Drivers Of Change In mid-Latitude weather Events (DOCILE)

中纬度天气事件变化的驱动因素 (DOCILE)

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/P002099/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2017 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The role of external drivers of climate change in mid-latitude weather events, particularly that of human influence on climate, arouses intense scientific, policy and public interest. In February 2014, the UK Prime Minister stated he "suspected a link" between the flooding at the time and anthropogenic climate change, but the scientific community was, and remains, frustratingly unable to provide a more quantitative assessment. Quantifying the role of climate change in extreme weather events has financial significance as well: at present, impact-relevant climate change will be primarily felt through changes in extreme events. While slow-onset processes can exacerbate (or ameliorate) the impact of individual weather events, any change in the probability of occurrence of these events themselves could overwhelm this effect. While this is known to be a problem, very little is known about the magnitude of such changes in occurrence probabilities, an important knowledge gap this project aims to address.The 2015 Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC has given renewed urgency to understanding relatively subtle changes in extreme weather through its call for research into the impacts of a 1.5oC versus 2oC increase in global temperatures, to contribute to an IPCC Special Report in 2018. Few, if any, mid-latitude weather events can be unambiguously attributed to external climate drivers in the sense that these events would not have happened at all without those drivers. Hence any comprehensive assessment of the cost of anthropogenic climate change and different levels of warming in the future must quantify the impact of changing risks of extreme weather, including subtle changes in the risks of relatively 'ordinary' events. The potential, and significance, of human influence on climate affecting the occupancy of the dynamical regimes that give rise to extreme weather in mid-latitudes has long been noted, but only recently have the first tentative reports of an attributable change in regime occupancy begun to emerge. A recent example is the 2014 floods in the Southern UK, which are thought to have occurred not because of individually heavy downpours, but because of a more persistent jet. Quantifying such changes presents a challenge because high atmospheric resolution is required for realistic simulation of the processes that give rise to weather regimes, while large ensembles are required to quantify subtle but potentially important changes in regime occupancy statistics and event frequency. Under this project we propose, for the first time, to apply a well-established large-ensemble methodology that allows explicit simulation of changing event probabilities to a global seasonal-forecast-resolution model. We aim to answer the following question: over Europe, does the dynamical response to human influence on climate, manifest through changing occupancy of circulation regimes and event frequency, exacerbate or counteract the thermodynamic response, which is primarily manifest through increased available moisture and energy in individual events?Our focus is on comparing present-day conditions with the counterfactual "world that might have been" without human influence on climate, and comparing 1.5 degree and 2 degree future scenarios. While higher forcing provides higher signal-to-noise, interpretation is complicated by changing drivers and the potential for a non-linear response. We compensate for a lower signal with unprecedentedly large ensembles. Event attribution has been recognised by the WCRP as a key component of any comprehensive package of climate services. NERC science has been instrumental in its development so far: this project will provide a long-overdue integration of attribution research into the broader agenda of understanding the dynamics of mid-latitude weather.
气候变化的外部驱动因素在中纬度天气事件中的作用,特别是人类对气候的影响,引起了科学、政策和公众的强烈兴趣。2014年2月,英国首相表示,他怀疑当时的洪水与人为气候变化之间存在联系,但令人沮丧的是,科学界一直无法提供更定量的评估。量化气候变化在极端天气事件中的作用也具有财务意义:目前,与影响相关的气候变化将主要通过极端事件的变化来感受。虽然缓慢发生的过程可能会加剧(或缓解)个别天气事件的影响,但这些事件发生的概率本身的任何变化都可能压倒这种影响。虽然这是一个已知的问题,但人们对这种发生概率变化的幅度知之甚少,这是该项目旨在解决的一个重要知识缺口。2015年《联合国气候变化框架公约》的《巴黎协定》通过呼吁研究全球气温上升1.5摄氏度与2摄氏度的影响,再次赋予了解极端天气相对细微变化的紧迫性,为2018年政府间气候变化专门委员会的特别报告做出贡献。很少(如果有的话)中纬度天气事件可以明确地归因于外部气候驱动因素,因为如果没有这些驱动因素,这些事件根本不会发生。因此,对人为气候变化和未来不同程度变暖的成本进行任何全面评估,都必须量化极端天气风险变化的影响,包括相对“普通”事件风险的微妙变化。人类对气候的影响对引起中纬度极端天气的动力系统的占有率产生影响的可能性和重要性早已被注意到,但直到最近才开始出现关于系统占有率可归因于变化的第一批试探性报告。最近的一个例子是2014年英国南部的洪水,人们认为洪水的发生并不是因为个别的倾盆大雨,而是因为一股更持久的急流。量化这种变化是一项挑战,因为对于产生天气状况的过程的现实模拟需要高大气分辨率,而需要大型集合来量化制度占用统计数据和事件频率的细微但潜在的重要变化。在该项目下,我们首次提出应用一种成熟的大集合方法,允许对全球季节性预报分辨率模式的变化事件概率进行显式模拟。我们的目标是回答以下问题:在欧洲,对人类影响气候的动力反应,是通过改变环流机制和事件频率来表现出来的,是加剧还是抵消了热力学反应,这主要表现在个别事件中可用水分和能量的增加?我们的重点是比较目前的条件和如果没有人类对气候影响的话可能会发生的情况,并比较1.5度和2度的未来情景。虽然更高的强迫提供了更高的信噪比,但由于驱动因素的变化和可能的非线性响应,解释变得复杂。我们用空前庞大的合奏来弥补较低的信号。事件归因已被世界气候变化方案确认为任何综合气候服务方案的关键组成部分。到目前为止,NERC的科学在其发展中发挥了重要作用:该项目将把早就应该进行的归属研究整合到更广泛的议程中,了解中纬度天气的动态。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world
评估变暖世界中行星波放大风险的变化
  • DOI:
    10.1002/asl.929
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3
  • 作者:
    Huntingford C
  • 通讯作者:
    Huntingford C
Shorter cyclone clusters modulate changes in European wintertime precipitation extremes
  • DOI:
    10.1088/1748-9326/abbde7
  • 发表时间:
    2020-12-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    6.7
  • 作者:
    Bevacqua, Emanuele;Zappa, Giuseppe;Shepherd, Theodore G.
  • 通讯作者:
    Shepherd, Theodore G.
The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement.
《巴黎协定》面临诸多挑战。
Author Correction: Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C
作者更正:排放预算和路径与将升温限制在1.5°C一致
  • DOI:
    10.1038/s41561-018-0153-1
  • 发表时间:
    2018
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    18.3
  • 作者:
    Millar R
  • 通讯作者:
    Millar R
Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 °C warmer world
  • DOI:
    10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78
  • 发表时间:
    2018-05
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    6.7
  • 作者:
    J. Hosking;David A. MacLeod;Tony Phillips;C. Holmes;Peter A. G. Watson;Emily Shuckburgh;Daniel M. Mitchell
  • 通讯作者:
    J. Hosking;David A. MacLeod;Tony Phillips;C. Holmes;Peter A. G. Watson;Emily Shuckburgh;Daniel M. Mitchell
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Myles Allen其他文献

87. Outcomes of primary vs revision TLIF following decompression alone in degenerative spondylolisthesis: a retrospective propensity score matched study
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.spinee.2024.06.530
  • 发表时间:
    2024-09-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Tomoyuki Asada;Sarthak Mohanty;Tejas Subramanian;Kevin DiSilvestro;Chad Simon;Nishtha Singh;Kasra Araghi;Olivia Tuma;Maximilian Korsun;Avani Sudhir Vaishnav;Eric Mai;Joshua Zhang;Cole Kwas;Myles Allen;Eric Kim;Annika Heuer;Sheeraz A Qureshi;Sravisht Iyer
  • 通讯作者:
    Sravisht Iyer
P228. Association of prolonged preoperative symptom duration with poor outcomes following percutaneous transforaminal endoscopic lumbar discectomy
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.spinee.2024.06.351
  • 发表时间:
    2024-09-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Eric Mai;Eric Kim;Cole Kwas;Joshua Zhang;Kasra Araghi;Maximilian Korsun;Avani Sudhir Vaishnav;Tomoyuki Asada;Nishtha Singh;Annika Heuer;Chad Simon;Myles Allen;Olivia Tuma;James Dowdell;Evan Sheha;Sheeraz A Qureshi;Sravisht Iyer
  • 通讯作者:
    Sravisht Iyer
P156. Preoperative physical therapy decreased length of stay and improved early postoperative mobility in patients with sarcopenia undergoing adult spinal deformity surgery
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.spinee.2024.06.176
  • 发表时间:
    2024-09-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Takashi Hirase;Francis Campana Lovecchio;Chukwuebuka Achebe;Myles Allen;Gregory Kazarian;Michael Mazzzucco;Hiroyuki Nakarai;Han Jo Kim
  • 通讯作者:
    Han Jo Kim
Experiences of Acculturation Stress in First-Generation Immigrant Children: Examining the Relationship Among Acculturation Stress, Depression, and Family Dynamics
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s12134-024-01210-4
  • 发表时间:
    2024-12-09
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    1.800
  • 作者:
    Myles Allen;Belinda Armenta;Elizabeth R. Watters;Laleh Aflatooni;Laurie Sorenson
  • 通讯作者:
    Laurie Sorenson
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
2023年全球气候变化指标:气候系统状况和人类影响关键指标的年度更新
  • DOI:
    10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024
  • 发表时间:
    2024
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    11.4
  • 作者:
    P. Forster;Christopher J. Smith;Tristram Walsh;W. Lamb;Robin D. Lamboll;Bradley Hall;M. Hauser;Aurélien Ribes;D. Rosen;N. Gillett;Matthew D. Palmer;J. Rogelj;K. von Schuckmann;B. Trewin;Myles Allen;R. Andrew;Richard A. Betts;A. Borger;T. Boyer;Jiddu A. Broersma;C. Buontempo;Samantha Burgess;C. Cagnazzo;Lijing Cheng;P. Friedlingstein;A. Gettelman;Johannes Gütschow;Masayoshi Ishii;Stuart Jenkins;Xin Lan;Colin P. Morice;Jens Mühle;Christopher Kadow;John J. Kennedy;R. Killick;P. Krummel;J. Minx;G. Myhre;Vaishali Naik;G. Peters;Anna Pirani;J. Pongratz;C. Schleussner;S. Seneviratne;S. Szopa;Peter Thorne;M. Kovilakam;Elisa Majamäki;J. Jalkanen;M. V. van Marle;R. Hoesly;Robert Rohde;D. Schumacher;G. R. van der Werf;Russ Vose;K. Zickfeld;Xuebin Zhang;V. Masson;Panmao Zhai
  • 通讯作者:
    Panmao Zhai

Myles Allen的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Myles Allen', 18)}}的其他基金

A practical tool and robust framework for evaluating greenhouse gas emissions from land-based activities
用于评估陆上活动温室气体排放的实用工具和稳健框架
  • 批准号:
    NE/T004053/1
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Attributing impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather in Africa
外部气候驱动因素对非洲极端天气的影响
  • 批准号:
    NE/K006479/1
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Climate Change Predictions with a Fully Resolved Stratosphere
完全解析平流层的气候变化预测
  • 批准号:
    NE/H020462/1
  • 财政年份:
    2011
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
End-to-end Quantification of Uncertainty for Impacts Prediction (EQUIP)
影响预测不确定性的端到端量化 (EQUIP)
  • 批准号:
    NE/H003495/1
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Constraining the response of the hydrological cycle, land surface and regional weather to global change (HYDRA)
限制水文循环、地表和区域天气对全球变化的响应(HYDRA)
  • 批准号:
    NE/I00680X/1
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Change in the Atlantic Atmosphere Ocean System: ChAAOS
大西洋大气海洋系统的变化:ChAAOS
  • 批准号:
    NE/G007799/1
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Understanding the role of the ocean in non-flux-adjusted perturbed physics ensembles
了解海洋在非通量调整扰动物理系综中的作用
  • 批准号:
    NE/E018955/1
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
The physics of cloud and water vapour feedbacks in perturbed-physics ensembles
扰动物理系综中云和水汽反馈的物理现象
  • 批准号:
    NE/D012287/1
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
The physics of cloud and water vapour feedbacks in perturbed-physics ensembles
扰动物理系综中云和水汽反馈的物理现象
  • 批准号:
    NE/D011027/1
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Climateprediction.net/PRECIS: Transferring the tools and skills for regional climate prediction.
Climateprediction.net/PRECIS:转让区域气候预测的工具和技能。
  • 批准号:
    NE/D52189X/1
  • 财政年份:
    2006
  • 资助金额:
    $ 74.01万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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Warm Pliocene mid-latitude upwelling sites, with implications to future southwestern North America aridity under climate change
温暖的上新世中纬度上升流地点,对气候变化下未来北美西南部干旱的影响
  • 批准号:
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  • 批准号:
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Reconstruction of the response of the biodiversity/migration of Western European vegetation to climate change (CC) from the Oligocene and Mid-Miocene
重建渐新世和中中新世西欧植被的生物多样性/迁移对气候变化(CC)的响应
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COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TRACKING PCO2, REGIONAL CLIMATE, AND VEGETATION CHANGE DURING MID-MIOCENE GLOBAL WARMING THROUGH THE EXCEPTIONAL PLANT RECORDS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, USA
合作研究:通过美国西北太平洋地区的特殊植物记录追踪中新世中期全球变暖期间的 PCO2、区域气候和植被变化
  • 批准号:
    1925204
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COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TRACKING PCO2, REGIONAL CLIMATE, AND VEGETATION CHANGE DURING MID-MIOCENE GLOBAL WARMING THROUGH THE EXCEPTIONAL PLANT RECORDS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, USA
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Career Advancement and Culture Change in Biomedical Research: Group Peer Mentoring Outcomes and Mechanisms
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    10201663
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Career Advancement and Culture Change in Biomedical Research: Group Peer Mentoring Outcomes and Mechanisms
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    10435458
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Career Advancement and Culture Change in Biomedical Research: Group Peer Mentoring Outcomes and Mechanisms
生物医学研究中的职业发展和文化变革:团体同伴指导的成果和机制
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