Increasing Resilience to Environmental Hazards in Border Conflict Zone

这项基础研究建议侧重于在遭受多种环境危害的边境冲突地区建立复原力。其理由是，只有在了解灾害历史和分析冲突对社会关系的影响的情况下，才能通过了解灾害风险和人民的高度脆弱性来解决复原力问题。兴都库什喜马拉雅地区居住着2亿多人。这些山脉是亚洲主要河流的源头，养活了13亿人口。喜马拉雅山脉的地貌是持续不断的竞争的结果，一方面是构造板块的碰撞抬高了喜马拉雅山脉，另一方面是重力造成了侵蚀。被侵蚀的沉积物是由冰川和河流沉积的。这些高速率的抬升、侵蚀和沉积过程创造了一个高度动态的环境，导致地震、山体滑坡、洪水、温度过高、风雪风暴和干旱。这一脆弱的环境受到快速区域气候变化的影响，并受到发展不平衡(包括高水平的季节性旅游)的影响。这些环境危害影响生命、生计和关键基础设施。在该地区内，克什米尔包括印度的查谟和克什米尔邦(细分为查谟、克什米尔和拉达克)，巴基斯坦的阿扎德查谟和克什米尔和吉尔吉特-巴尔的斯坦领土，以及中国管理的阿克赛钦领土。克什米尔的近代史是三个核大国中国、印度和巴基斯坦(拥有世界第一、第三和第六大军队)、战争和解决方案(1947年、1962年、1965年和1999年)的领土主张重叠，但内部冲突、边境入侵和叛乱仍在继续，导致社区跨越边界分裂、军事化的基础设施和国内移民。所有这些都有可能增加社区的脆弱性，因为它们扰乱了社会关系。该项目将专注于拉达克。它是最近一次印巴战争--1999年卡吉尔战争的现场，遭受了巴基斯坦和阿富汗的越境渗透和中国的入侵(例如，2014年越过盘贡湖)，与社区之间的内部紧张局势交织在一起。拉达克的官方语言是拉达克语、藏语、乌尔都语和巴尔蒂语，大多数拉达克语要么是藏传佛教，要么是什叶派穆斯林，反映了拉达克混合的社会和民族构成。人口动态、经济增长和大众旅游正在对自然资源造成压力，移徙和不确定的农业生产改变了家庭和村庄关系以及游牧社区(即社会资本)。拉达克经历了频繁的大洪水和山体滑坡。在一个自然、社会和历史科学的联合项目中，我们将研究喜马拉雅山脉景观的历史演变、灾害的驱动因素以及人类影响的影响。我们将评估拉达克社区的脆弱性和社会关系、它们的跨境联系、与其他社区的关系和移民。我们将分析更广泛的克什米尔地区的灾害历史、该地区的文化和政治发展，并评估冲突对复原力和适应能力的影响。该项目的成果将是在边界冲突地区的历史背景下，了解不断变化的社会关系如何增加或减少社会资本和对环境危害风险的脆弱性。它的一个关键目标是在跨学科、跨兴都库什-喜马拉雅山的研究人员和从业人员之间以及与政策制定者、工程师、教育工作者、非政府组织、当地社区、企业和学校之间建立伙伴关系。

This foundation research proposal focuses on building resilience in a frontier conflict zone subject to multiple environmental hazards. Its rationale is that resilience can be addressed through understanding the hazard risks and the heightened vulnerabilities of the people only in the context of knowledge of the history of disasters and analysis of the impact of conflict on social relations.The Hindu-Kush Himalaya region is home to over 200 million people. The mountains are the source of the major rivers of Asia which support 1.3 billion people. The landscape of the Himalaya is a result of a continuing competition between on the one hand collision of tectonic plates, which has raised the Himalaya mountains, and on the other gravity, which causes erosion. Eroded sediments are deposited by glaciers and rivers. The high rate of these processes of uplift, erosion and sedimentation creates a highly dynamic environment which causes earthquakes, landslides, floods, excess temperatures, wind and snow storm and drought. This fragile environment is subject to rapid regional climate change and affected by uneven development (including high levels of seasonal tourism). These environmental hazards impact lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure. Within the region, Kashmir covers the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (subdivided into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh), the Pakistan state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan, and the Chinese-administered territory of Aksai Chin. The recent history of Kashmir is of over-lapping territorial claims of three nuclear powers, China, India and Pakistan (with the world's first, third and sixth largest armies), war and resolution (in 1947, 1962, 1965 and 1999), but with on-going internal conflict, border incursions and insurgency, which has led to communities divided across borders, militarised infrastructure and internal migration.These all have the potential to increase community vulnerability as they disrupt social relations.The project will focus on Ladakh. It was the scene of the most recent Indo-Pakistan war, the 1999 Kargil War, and has suffered cross-border infiltration from Pakistan and Afghanistan and incursions from China (e.g., across the Pangong Lake in 2014) which have intersected with internal tensions between communities. The official languages of Ladakh are Ladakhi, Tibetan, Urdu and Balti, with most Ladakhi being either Tibetan Buddhist or Shia Muslim, reflecting the mixed social and ethnic constitution of Ladakh. Population dynamics, economic growth and mass tourism are generating pressure on natural resources with migration and uncertain agricultural production modifying familial and village relationships and nomadic communities (i.e., the social capital). Ladakh experiences frequent major floods and landslides. These are locally well recognised and will help us engage with communities on multi-hazard approaches and infrequent hazard events.In a joint project between the natural, social and historical sciences we will examine the historical evolution of the landscape of the Himalaya, the drivers of hazards and the effect of human impact. We will assess the vulnerabilities and social relations of communities in Ladakh, their cross-borders links, relations with other communities and migration. We will analyse the history of disasters, in the broader Kashmir region, the cultural and political development of the region, and assess the impact of conflict on resilience and adaptation. The outcome of this project will be an understanding, in the historical context of a border conflict zone, how changing social relations increase or decrease social capital and vulnerability to environmental hazard risks. It is a key aim to build partnerships between researchers and practitioners across disciplines, across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and with policy-makers, engineers, educators, NGOs, local communities, businesses and schools.