MAPS - Models, Assessment, and Policies for Sustainability

MAPS旨在扩大政策、模型和评估的范围，以帮助实现可持续性、公平和人类福祉。经济增长和环境压力之间缺乏足够的绝对脱钩的证据，这表明建立在经济增长基础上的未来轨迹可能是不可能的。我们迫切需要一种新的范式来协调人类福祉与环境可持续性——一种基于“后增长”方法的范式。其理念是，高收入国家应超越将GDP增长作为政策目标的追求，转而追求在减少资源使用的同时改善人类福祉的政策。尽管人们对这一想法越来越感兴趣，但用于气候减缓建模的主要综合评估模型并未考虑增长后的政策或情景。MAPS的目标是扩大决策者可用的政策选择范围，并将增长后情景纳入IPCC和IPBES的主要科学评估。我们的目标是提供新的方法，帮助引导欧洲和世界回到地球边界内，而不损害宝贵的社会福利目标。为此目的，MAPS将利用参与性进程制定新的一揽子政策和方案，然后利用最先进的模拟模型对这些政策进行评估。特别是，它将估计美好生活的资源使用需求，设计具有增长弹性的社会福利制度，将更广泛的环境和社会指标纳入评估模型，并探索如何在实践中实施替代政策。MAPS将提供有关在维持或改善社会成果的同时在地球边界内减少资源使用的政策方面的知识。在这样做时，它将通过扩大政策选择、建模框架和可持续性评估的范围来提高决策能力。

MAPS aims to broaden the range of policies, models, and assessments to help achieve sustainability, equity, and human well-being. The lack of evidence for sufficient absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressures suggests that future trajectories built on economic growth may not be possible. There is an urgent need for a new paradigm that reconciles human well being with environmental sustainability -- one based on a “post-growth” approach. The idea is that high-income countries should move beyond the pursuit of GDP growth as a policy goal, and instead pursue policies that improve human well-being while reducing resource use. Despite increasing interest in this idea, the main integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in climate mitigation modelling do not consider post-growth policies or scenarios. MAPS has the ambition to expand the range of policy options available to policymakers and incorporate post-growth scenarios into the major scientific assessments of the IPCC and IPBES. Our goal is to provide new approaches to help steer Europe and the world back within planetary boundaries without compromising on valuable social welfare goals. To this end, MAPS will use participatory processes to develop new policy packages and scenarios, and then assess these policies using a state-of-the art simulation model. In particular, it will estimate the resource use requirements of a good life, design social welfare systems that are growth-resilient, incorporate a broader range of environmental and social indicators into assessment models, and explore how alternative policies could be implemented in practice. MAPS will provide knowledge about policies that reduce resource use to be within planetary boundaries while maintaining or improving social outcomes. In so doing, it will improve decision-making capacity by broadening the range of policy options, modelling frameworks, and assessments for sustainability.