Impact of El Niño on malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania: observation, improvement and unleashing forecasting potential

厄尔尼诺现象对坦桑尼亚疟疾病媒动态的影响：观察、改进和释放预测潜力

• 批准号: NE/P004407/1
• 负责人: Matthew Baylis
• 金额: $ 33.48万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP004407%2F1
• 关键词: Impact; El; Ni; malaria; vector

El Nino events have been shown to impact significantly on many vector-borne diseases (VBDs), including malaria, dengue, Rift Valley fever and others. While the link between El Nino and disease is well established, the mechanism underlying it is not fully resolved, but probably involves impact of the change in rainfall patterns (often drought and then heavy rain, or vice versa) or altered temperatures brought by El Nino on the vectors themselves. Here we aim to take advantage of the collection over the past 9 years of detailed entomological data on one VBD to detect a perturbation to vector dynamics caused by the current El Nino event. The strength of the current El Nino, the existence of high quality entomological data, the inclusion of the team responsible in this proposal, and access to local meteorological data provide a unique opportunity to understand how El Niño events trigger the emergence of VBDs.We focus on malaria, which remains the VBD with the greatest impact on human mortality and morbidity, and propose new fieldwork in the Kilombero valley area of central Tanzania, where there is a 30% prevalence of infection in people. Malaria is caused by parasitic protozoa of the genus Plasmodium and it is transmitted by female Anopheles mosquitoes. The spatial limits of malaria distribution, its seasonal activity and the mosquito vector dynamics are very sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease.The aim of this proposal is to characterize the chain of connections between the current El Niño event, its impact on regional and local climate, and the subsequent consequences on malaria vectors and malaria burden in Tanzania. This is carried out to better understand how El Nino affects malaria, and in order to build an early warning system prototype for malaria risk in Tanzania. We will achieve this though the use of new and standard technologies to measure mosquito vector properties within the Kilombero Valley. We will undertake 12 months of detailed entomological study in a number of previously-studied villages in the region, in the expectation of detecting a change or perturbation to vector dynamics or behaviour caused by El Nino. These new data will be analysed in the context of the 9 years of historic data already collected between 2006-2015 (this field campaign ended in May 2015), as well as malaria clinical data and different climate datasets, ranging from regional scale satellite estimates to local scale meteorological station data available for the studied region. Detailed weather data for the areas are available from a local weather station, and will be supported by temperature/humidity data collection in the study villages. Based on the findings, we will develop a better understanding of how El Nino impacts on malaria and its vectors (with applicability to a wider range of VBDs) and build a prototype early warning system for malaria risk in Tanzania. This will be a useful resource for local decision makers and public health specialists to target and allow vector control resources in future.

厄尔尼诺现象已被证明对许多病媒传播的疾病产生重大影响，包括疟疾、登革热、裂谷热等。虽然厄尔尼诺现象和疾病之间的联系已经得到证实，但其背后的机制尚未完全解决，但可能涉及降雨模式变化（通常是干旱，然后是大雨，反之亦然）或厄尔尼诺现象带来的温度变化的影响。对媒介本身。在这里，我们的目标是利用收集在过去9年的详细昆虫学数据的一个VBD检测扰动矢量动力学造成的当前厄尔尼诺事件。当前厄尔尼诺现象的强度、高质量昆虫学数据的存在、负责本提案的团队的参与以及当地气象数据的获取，为了解厄尔尼诺事件如何触发VBD的出现提供了独特的机会。我们关注疟疾，它仍然是对人类死亡率和发病率影响最大的VBD，并建议在坦桑尼亚中部的基隆贝罗山谷地区进行新的实地考察，那里的人群感染率为30%。疟疾是由疟原虫属的寄生原生动物引起的，由雌性按蚊传播。疟疾分布的空间限制、季节性活动和蚊子病媒的动态对气候因素以及当地控制疟疾的能力非常敏感，这项建议的目的是说明目前的厄尔尼诺现象、它对区域和当地气候的影响以及随后对疟疾病媒和坦桑尼亚疟疾负担的后果之间的联系。开展这项工作是为了更好地了解厄尔尼诺现象如何影响疟疾，并在坦桑尼亚建立一个疟疾风险预警系统原型。我们将通过使用新的标准技术来测量基隆贝罗山谷内的蚊子媒介特性来实现这一目标。我们将在该区域以前研究过的一些村庄进行12个月的详细昆虫学研究，以期发现厄尔尼诺现象对病媒动态或行为造成的变化或干扰。这些新的数据将在2006-2015年期间收集的9年历史数据（该实地活动于2015年5月结束）以及疟疾临床数据和不同的气候数据集的背景下进行分析，从区域尺度的卫星估计到研究区域的地方尺度气象站数据。这些地区的详细天气数据可从当地气象站获得，并将得到研究村庄温度/湿度数据收集的支持。根据研究结果，我们将更好地了解厄尔尼诺现象对疟疾及其病媒的影响（适用于更广泛的VBDs），并在坦桑尼亚建立疟疾风险预警系统原型。这将是地方决策者和公共卫生专家今后有针对性地利用病媒控制资源的有用资源。

项目成果

Impact of ENSO 2016-17 on regional climate and malaria vector dynamics in Tanzania

2016-17 年 ENSO 对坦桑尼亚区域气候和疟疾媒介动态的影响

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26c7
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Kreppel K