Attributing and predicting changes in the probability of climate extremes

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We plan to address the following research questions:- in which regions are the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells increasing? - Are climate models able to reproduce these changes?- Can we improve their prediction if using initialized climate forecasts?This work extends in scope and regions studied two existing projects: The first one is the EQUIP project, which predicts changes in European and UK heatwaves and drought. We propose to extend this work by also studying North America and East Asia. These regions show tentative evidence that mean temperature is better predictable by initialized than forced runs over the near-term (about 5 years; e.g., D. Matei; J. Marotzke, pers. Com.). These regions also show interesting and challenging changes in observed patterns of frequency and intensity of temperature extremes . The second project we plan to build on is a project that works towards attributing changes in worldwide frequency of hot and cold extremes, and this proposal extends her work from use of a single model (HadGEM1) to use of the CMIP5 archive. This will much increase the impact of her results, and provide highly relevant information to the authors of IPCC chapters 10 and 11 (see pathways to impact).