岩成层火山是我们星球上最具爆炸性的火山。在社会层面上，它们对邻近地区和人口有很大的影响，而在更大的地球系统尺度上，它们影响气候，被认为是大陆地壳演化的关键。爆炸性安山质成层火山从低到中度爆炸活动转变为灾难性普林尼式喷发的时间尺度对于评估火山灾害和保护受威胁人口的生命至关重要。墨西哥的波波卡特佩特火山是北美最具爆炸性的安山质成层火山之一，也是世界上人口最多的十大活火山之一，威胁着包括墨西哥城在内的人口过剩地区（超过2000万）。它的火山和岩浆历史是众所周知的，其特点是各种各样的喷发风格，包括灾难性的普林尼事件，热情洋溢的活动和温和的爆发性火山活动，由长时间但可变的静止期分开。Popo（以及类似火山）的主要不确定性是火山重新激活或改变喷发方式的时间尺度，以及这些时间尺度是否与系统的岩浆补给有关。拟议的工作解决这些不确定性，通过以下过度的问题：1）如何以及在什么时间尺度上做中间成层火山改变他们的喷发行为从低到中等的爆炸活动，灾难性的普林尼火山喷发？2)时间尺度、喷发方式和岩浆补给通量之间的关系是什么？Popo代表了一个自然实验室来回答这些问题：通过将各种地球化学技术得出的时间尺度联系起来，探索晶体停留时间和晶体同位素地层学，我们可以确定从中度爆发到高度爆发的主要原因。爆炸性的灾难性普林尼活动，并告知危险评估的时间尺度的岩浆过程和持续时间的平静，可以预期不同的爆发式花柱我们调查了现有的范式，即岩浆注入通量之间存在反向因果关系（即，混合的频率）和火山喷发的规模，在一个恒定的地壳岩浆供应率。如果岩浆注入的流量与爆炸强度直接相关，那么我们预计较低的注入频率最终会导致更多的爆炸活动。相反，高频率注射的时期将被预测为导致更多的热情洋溢的活动。因此，一个关键的问题是，是否可以确定一个明显的减少混合频率的地球化学导致了爆炸普林尼事件？我们提出了一个创新的，多代理的方法相结合的晶体停留时间和晶体同位素地层学，以提供一个关键的一步，了解过去的爆发行为在波波。因此，这项工作将加强火山灾害评估，并为类似的火山系统提供指导。

项目成果

Magma recharge patterns control eruption styles and magnitudes at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

岩浆补给模式控制波波卡特佩特火山（墨西哥）的喷发类型和强度

• DOI: 10.1130/g49365.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Geology
• 影响因子: 5.8
• 作者: Mangler M

Interplinian effusive activity at Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico: New insights into evolution and dynamics of the plumbing system

墨西哥波波卡特佩特火山的 Interplinian 喷发活动：对管道系统演化和动态的新见解

• DOI: 10.30909/vol.02.01.4572
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Volcanica
• 作者: Mangler M

Crustal Magmatic System Evolution - Anatomy, Architecture, and Physico-Chemical Processes

地壳岩浆系统演化 - 解剖学、结构和物理化学过程

• DOI: 10.1002/9781119564485.ch8
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Petrone C

RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system

研究重点：火山喷发：从电离层到管道系统

• DOI: 10.1130/focus102018.1
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Geology
• 影响因子: 5.8
• 作者: Petrone C

Pre-eruptive magmatic processes re-timed using a non-isothermal approach to magma chamber dynamics.

• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12946
• 发表时间: 2016-10-05
• 期刊: Nature communications
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Petrone CM;Bugatti G;Braschi E;Tommasini S
• 通讯作者: Tommasini S