Our Phosphorus Future (OPF)

为什么我们要关注磷？磷是植物和动物生长的必需元素，是其他元素无法替代的。在过去的50年里，磷肥提高了作物产量，为数十亿人和牲畜提供了食物。世界粮食安全取决于农民能否获得足够的磷肥。然而，用于肥料的磷的主要来源是开采岩石，这些岩石只在少数几个国家发现，主要位于世界上政治不稳定的地区。包括英国在内的许多国家都依赖进口磷矿来生产食品。随着人口的增长和环境的变化，世界范围内对磷矿储量的需求显著增加，预计未来还将继续增加。因此，磷酸盐的岩石储量越来越少，剩下的储量质量较差，往往受到潜在有毒元素铀和镉的污染。这些担忧推动了化肥价格的波动和潜在的政治不稳定。目前，世界上六分之一的农民买不起磷肥。与此同时，由于不断增长的人口更多地使用磷肥以及吸收和排泄含磷食物，向环境中调动的磷增加了四倍。由此导致的河流、湖泊和沿海水域中磷浓度的增加正在造成广泛的富营养化，其特征是有毒藻类大量繁殖、氧气“死区”和鱼类死亡。富营养化被认为是破坏地球淡水生态系统的最大原因。需要什么？磷安全是实现全球社会诸多目标的关键。其中包括粮食安全和提供清洁水、生态系统和肥沃土壤的完整性、维持生计、人类健康和地缘政治安全。然而，关于我们如何实现一个安全的含磷未来，全球几乎没有共同的思考。虽然基础科学是理解问题本质和设计技术解决方案的关键，但我们对磷科学技术的理解只是解决方案的一部分。在区域或全球范围内缺乏与磷有关的政策，公众意识中对磷的关注长期不足。联合国环境规划署已经承认，迫切需要确定我们如何管理磷。这个项目交付了什么。认识到这些全球性挑战，“我们磷的未来”项目旨在为全球磷科学界就如何最好地实现磷安全达成科学共识。这个项目的全球相关性已经从合作伙伴的财政支持和英国和世界各地科学家的承诺得到了证明。英国科学家将领导一个由领先的磷科学家和利益相关者组成的国际网络，共同撰写“我们的磷未来”合成报告。该报告将载有关于区域和全球范围内磷流动的权威和商定的证据基础，审查利用新技术实现更可持续的磷利用的机会，并评估人类行为和健康对磷循环的影响。该报告针对的是科学家和利益相关者，如国家和地方政府、供水和污水管理机构、农业顾问、环境监管机构和国际决策者。它将在高调的活动上发布，也将在网上免费提供。该报告将成为科学家和政策制定者之间互动的催化剂，以便在项目的2年时间尺度之外发展全球磷管理。为了提高公众对磷问题的认识，报告发布的同时还将开展一场全球媒体宣传活动。

Why do we care about phosphorus? Phosphorus is an essential element for both plant and animal growth and is not replaceable by other elements. In the last 50 years phosphate fertilisers have enhanced crop yields, providing food for billions of people and livestock. World food security is dependent on sufficient access to phosphorus fertilisers for farmers. However, the main source of phosphorus for fertilisers is mining of rocks found only in a few countries, mainly located in politically unstable regions of the world. Many countries, including the UK, rely on imports of phosphate rock for food production. With increasing human population growth and changes in, the worldwide demand for rock phosphate reserves has increased significantly and is projected to continue in the future. Consequently, rock reserves of phosphate are becoming increasingly scarce and the reserves that remain are of poorer quality, often being contaminated with the potentially toxic elements, uranium and cadmium. These concerns have driven fluctuations of fertiliser price and potential political instability. Currently a sixth of the world's farmers cannot afford P fertilisers. At the same time, the mobilisation of phosphorus into the environment has increased fourfold due to greater use of phosphorus fertilisers and uptake and excretion of phosphorus-containing food by the growing human population. The resulting increased phosphorus concentrations in rivers, lakes and coastal waters is causing widespread eutrophication, characterised by toxic algal blooms, oxygen "dead zones" and fish kills. Eutrophication is considered the greatest cause of damage to freshwater ecosystems on the planet.What is needed? Phosphorus security is critical for realising many goals of global society. These include food security and provision of clean water, integrity of ecosystems and fertile soils, maintaining livelihoods, human health and geopolitical security. However, there is little global joined-up thinking about how we can deliver a secure phosphorus future. While the underlying science is key to understanding the nature of the problem and devising technical solutions, our understanding of phosphorus science and technology is only one part of the solution. There is a lack of policy at regional or global scales relating to phosphorus, with phosphorus remaining chronically under-represented within the public consciousness. The United Nations Environment Programme has acknowledged a critical need to identify how we manage phosphorus. What this project delivers. Recognising these global challenges, the 'Our Phosphorus Future' project aims to provide scientific consensus from the global scientific phosphorus community on how to best deliver phosphorus security. The global relevance of this project is demonstrated by the financial support from partners and commitment of UK and worldwide scientists secured already. UK-based scientists will lead an international network of leading phosphorus scientists and stakeholders to co-produce the `Our Phosphorus Future' synthesis report. The report will contain an authoritative and agreed evidence base on phosphorus flows at regional and global scales, examine opportunities for new technologies to enable more sustainable phosphorus use, and evaluate the influence of human behaviour and health on the phosphorus cycle. The report is targeted at scientists and stakeholders, such as national and local governments, water and sewage managers, agricultural advisors, environmental regulators and international policy makers. It will be launched at high profile events and will also be freely-available online. The report will act as a catalyst for interaction between scientists and policy makers to develop global phosphorus management beyond the 2-year timescale of the project. To raise public awareness of phosphorus issues, a global media campaign will accompany the launch of the report.