Climate Change Predictions with a Fully Resolved Stratosphere

完全解析平流层的气候变化预测

• 批准号: NE/H020462/1
• 负责人: Myles Allen
• 金额: $ 75.54万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FH020462%2F1
• 关键词: Climate; Change; Predictions; Fully; Resolved

Climate model simulations for the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are currently being prepared by climate modelling centres around the world. In this joint project with the Met Office, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model simulations will be performed and analysed using a 'high-top' version of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model that extends to 85km and therefore fully resolves processes in the stratosphere. Simulations of the past (1860-present) and into the future (to 2100) will be carried out. The project will examine the climate change signals predicted by the fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere model and investigate the stratospheric influence on surface climate. These aims will be achieved by careful analysis of the model runs, together with additional experiments to isolate processes, test mechanisms and improve statistical significance. Particular emphasis will be placed on (a) regional and seasonal patterns of surface change, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts over Europe, and (b) detection and attribution studies, exploiting the well-known tropospheric warming / stratospheric cooling signature of anthropogenic influence. Comparisons will be carried out with observations, with corresponding low-top model runs that do not fully resolve the stratosphere and with runs from high-top models carried out by other international climate modelling groups.

目前，世界各地的气候模拟中心正在为政府间气候变化专门委员会(气专委)的下一次评估准备气候模型模拟。在与气象局的这一联合项目中，将使用气象局哈德利中心气候模式的“高顶”版本进行完全耦合的大气-海洋模式模拟并进行分析，该模式延伸到85公里，因此完全解决了平流层的过程。将进行过去(1860-现在)和未来(到2100年)的模拟。该项目将检查完全耦合的海洋-对流层-平流层模式预测的气候变化信号，并调查平流层对地表气候的影响。这些目标将通过仔细分析模型运行，以及隔离过程、测试机制和提高统计显著性的额外实验来实现。将特别重视(A)地表变化的区域和季节模式，特别是北大西洋涛动和对欧洲的影响，以及(B)探测和归属研究，利用众所周知的对流层变暖/平流层冷却特征的人为影响。将与观测进行比较，与不能完全解决平流层的相应低顶模型运行进行比较，并与其他国际气候模型小组进行的高顶模型运行进行比较。

项目成果

Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z
• 发表时间: 2017-06-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Mitchell, Daniel;Davini, Paolo;Allen, Myles
• 通讯作者: Allen, Myles

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2998
• 发表时间: 2016-08-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Allen, Myles R.;Fuglestvedt, Jan S.;Forster, Piers M.
• 通讯作者: Forster, Piers M.

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections.

• DOI: 10.1038/srep18903
• 发表时间: 2016-01-11
• 期刊: Scientific reports
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Shiogama H;Stone D;Emori S;Takahashi K;Mori S;Maeda A;Ishizaki Y;Allen MR
• 通讯作者: Allen MR

Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2492
• 发表时间: 2015-04
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: D. Mitchell;L. Gray;M. Fujiwara;T. Hibino;J. Anstey;W. Ebisuzaki;Y. Harada;C. Long;S. Misios;P. Stott;D. Tan