Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action

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Drought and flood events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, with significant impacts on long term development, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. Existing early warning systems (EWS) whilst improving remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations. Too often agencies and communities are only able to respond after a disaster has occurred rather than in advance, for a number of complex reasons. This project will address two of the primary limitations of EWS that hinder effective action in the face of hazard risks by; 1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons. 2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information. Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money. Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness actionThe FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.