Seabirds and wind - the consequences of extreme prey taxis in a changing climate

随着温室气体排放导致全球气候变暖，构成生态系统的有机体的分布和种群规模正在发生变化。例如，一些欧洲鸣鸟正在向北扩大它们的活动范围，而另一些正在减少。这些影响不仅从物种保护的角度令人关切，而且因为健康的生态系统提供对人类至关重要的服务。例如，植物产生我们呼吸的氧气，昆虫为植物授粉，从而使食物生产成为可能。这些大中型海鸟的非凡之处在于它们能够飞很远的距离寻找食物。例如，巨大的剪切力每年在赤道上迁徙，使它们能够利用北大西洋和南大西洋夏季食物丰度的高峰。与鲸鱼和鲨鱼等其他大型捕食者一起，觅食的海燕聚集在由海洋环流模式造成的所谓热点地区。海燕能够在这些热点地区和它们的繁殖地之间快速移动，是因为它们能够利用风飞行。然而，这意味着它们的移动受到盛行的风模式的限制：就像古老的帆船一样，它们需要避开逆风和风平浪静的区域。随着全球变暖，全球风场模式预计将发生显着变化。例如，亚热带已经很弱的风带--马纬度地区的风速预计将下降，而温带地区的风速将会增加。与此同时，随着海洋变暖，海燕赖以生存的鱼类、鱿鱼和甲壳类动物的分布预计将向两极转移。虽然这些变化可能会让一些海燕受益，但它们可能会伤害其他海燕。例如，通过在它们的殖民地中储存营养丰富的鸟粪，它们支持一些岛屿上的整个生态系统。浮游植物也很重要，因为它们能从大气中吸收二氧化碳，减缓气候变化的速度。尽管气候变化对海燕构成了威胁，但我们对它们的生活理解存在很大差距。到目前为止，对这些物种的大部分研究都是在非常偏远的地区进行的，比如环绕南极洲的南大洋。相比之下，值得注意的是，人们对大西洋深处海燕的生活知之甚少，尽管这片海洋的边界是世界上一些最发达的国家。我将通过使用微型伐木器和船上采样来记录海燕在海上的运动、行为和饮食来实现这一点。然后，我将使用计算机模型将这些数据与风和海洋条件以及海燕种群变化的数据结合起来，以预测海燕的移动、种群规模和生态系统服务在未来将如何变化。

As the world's climate warms due to the emission of greenhouse gases, the distribution and population sizes of the organisms that make up ecosystems are changing. For example, some European songbirds are expanding their ranges northwards, while others are declining. These effects are of concern not only from a species conservation perspective but because healthy ecosystems provide services vital to humanity. For example, plants produce the oxygen we breathe and insects pollinate plants, enabling food production. As such, there is an acute need to forecast the responses of organisms to climate change so that they can be mitigated in an effective and timely manner.My proposed fellowship concerns one group of animals that may be particularly vulnerable to climate change: albatrosses, petrels and shearwaters (or simply, 'petrels'). These large-to-medium sized seabirds are remarkable for their ability to fly vast distances in search of food. For example, great shearwaters migrate across the equator each year, allowing them to exploit summertime peaks in food abundance in both the North and South Atlantic. Along with other large predators, like whales and sharks, feeding petrels congregate in so called hotspots caused by the ocean circulation patterns. Petrels are able to travel rapidly between these hotspots and their breeding colonies because of their ability to use the wind to fly. This, however, means that their movements are limited by prevailing wind patterns: Like the sailing ships of old, they need to avoid headwinds and areas of calm. Global wind patterns are forecast to change markedly as the world warms. For example, wind speeds in the 'horse latitudes', a belt of already light winds in the sub-tropics, are predicted to decline, while those at temperate latitudes will increase. At the same time, as the oceans warm, the distribution of the fish, squid and crustaceans that petrels feed on is predicted to shift towards the poles. While these changes could benefit some petrels, they may harm others. For example, during migration, great shearwaters could become becalmed in mid-ocean, where food is scarce and the chances of starvation high.These impacts may have wider implications because, like plants and insects, petrels provide some important ecosystem services. For example, by depositing nutrient-rich guano in their colonies they support entire ecosystems on some islands. Less is known about related mechanisms in the sea but studies on large whales, which have similar diets to petrels, give some clues: They suggest that by recycling or transporting nutrients, seabirds stimulate the growth of phytoplankton, the tiny green algae that form the base of the marine food pyramid. Phytoplankton are also important because they draw carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, slowing the rate of climate change.Despite the threats posed to petrels by climate change there are some large gaps in our understanding of their lives. To-date, the majority of research on these species has been carried out in very remote areas, like the Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica. In contrast, remarkably, little is known about the lives of petrels in the deep Atlantic, despite the fact that this ocean is bounded by some of the world's most developed nations. The aim of my fellowship is therefore to use the Atlantic as a laboratory in order to determine how petrels have been affected by recent changes in the climate; how they affect phytoplankton growth and carbon dioxide levels; and how they may respond to future climate change. I will achieve this by recording the movement, behaviour and diet of petrels at sea using miniature loggers and ship-based sampling. I will then combine these data, using computer models, with data on wind and ocean conditions and petrel population changes, in order to predict how petrel movements, population sizes and ecosystem services will change in the future.