Mechanisms and consequences of tipping points in lowland agricultural landscapes

低地农业景观临界点的机制和后果

• 批准号: NE/P007716/1
• 负责人: Adrian Newton
• 金额: $ 42.14万
• 依托单位: Bournemouth University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP007716%2F1
• 关键词: Mechanisms; consequences; tipping; points; lowland

Ecosystems provide a number of benefits to people, including food and timber production, areas for recreation, pollination of crops, fresh water, and the storage of carbon, which can help reduce the risk of climate change. People also benefit from wildlife, including both plant and animal species, both in terms of their aesthetic value, and from the functional role that such species play in the ecosystems of which they are a part. Many ecosystems in the UK, as in many other parts of the world, are currently at risk because of the combined effects of climate change, aerial pollution, changing patterns of land use and other forms of human disturbance. These factors can interact with each other, leading to major changes in ecosystems, which can affect their ability to provide benefits to people. Research is needed to identify which ecosystems are at risk of rapid transitions occurring, so that appropriate management and policy responses can be identified. Information is also needed on the potential impacts of such ecosystem "tipping points" on humans, through changes in the provision of ecosystem benefits. This project aims to provide this information, by studying the landscapes of Dorset, a southern English county. Here we will examine data that have been collected over a period of 80 years in a variety of different types of ecosystem, to analyse the changes that have occurred. We will use this information to see whether any tipping points have occurred in the past, or might occur in the future, which could affect human society. We will also study tipping points by comparing ecosystems along gradients of environmental degradation. In addition, we will explore whether the environmental degradation that has already happened in Dorset, or might happen in future, could affect employment and prospects for economic development. We will test the idea that factors such as climate change, aerial pollution and land use change could cause a tipping point in ecosystems, which could have major economic consequences. We will achieve this using a combination of field data and computer models, which we will use to forecast how such impacts might occur at the landscape scale. The project will help increase understanding of how major ecological changes occur in agricultural landscapes typical of much of the UK, and their potential impacts. This information will be of value for identifying which ecosystems are particularly at risk of tipping points, what are the processes that cause such tipping points, and what the implications of them might be for human society. We will also examine how such problems might be averted in future, through the development of appropriate management and policy responses.

生态系统为人类提供了许多好处，包括粮食和木材生产、娱乐场所、作物授粉、淡水和碳储存，这有助于降低气候变化的风险。人们还受益于野生动物，包括植物和动物物种，无论是在其美学价值方面，还是在这些物种在其所属的生态系统中发挥的功能作用方面。英国的许多生态系统，就像世界上许多其他地方一样，由于气候变化、空气污染、土地利用模式的变化和其他形式的人类干扰的综合影响，目前正处于危险之中。这些因素可以相互作用，导致生态系统发生重大变化，从而影响其造福人类的能力。需要开展研究，以确定哪些生态系统面临发生快速过渡的风险，从而确定适当的管理和政策应对措施。还需要了解此类生态系统“临界点”通过改变生态系统惠益的提供方式对人类产生的潜在影响。本项目旨在通过研究英国南部多塞特郡的景观来提供这些信息。在这里，我们将研究在80年的时间里在各种不同类型的生态系统中收集的数据，以分析已经发生的变化。我们将利用这些信息来看看过去是否发生过任何临界点，或者将来是否可能发生任何可能影响人类社会的临界点。我们还将通过比较环境退化沿着梯度的生态系统来研究临界点。此外，我们还将探讨多塞特郡已经发生或未来可能发生的环境退化是否会影响就业和经济发展前景。我们将检验气候变化、空气污染和土地使用变化等因素可能导致生态系统出现临界点的想法，这可能会产生重大的经济后果。我们将使用现场数据和计算机模型相结合来实现这一目标，我们将使用这些模型来预测这种影响如何在景观尺度上发生。该项目将有助于增加对英国大部分地区典型农业景观如何发生重大生态变化及其潜在影响的了解。这一信息将有助于确定哪些生态系统特别有可能出现临界点，哪些过程会导致这种临界点，以及这些临界点可能对人类社会产生何种影响。我们还将研究今后如何通过发展适当的管理和政策反应来避免这些问题。

项目成果

Historical data reveal contrasting habitat amount relationships with plant biodiversity

历史数据揭示了栖息地数量与植物生物多样性之间的对比关系

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.06301
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Ecography
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Ridding L

Detecting ecological thresholds and tipping points in the natural capital assets of a protected coastal ecosystem

检测受保护的沿海生态系统的自然资本资产的生态阈值和临界点

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2018.10.006
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
• 作者: Watson S

Trends in natural capital, ecosystem services and economic development in Dorset.

多塞特郡自然资本、生态系统服务和经济发展的趋势。

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Newton A. C.

Ecological restoration of agricultural land can improve its contribution to economic development.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247850
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Newton AC;Evans PM;Watson SCL;Ridding LE;Brand S;McCracken M;Gosal AS;Bullock JM
• 通讯作者: Bullock JM

Ongoing, but slowing, habitat loss in a rural landscape over 85 years

• DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00944-2
• 发表时间: 2019-12-04
• 期刊: LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Ridding, Lucy E.;Watson, Stephen C. L.;Bullock, James M.
• 通讯作者: Bullock, James M.