HyCRISTAL: Integrating Hydro-Climate Science into Policy Decisions for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure and Livelihoods in East Africa

HyCRISTAL：将水文气候科学纳入东非气候适应性基础设施和生计的政策决策中

• 批准号: NE/M02038X/1
• 负责人: John Marsham
• 金额: $ 170.85万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM02038X%2F1
• 关键词: HyCRISTAL; Integrating; Hydro; Climate; Science

East Africa (EA) has one of the world's fastest growing populations, with maxima around water-bodies and rapid urbanisation. Climate change is adding to existing problems increasing vulnerability of the poorest. HyCRISTAL is driven by EA priorities. EA communities rely on rainfall for food via agriculture. EA's inland lakes are rain-fed and provide water, power and fisheries. For EA's growing cities, climate impacts on water resources will affect water supply & treatment. HyCRISTAL will therefore operate in both urban & rural contexts. Change in water availability will be critical for climate-change impacts in EA, but projections are highly uncertain for rain, lakes, rivers and groundwater, and for extremes. EA "Long-Rains" are observed to be decreasing; while models tend to predict an increase (the "EA Climate paradox") although predictions are not consistent. This uncertainty provides a fundamental limit on the utility of climate information to inform policy. HyCRISTAL will therefore make best use of current projections to quantify uncertainty in user-relevant quantities and provide ground-breaking research to understand and reduce the uncertainty that currently limits decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with users to deliver world-leading climate research quantifying uncertainty from natural variability, uncertainty from climate forcings including those previously unassessed, and uncertainty in response to these forcings; including uncertainties from key processes such as convection and land-atmopshere coupling that are misrepresented in global models. Research will deliver new understanding of the mechanisms that drive the uncertainty in projections. HyCRISTAL will use this information to understand trends, when climate-change signals will emerge and provide a process-based expert judgement on projections. Working with policy makers, inter-disciplinary research (hydrology, economics, engineering, social science, ecology and decision-making) will quantify risks for rural & urban livelihoods, quantify climate impacts and provide the necessary tools to use climate information for decision making. HyCRISTAL will work with partners to co-produce research for decision-making on a 5-40 year timescale, demonstrated in 2 main pilots for urban water and policies to enable adaptive climate-smart rural livelihoods. These cover two of three "areas of need" from the African Ministerial Council on Environment's Comprehensive Framework of African Climate Change Programmes. HyCRISTAL has already engaged 12 partners from across EA. HyCRISTAL's Advisory Board will provide a mechanism for further growing stakeholder engagement.HyCRISTAL will work with the FCFA global & regional projects and CCKE, sharing methods, tools, user needs, expertise & communication. Uniquely, HyCRISTAL will capitalise on the new LVB-HyNEWS, an African-led consortium, governed by the East African Community, the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and National Meteorological and Hydrological agencies, with the African Ministerial Conference on Meteorology as an observer.HyCRISTAL will build EA capacity directly via collaboration (11 of 25 HyCRISTAL Co-Is are African, with 9 full-time in Africa), including data collection and via targeted workshops and teaching. HyCRISTAL will deliver evidence of impact, with new and deep climate science insights that will far outlast its duration. It will support decisions for climate-resilient infrastructure and livelihoods through application of new understanding in its pilots, with common methodological and infrastructure lessons to promote policy and enable transformational change for impact-at-scale. Using a combination of user-led and science-based management tools, HyCRISTAL will ensure the latest physical science, engineering and social-science yield maximum impacts. HyCRISTAL will deliver outstanding outputs across FCFA's aims; synergies with LVB-HyNEWS will add to these and ensure longevity beyond HyCRISTAL.

东非（EA）是世界上人口增长最快的地区之一，在水体和快速城市化的地区，人口增长最多。气候变化正在加剧现有问题，使最贫困人口更加脆弱。HyCRISTAL是由EA优先级驱动的。EA社区依靠降雨通过农业获取食物。EA的内陆湖泊由雨水灌溉，提供水、电和渔业资源。对于EA不断发展的城市来说，气候对水资源的影响将影响水的供应和处理。因此，HyCRISTAL将在城市和农村环境中运营。可用水的变化对东亚地区的气候变化影响至关重要，但对降雨、湖泊、河流和地下水以及极端情况的预测高度不确定。观测到EA“长雨”正在减少；而模型倾向于预测增加（“EA气候悖论”），尽管预测并不一致。这种不确定性从根本上限制了气候信息为政策提供信息的效用。因此，HyCRISTAL将充分利用目前的预测来量化用户相关数量的不确定性，并提供突破性的研究，以了解和减少目前限制决策的不确定性。HyCRISTAL将与用户合作，提供世界领先的气候研究，量化自然变率的不确定性，包括那些以前未评估的气候强迫的不确定性，以及对这些强迫作出反应的不确定性；包括来自关键过程的不确定性，如对流和陆地-大气耦合，这些不确定性在全球模式中被错误地表示。研究将使人们对导致预测不确定性的机制有新的认识。HyCRISTAL将利用这些信息来了解气候变化信号何时出现的趋势，并为预测提供基于过程的专家判断。与政策制定者合作，跨学科研究（水文学、经济学、工程学、社会科学、生态学和决策学）将量化农村和城市生计的风险，量化气候影响，并为利用气候信息进行决策提供必要的工具。HyCRISTAL将与合作伙伴合作，在5-40年的时间尺度上共同开展决策研究，在两个主要的城市水和政策试点中得到证明，以实现适应性气候智能型农村生计。它们涵盖了非洲部长级环境理事会非洲气候变化方案综合框架的三个“需要领域”中的两个。HyCRISTAL已经与EA的12个合作伙伴进行了合作。HyCRISTAL的顾问委员会将为进一步增加利益相关者的参与提供机制。HyCRISTAL将与FCFA全球和区域项目以及CCKE合作，分享方法，工具，用户需求，专业知识和沟通。独特的是，HyCRISTAL将利用新的LVB-HyNEWS，这是一个由非洲领导的财团，由东非共同体、维多利亚湖流域委员会和国家气象和水文机构管理，非洲气象部长级会议作为观察员。HyCRISTAL将通过合作直接建立EA能力（HyCRISTAL 25个co - i中有11个是非洲人，9个全职在非洲），包括数据收集和有针对性的研讨会和教学。HyCRISTAL将提供影响的证据，其新的和深刻的气候科学见解将远远超过其持续时间。它将通过在试点中应用新的认识，利用共同的方法和基础设施经验，促进政策制定，实现大规模影响的转型变革，为气候适应型基础设施和生计的决策提供支持。HyCRISTAL将结合用户导向和基于科学的管理工具，确保最新的物理科学、工程和社会科学产生最大的影响。HyCRISTAL将为FCFA的目标提供出色的产出；与LVB-HyNEWS的协同效应将增加这些，并确保在HyCRISTAL之后使用寿命更长。

项目成果

Assessing the impact of climate change on soil erosion in East Africa using a convection-permitting climate model

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac10e1
• 发表时间: 2021-08-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Chapman, Sarah;Birch, Cathryn E.;Marsham, John H.
• 通讯作者: Marsham, John H.

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Rainfall in Eastern Africa in a Convection-Permitting Climate Model

在允许对流的气候模型中气候变化对东非极端降雨的影响

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0851.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Chapman S

The Leeds Africa Climate Hackathon - experiences of running a hackathon and highlights of results

• DOI: 10.1002/wea.4246
• 发表时间: 2022-06-24
• 期刊: WEATHER
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Crook, Julia;Marsham, John H.;Ochieng, Willis
• 通讯作者: Ochieng, Willis

FCFA HyCRISTAL Climate Narrative Rural Infographic and Brief

FCFA HyCRISTAL 气候叙事农村信息图和简介

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Burgin L

Impact of climate change on crop suitability in sub-Saharan Africa in parameterized and convection-permitting regional climate models

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9daf
• 发表时间: 2020-09-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Chapman, Sarah;Birch, Cathryn;Marsham, John
• 通讯作者: Marsham, John