Towards Forecast-based Preparedness Action (ForPAc): Probabilistic forecast information for defensible preparedness decision-making and action

迈向基于预测的准备行动（ForPAc）：用于防御准备决策和行动的概率预测信息

• 批准号: NE/P000673/1
• 负责人: Martin Todd
• 金额: $ 159.82万
• 依托单位: University of Sussex
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP000673%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; Forecast; based; Preparedness; Action

Drought and flood events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, with significant impacts on long term development, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. Existing early warning systems (EWS) whilst improving remain insufficient to protect vulnerable populations. Too often agencies and communities are only able to respond after a disaster has occurred rather than in advance, for a number of complex reasons. This project will address two of the primary limitations of EWS that hinder effective action in the face of hazard risks by; 1. Increasing the credibility and pertinence of hazard forecasts, by developing improved weather-climate forecasts and associated livelihood impacts over a range of 'seamless' lead times from days to seasons. 2. Overcoming barriers to preparedness action in advance of hazard events through the development and trialling of systematic and defensible approaches based on forecast information. Our project consortium brings together world-renowned research institutes in the UK and East Africa with expertise in forecasting science, hazard impacts and vulnerability, with agencies responsible for EWS and humanitarian action. By building on strong and well-established existing partnerships we will ensure effective collaboration, co-production and integration of research directly into practical application. Our project focuses on a set of existing EWS for flood and drought in Kenya, providing a strong platform for operationalizing and rapid uptake of results, new approaches and tools. The EWS case studies include both urban and rural contexts and are characteristic of hazard and development situations across much of Africa. Through our extensive consortium networks and parallel projects we will share the benefits and lessons with similar systems across Africa and maximise added value and value for money. Our scientific advances will include development and evaluation of state-of-the-art weather-climate risk forecasts expressed in a probabilistic form. The physical basis of forecast skill will be established. These products will be linked to decision-relevant impacts on agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods. Our hazard risk forecast products with associated skill assessment, will be co-developed together with those agencies who operate EWS and plan for preparedness actions. In this way we will ensure the pertinence and credibility of forecast products making them more suitable for uptake. We will incorporate these new forecast products into leading on-line hazard risk portals.Successful uptake requires careful integration with other information sources and effective communication to the range of users. Critically, decision makers need to have confidence in the information but also effective ways of using the information for disaster risk reduction. To this end, we will develop and evaluate novel methodologies and practical tools of Forecast based Action that, by linking forecasts' attributes to risk reduction actions in well defined action plans, overcome institutional and technical barriers to preparedness actionThe FbA approaches must take account of the reality of the decision-making context in which the various actors have complex agendas, priorities, and cultures related to risk. We will adopt a set of flexible strategies to apply these approaches within a range of EWS contexts. For this reason, our demonstration projects have been chosen to be characteristic of similar contexts elsewhere and lessons learned will be shared, and generalised where possible, to other regions.

干旱和洪水事件仍然是撒哈拉以南非洲生命和生计的主要威胁，由于人口的高度暴露和脆弱性，对长期发展产生重大影响。现有的预警系统虽然有所改善，但仍不足以保护弱势群体。由于一些复杂的原因，各机构和社区往往只能在灾害发生后而不是事先作出反应。本项目将通过以下方式解决预警系统的两个主要局限性：1.提高灾害预报的可信度和针对性，方法是在从几天到几个季节的“无缝”提前期内改进天气-气候预报和相关生计影响。2.通过根据预报信息制定和试行系统的、可防御的办法，克服灾害事件发生前采取备灾行动的障碍。我们的项目联盟汇集了英国和东非的世界知名研究机构，这些研究机构在预测科学、灾害影响和脆弱性方面具有专业知识，并有负责预警系统和人道主义行动的机构。通过建立强大和完善的现有伙伴关系，我们将确保有效的合作，共同生产和研究直接融入实际应用。我们的项目侧重于肯尼亚现有的一套洪水和干旱预警系统，为实施和快速吸收成果、新方法和工具提供了一个强大的平台。预警系统的案例研究包括城市和农村的情况，是非洲大部分地区灾害和发展情况的特点。通过我们广泛的联盟网络和平行项目，我们将与非洲各地的类似系统分享收益和经验教训，并最大限度地提高附加值和资金价值。我们的科学进步将包括发展和评估以概率形式表示的最先进的天气气候风险预报。建立预测技能的物理基础。这些产品将与对农业和畜牧业生计的决策相关影响挂钩。我们的灾害风险预测产品与相关的技能评估，将共同开发与那些机构谁经营预警系统和计划准备行动。通过这种方式，我们将确保预测产品的针对性和可信度，使其更适合采用。我们将把这些新的预报产品纳入主要的在线灾害风险门户网站，成功地采用这些产品需要与其他信息来源仔细整合，并与广大用户进行有效沟通。至关重要的是，决策者需要对信息有信心，但也需要有有效的方法利用信息减少灾害风险。为此，我们将开发和评估基于预测的行动的新方法和实用工具，通过将预测属性与明确的行动计划中的风险降低行动联系起来，克服准备行动的制度和技术障碍。FbA方法必须考虑到决策环境的现实，其中各种参与者具有复杂的议程，优先事项和与风险相关的文化。我们将采用一套灵活的策略，在一系列EWS环境中应用这些方法。因此，我们选择的示范项目具有其他地区类似背景的特点，并将分享经验教训，并在可能的情况下推广到其他地区。

项目成果

A broad scale summary of existing early warning systemsin Kenya and regional initiatives in the Greater Horn of Africa

对肯尼亚现有预警系统和大非洲之角区域举措的广泛总结

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Ambani, M.

Application of TAMSAT-ALERT soil moisture forecasts for planting date decision support in Africa

• DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2022.993511
• 发表时间: 2023-01
• 期刊: Graefe's Archive for Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology
• 作者: E. Black;D. Asfaw;Alex Sananka;S. Aston;V. Boult;Ross Maidment

Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya

• DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2020.111886
• 发表时间: 2019-11
• 期刊: Remote Sensing of Environment
• 影响因子: 13.5
• 作者: A. Barrett;S. Duivenvoorden;Edward E. Salakpi;James M. Muthoka;J. Mwangi;Seb Oliver;P. Rowhani

Validating commonly used drought indicators in Kenya

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac16a2
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Andrew Bowell;Edward E. Salakpi;Kiswendsida H. Guigma;James M. Muthoka;John Mwangi;P. Rowhani

Co-production of African weather and climate services. Second edition. Manual

共同制作非洲天气和气候服务。

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Carter S