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The resilience and sustainability of the Mekong delta to changes in water and sediment fluxes (RAMESES)

湄公河三角洲对水和沉积物通量变化的恢复力和可持续性 (RAMESES)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P014704/1
负责人：
Daniel Parsons
金额：
$ 56.18万
依托单位：
University of Hull
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP014704%2F1
关键词：
resilience sustainability Mekong delta changes

项目摘要

The world's 33 largest deltas are being drowned by relative sea level rise and are, as a result, rapidly losing land. This process is also driving an exacerbation of flood risk in these environments, which is placing many large cities, key infrastructure and over 0.5 billion people at risk globally. These issues are most acute for deltas across Southern and Southeast Asia, where an estimated 20% of land will be lost by 2100. These risks are significant. For example, floods during the 2011 Asian monsoon killed an estimated 2000 people and caused ~US$45 billion in economic damage across SE Asia. Moreover, these deltas, and their ecosystem services, underpin regional food security for rapidly growing populations. There is therefore an urgent need to evolve an improved generic understanding of the processes behind the relative sea level rise and flood risk dynamics in these deltaic environments into the future. Significant recent advances have been made in our understanding of many aspects of delta morphodynamics and evolution. This has included work on distributary channel flow processes, bifurcation stability and bar dynamics, and the profound influence of tidal backwater effects on longer-term channel hydro- and sediment dynamics. However, despite this progress there are significant uncertainties around the influence of: i) upstream migrating backwater effects, forced by sea-level rise, on delta bifurcation stability; ii) declining sediment delivery and increased hydrological variability on distributary channel stability; iii) connectivity between the channels and the delta surface on the routing, dispersal and trapping of sediment. Each of these uncertainties are key knowledge gaps that must be addressed for effective delta management, flood risk mitigation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Our project will investigate flow and sediment routing through the Mekong delta across the annual monsoon flood and develop a new generic understanding of the impact of relative sea-level rise and sediment routing processes through distributary channels and key bifurcation sites on the delta. This will be achieved through collection of new state-of-the-art field datasets, development and application of morphodynamic numerical modelling and utilization of system dynamics modelling to guide aquaculture and agriculture adaptations to changes. We will leverage a range of existing links we have to engage with, and communicate the outcomes of the work, to agencies and policy makers in the region and inform water resource planning and mitigation/adaptation strategies in the context of climate change.

世界上33个最大的三角洲正被相对海平面上升淹没，结果是迅速失去土地。这一过程也加剧了这些环境中的洪水风险，使全球许多大城市、关键基础设施和超过5亿人面临风险。这些问题在南亚和东南亚的三角洲地区最为严重，据估计，到2100年，这些地区将失去20%的土地。这些风险是巨大的。例如，2011年亚洲季风期间的洪水造成估计2000人死亡，并在整个东南亚造成约450亿美元的经济损失。此外，这些三角洲及其生态系统服务为快速增长的人口提供了区域粮食安全的基础。因此，迫切需要发展一个更好的一般理解背后的相对海平面上升和洪水风险动态在这些三角洲环境的未来的过程。近年来，我们对三角洲形态动力学和演化的许多方面的理解取得了重大进展。这包括关于分流河道水流过程、分叉稳定性和沙洲动力学的工作，以及潮汐回水效应对长期河道水力和沉积动力学的深远影响。然而，尽管取得了这一进展，但仍存在重大的不确定性，其影响包括：i）上游回水迁移效应，受海平面上升的影响，对三角洲分叉稳定性的影响; ii）沉积物输送量下降和水文变异性增加对分流河道稳定性的影响; iii）河道与三角洲表面之间的连通性对沉积物的路由、分散和截留的影响。这些不确定性中的每一个都是关键的知识差距，必须加以解决，以有效地进行三角洲管理，减轻洪水风险和维护生态系统服务。我们的项目将调查通过湄公河三角洲的流量和泥沙路由在每年的季风洪水和发展的相对海平面上升和沉积物路由过程的影响，通过分流河道和关键分叉点三角洲上的一个新的通用的理解。这将通过收集新的最先进的实地数据集，开发和应用形态动力学数值建模以及利用系统动力学建模来指导水产养殖和农业适应变化来实现。我们将利用我们必须参与的一系列现有联系，并将工作成果传达给该地区的机构和决策者，并为气候变化背景下的水资源规划和减缓/适应战略提供信息。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（8）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Establishing sustainable sediment budgets is critical for climate-resilient mega-deltas

DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fc
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
Environmental Research Letters
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
G. Vasilopoulos;Q. Quan;D. Parsons;S. Darby;V. Tri;N. Hung;I. Haigh;H. Voepel;A. Nicholas;R. Aalto
通讯作者：
G. Vasilopoulos;Q. Quan;D. Parsons;S. Darby;V. Tri;N. Hung;I. Haigh;H. Voepel;A. Nicholas;R. Aalto

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta: results of field observations and integrated coastal-inland modelling

湄公河三角洲盐分入侵动态：实地观测结果和沿海内陆综合模型

DOI：
10.5194/esurf-9-953-2021
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Earth Surface Dynamics
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Eslami S
通讯作者：
Eslami S

River bank instability from unsustainable sand mining in the lower Mekong River

DOI：
10.1038/s41893-019-0455-3
发表时间：
2020-01-13
期刊：
NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
影响因子：
27.6
作者：
Hackney, Christopher R.;Darby, Stephen E.;Houseago, Robert C.
通讯作者：
Houseago, Robert C.

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta; results of field observations and integrated coastal-inland modelling

DOI：
10.5194/esurf-2020-109
发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
Earth Surface Dynamics
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Sepehr Eslami;P. Hoekstra;H. Kernkamp;Nam Nguyen Trung;Dung Do Duc;Hung Nguyen Nghia;Tho Tran Quang;Arthur van Dam;S. Darby;D. Parsons;G. Vasilopoulos;L. Braat;M. van der Vegt
通讯作者：
Sepehr Eslami;P. Hoekstra;H. Kernkamp;Nam Nguyen Trung;Dung Do Duc;Hung Nguyen Nghia;Tho Tran Quang;Arthur van Dam;S. Darby;D. Parsons;G. Vasilopoulos;L. Braat;M. van der Vegt

Supplementary material to "Sand mining far outpaces natural supply in a large alluvial river"

补充材料