Research for Emergency Aftershock Response (GCRF-REAR)

本世纪以来，地震已造成超过75万人死亡，自1980年以来，地震造成的经济损失超过25万亿美元，是迄今为止破坏性最大的自然灾害。科学无法预测地震，目前的研究表明，在确定近期将在哪里发生地震(所谓的地震热点)方面的进展可能会很缓慢。然而，在破坏性地震发生后立即部署的紧急服务和人道主义组织的工作总是受到余震的干扰和威胁。一系列地震集中在空间和时间上，科学上很好地理解了这些地震，可以根据概率进行预测。这个小组，包括学者和人道主义伙伴，在2015年尼泊尔地震期间所做的工作表明，这一谅解具有业务影响，可以帮助规划应急反应。在这个项目中，我们将确定将技术、科学、后勤、报告和解释要求付诸实施的要求，以便由爱丁堡大学的一个团队协调和领导的全面运作的余震预报能够成为全球每一次重大地震的国际反应的一部分。移动电话技术的全球革命，以及它们所包含的强大的传感器阵列，可以起到至关重要的作用。这不仅有助于高分辨率地测量余震的大小和位置，而且还可以作为双向传递信息和建议的途径。经验表明，不准确和误导性可能会扰乱早期响应人员的工作，移动智能手机是一种潜在的重要方式，可以标准化信息，并在最佳实践中发展“休克教育”(例如，鸭子和掩护)，这已被证明可以提高地震中的存活率。科学和技术的融合需要大规模的公众参与。最好的科学不被采用是无能为力的，科学家们没有能力理解吸收的障碍和推动因素，以及决定参与规模和最终影响的社会、文化和政治压力点。在后方，我们部署了一支由社会科学、历史、文化研究和教育领域的专家组成的世界领先的跨学科团队，与科学家和计算机专家进行补充和合作，以开发一种全面的方法来准备余震响应。为了确保明确的操作重点和与现实世界问题的相关性，我们再次与全球关注组织合作。关注在世界上27个最贫穷的国家开展工作，与后方团队的领导人保持着长期的关系，并表现出对整合学术援助的承诺。他们完全致力于这一努力，并将在项目期间委托他们的DRR顾问Dom Hunt担任长达1个月的时间，他们的应急单位主任Dominic Crowley将担任我们的国际顾问委员会成员。Concern将就工作的所有方面提供建议，并陪同我们实地访问他们在尼泊尔的国家业务。REAR将部署一个世界级的团队，将现有的和正在开发的科学和新技术带到对最具破坏性的自然灾害研究的明确定义和必要方面。这项研究得到资金支持是至关重要的。

Earthquakes have resulted in over three-quarters of a million deaths already in this century, and economic losses of more than a quarter of a trillion US dollars since 1980 making them by far the most destructive of the natural hazards. Science cannot predict earthquakes and current research indicates that progress in identifying where near future earthquakes will happen (so-called earthquake hotspots) is likely to be slow. However, the work of emergency services and humanitarian organisations deploying immediately after a destructive earthquake is always disrupted and endangered by aftershocks a set of earthquakes, which are focused in space and time, are well understood scientifically and which can be forecast probabilistically. Work by this team, both academics and humanitarian partners, during the Nepal earthquake sequence of 2015 has shown that this understanding has operational impact and can help plan emergency response. In this project we will scope out the requirements for operationalising the technical, scientific, logistical, reporting and interpretation requirements so that fully operational aftershock forecasts, coordinated and led by a team from the University of Edinburgh, can become a part of the international response every major earthquake globally. The global revolution in mobile phone technology, and the formidable array of sensors they all contain, can play a vital part. Not only in contributing to the high resolution measurement of the size and location of the aftershocks, but they can also act as pathways for the two-way transfer of information and advice. Experience has shown that inaccurate and misleading can confound the work of early responders, Mobile smart phones are a potentially important way of standardising information and developing 'shock education' in best practice earthquake resilient behaviour (for example duck-and-cover) which has been shown to improve survival during earthquakes. Integration of science and technology requires public engagement at scale. The best science is helpless without being adopted and scientists are ill-equipped to understand the barriers and enabler to uptake and the social, cultural and political pressure points which determine the scale of engagement and the ultimate impact. In REAR we deploy an world-leading, interdisciplinary team of committed experts in social science, in history, in cultural research and in education to complement and collaborate with the scientists and computing specialists to develop and a holistic approach to preparation for aftershock response.To ensure the sharp operational focus and relevance to real world problems, we have again teamed with Concern Worldwide. Concern work in 27 of the world's poorest countries and have a long standing relationship with the leaders of the REAR team and demonstrated commitment to integration of academic assistance. They are fully committed to this endeavour and will commit their DRR advisor, Dom Hunt, for up to 1 month during the project and the Director of their Emergency Unit, Dominic Crowley, will sit on our international advisory board. Concern will advise on all aspects of the work and accompany us in field visits to their in country operations almost certainly in Nepal.REAR will deploy a world-class team to bring established and developing science and new technology to a clearly defined and necessary aspect of research into the most destructive natural hazard. It is vital that this research is funded.