Towards a Fire Early Warning System for Indonesia (ToFEWSI)

2015年严重的厄尔尼诺现象导致印度尼西亚泥炭地火灾的严重和破坏性增加，突出表明迫切需要开发业务系统来预测潜在的严重火灾事件，以减轻火灾和烟雾的影响。10个东盟国家已正式同意控制泥炭地和森林火灾，迫切需要一个早期火灾预警系统：我们在本提案中解决了这一需求。使用最先进的建模工具，如ECMWF的System 4季节预报模型，可以建立一个用于预测危险燃烧条件的实用“预警”系统，但目前由于对泥炭湿度波动对火灾的影响缺乏了解，特别是在极端干旱期间，1997-98年和2015年的厄尔尼诺事件突出了这一点-有记录以来最强和第二强。目前印度尼西亚的大多数火灾都是为了清理土地而故意焚烧造成的，这一人为因素意味着焚烧可能受到政策和改变的土地管理做法的影响。将科学研究转化为循证政策以及官方对焚烧的监管和限制在印度尼西亚并没有很好地发挥作用，需要采取新的方法。我们计划开发一种新的火灾危险科学预测工具，并影响政策和消防法规：紧急科学和政策研究的新颖结合。该项目将开发一套基于气候、水文和代理的模型，以根据1997年至2014年期间的计算和观察来预测泥炭火灾的发生率，并将使用2015年厄尔尼诺事件来衡量预测工具。我们的工作假设是，增加火灾风险与干泥炭不会引发适当的变化，当地土地所有者在他们使用火的管理做法，如果没有政策提供的激励措施。我们的预期成果是：* 泥炭地火灾发生的业务模型，基于热带泥炭地水文模型，基于代理的模型，以及从最先进的再分析数据和季节预报中获得的季节性气候数据，以及地球观测数据。基于季节性气候预测的泥炭地火灾预警系统。更全面地了解气候、社会经济和地理因素如何相互作用，推动泥炭地火灾。减少苏门答腊廖内省每年火灾次数和烧毁面积的循证政策工具。* 为印度尼西亚新的减少火灾管理战略和政策投入提出基于证据的建议。预测系统将基于网络并可访问，并将预测泥炭地火灾发生的风险，最多可提前三个月，以便有足够的时间在社区中传播对即将发生的风险的认识，并在需要时调动消防资源和其他防火措施。考虑泥炭地火灾发生的非气候驱动因素是至关重要的，因为这将有助于我们捕捉火灾的时空模式在不同地区显示类似的气候制度。非气候驱动的因素也是制定缓解行动的最容易掌握的手段。我们将联合收割机结合我们在气候、社会经济和地理因素方面的工作成果，为泥炭地火灾的发生建立一个多因素模型。该示范系统将根据该地区各机构、市政当局和公司的业务需求，与印度尼西亚利益攸关方密切合作开发。主要利益相关者包括印度尼西亚泥炭地恢复机构、印度尼西亚部、东盟区域烟霾支持单位、当地社区、林业公司、当地和国际研究人员。该模型系统将足够强大和简单，供我们的印度尼西亚利益相关者在内部日常使用，他们将接管该系统，并在自己的服务器上运行和维护。

The severe El Niño episode of 2015 led to a major and damaging increase in Indonesian peatland fire, highlighting an urgent need to develop operational systems to forecast potentially severe fire events in order to mitigate the impacts of fire and haze. 10 ASEAN states have formally agreed to control peatland and forest fires and urgently need an early fire warning system: a need that we address in this proposal. An operational 'early warning' system for forecasting dangerous burning conditions is within reach using state-of-the-art modelling tools, such as the ECMWF's System 4 seasonal forecast model, but is currently hampered by insufficient knowledge about the influence of fluctuations in peat moisture on fire, particularly during periods of extreme drought, highlighted by the 1997-98 and 2015 El Niño episodes- the strongest and second strongest on record. The majority of present-day fires in Indonesia result from deliberate burning for land clearance, and this human factor means that burning can be influenced by policy and altered land management practice. The translation of scientific research into evidence-based policy and the official regulation and restriction of burning do not work well in Indonesia and new approaches are needed. We plan to both develop a new scientific forecasting tool for fire danger and to influence policy and fire regulations: a novel combination of urgent science and policy research.This project will develop a suite of climate-, hydrological- and agent-based modelling to predict the incidence of peat fires based on computations and observations for the period 1997 to 2014, and will use the 2015 El Niño event to benchmark the forecast tools. Our working hypothesis is that the increased fire risk associated with dry peat does not trigger appropriate changes in the management practices adopted by local landowners in their use of fire, if there are no incentives provided by policy. Our anticipated outputs are:* An operational model of peatland fire occurrence, based on a tropical peatland hydrology model, an agent-based model, and seasonal climate data derived from state-of-the-art reanalysis data and seasonal forecasts, and Earth Observation Data.* An operational early fire warning system for peatlands based on seasonal climate forecasts.* A more complete understanding of how climate, socio-economic and geographic factors interact to drive peatland fires.* Evidence-based policy tools for reducing the number of fires and area burned each year in Riau province, Sumatra. * Evidence-based proposals towards new Indonesian fire reduction management strategies and policy input.The forecasting system will be web-based and accessible, and will predict the risk of peatland fire occurrence up to three months ahead, enabling sufficient time to spread awareness of the impending risk through the community, and to mobilise fire-fighting resources and other fire prevention measures if required. Consideration of non-climate drivers of peatland fire occurrence is critically important because this will help us capture the spatio-temporal patterns in fire in different regions displaying similar climate regimes. Non-climate driven factors also present the most tractable means to develop mitigation actions. We will combine the results of our work on climate, socio-economic and geographic factors to generate a multi-factorial model for peatland fire occurrence. The model system will be developed in close collaboration with Indonesian stakeholders following the operational needs of agencies, municipalities and companies in the area. Key stakeholders include the Indonesian peatland restoration agency, Indonesia ministry, ASEAN Regional Haze Support Unit, local communities, forestry companies, local and international researchers. The model system will be robust and simple enough for in-house daily use by our Indonesian stakeholders, who will take over the system, and run and maintain it on their own servers.