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Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS)

确保对间断和激增事件的多学科理解和预测 (SMURPHS)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N006143/1
负责人：
Gabriele Hegerl
金额：
$ 28.41万
依托单位：
University of Edinburgh
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN006143%2F1
关键词：
Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding Prediction Hiatus

项目摘要

Climate is currently changing mostly because of additional greenhouse gases, emitted through human activity, which are heating up the planet. Since future warming of climate is likely to cause damage to societies, governments are coordinating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to avoid these damaging consequences. However, despite the continuing rises in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the rate of warming of the Earth's surface has declined somewhat since the 1990s. While it is tempting to find a simple reason for this slowing (or "hiatus") in global surface warming, the climate system is extremely complex and there are many factors which can explain the lumps and bumps in the surface temperature record which also include increases (or "surges") in the rate of warming. The goal of our proposed programme of research is to understand much more fully how all the contributing factors can explain past hiatus and surge (H/S) events and this will ultimately help improve predictions of future climate change over the coming decades and far into the future.The potential causes of H/S events includes: natural (so-called unforced) climate variability, due to complex interplay between the atmosphere, oceans and land; natural climate change due to volcanic eruptions or changes in the brightness of the sun; changes in how heat is moved into the deep oceans due to natural variations or human-caused factors; changes in emissions of gases such as methane due to human activity; limitations in the distribution of temperature observations, such that the hiatus is partly an artefact of imperfect observations. Rather than one single cause it is likely that H/S events are caused by a combination of factors. This is why a large team with a broad range of expertise is required to evaluate the different processes together. Our project, Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events (SMURPHS) has brought together a comprehensive community of researchers from 9 UK institutes supported by 5 project partners including the Met Office who are experts in the atmosphere, the oceans and the land surface.SMURPHS has 3 broad objectives, achieved through 6 research themes, which exploit theory, observations and detailed computer modelling. Objective 1 is to build a basic framework for interpreting H/S events in terms of energy moving between the atmosphere and ocean and to determine characteristics of and similarities between H/S events. Objective 2 is to understand mechanisms that could trigger H/S events and extend their length, considering both human and natural factors. Objective 3 is to assess whether H/S events can be predicted and what information is needed for near-term prediction of climate over coming decades which is important for how societies adapt to change. To meet these objectives scientists from a range of different disciplines will work on each of these possibilities and communicate their findings across the team. SMURPHS will produce a wide-ranging synthesis of its results.SMURPHS will have many beneficiaries. Beyond the global scientific community, improved understanding of H/S events is important at national and international levels for designing policies to control future greenhouse gas emissions and for effective adaptation to climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments have deeply influenced climate policy development at the international and national levels. Scientists involved in SMURPHS have contributed significantly to previous IPCC reports, and SMURPHS science and scientists would contribute significantly to future such assessments.

目前气候变化的主要原因是人类活动排放的温室气体增加，使地球变暖。由于未来气候变暖可能对社会造成损害，各国政府正在协调努力减少温室气体排放，以避免这些破坏性后果。然而，尽管大气温室气体浓度持续上升，自20世纪90年代以来，地球表面的变暖速度有所下降。虽然很容易找到全球地表变暖减缓（或“中断”）的一个简单原因，但气候系统极其复杂，有许多因素可以解释地表温度记录中的起伏，其中也包括变暖速度的增加（或“激增”）。我们提出的研究计划的目标是更全面地了解所有促成因素如何解释过去的中断和激增（H/S）事件，这将最终有助于改进对未来几十年乃至未来很长一段时间内未来气候变化的预测。H/S事件的潜在原因包括：由于大气、海洋和陆地之间复杂的相互作用，自然的（所谓的非强迫的）气候变率；由火山爆发或太阳亮度变化引起的自然气候变化；由于自然变化或人为因素，热量进入深海的方式发生了变化；由人类活动引起的甲烷等气体排放的变化；温度观测分布上的限制，使得间断部分是观测不完善造成的。而不是一个单一的原因，这是可能的H/S事件是由多种因素的组合。这就是为什么需要一个拥有广泛专业知识的大型团队来共同评估不同的过程。我们的项目，确保中断和激增事件的多学科理解和预测（SMURPHS）汇集了来自9个英国研究所的研究人员的综合社区，由5个项目合作伙伴支持，包括英国气象局，他们是大气，海洋和陆地表面的专家。SMURPHS有3个广泛的目标，通过6个研究主题来实现，这些主题利用理论，观察和详细的计算机建模。目标1是建立一个从大气和海洋之间能量移动的角度解释H/S事件的基本框架，确定H/S事件的特征和相似之处。目标2是了解触发H/S事件的机制，并在考虑人为因素和自然因素的情况下延长其长度。目标3是评估H/S事件是否可以预测，以及需要哪些信息来对未来几十年的气候进行短期预测，这对社会如何适应变化很重要。为了实现这些目标，来自不同学科的科学家将研究每一种可能性，并在整个团队中交流他们的发现。SMURPHS将产生广泛的综合其结果。SMURPHS将有很多受益者。在全球科学界之外，提高对温室气体/温室气体事件的了解对于制定控制未来温室气体排放和有效适应气候变化的政策也很重要。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的评估深刻影响了国际和国家层面的气候政策制定。参与SMURPHS的科学家为以前的IPCC报告作出了重大贡献，SMURPHS的科学和科学家将为未来的此类评估作出重大贡献。