Increasing Resilience to Environmental Hazards in Border Conflict Zone

本基金研究计划的重点是在受多种环境危害影响的边境冲突地区建立复原力。其基本原理是，只有在了解灾害历史和分析冲突对社会关系的影响的背景下，才能通过了解灾害风险和人民的高度脆弱性来解决复原力问题。兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区是2亿多人口的家园。这些山脉是亚洲主要河流的源头，养活了13亿人口。喜马拉雅的地貌是持续竞争的结果，一方面是构造板块的碰撞，它抬高了喜马拉雅山脉，另一方面是重力的作用，它造成了侵蚀。被侵蚀的沉积物是由冰川和河流沉积的。这些隆起、侵蚀和沉积过程的高速率创造了一个高度动态的环境，导致地震、山体滑坡、洪水、高温、大风、暴风雪和干旱。这种脆弱的环境受到快速的区域气候变化和不平衡发展（包括高水平的季节性旅游）的影响。这些环境危害影响生命、生计和关键基础设施。​这些都有可能增加社区的脆弱性，因为它们破坏了社会关系。这是最近一次印巴战争，即1999年的卡吉尔战争的发生地，并遭受了来自巴基斯坦和阿富汗的跨境渗透以及来自中国的入侵（例如，2014年跨越班公湖），这些与社区之间的内部紧张局势交叉。人口动态、经济增长和大规模旅游对自然资源造成压力，移徙和不确定的农业生产改变了家庭和村庄关系以及游牧社区（即社会资本）。这些都是当地公认的，将有助于我们与社区就多灾害方法和不常见的灾害事件进行接触。在一个自然科学、社会科学和历史科学的联合项目中，我们将研究喜马拉雅景观的历史演变、危险的驱动因素和人类影响的影响。我们将分析灾难的历史，在更广泛的克什米尔地区，该地区的文化和政治发展，并评估冲突对恢复力和适应性的影响。这个项目的结果将是理解，在边境冲突地区的历史背景下，不断变化的社会关系如何增加或减少社会资本和对环境危害风险的脆弱性。它的一个关键目标是在跨学科的研究人员和实践者之间建立伙伴关系，跨越兴都库什-喜马拉雅山脉，并与决策者、工程师、教育工作者、非政府组织、当地社区、企业和学校建立伙伴关系。

This foundation research proposal focuses on building resilience in a frontier conflict zone subject to multiple environmental hazards. Its rationale is that resilience can be addressed through understanding the hazard risks and the heightened vulnerabilities of the people only in the context of knowledge of the history of disasters and analysis of the impact of conflict on social relations.The Hindu-Kush Himalaya region is home to over 200 million people. The mountains are the source of the major rivers of Asia which support 1.3 billion people. The landscape of the Himalaya is a result of a continuing competition between on the one hand collision of tectonic plates, which has raised the Himalaya mountains, and on the other gravity, which causes erosion. Eroded sediments are deposited by glaciers and rivers. The high rate of these processes of uplift, erosion and sedimentation creates a highly dynamic environment which causes earthquakes, landslides, floods, excess temperatures, wind and snow storm and drought. This fragile environment is subject to rapid regional climate change and affected by uneven development (including high levels of seasonal tourism). These environmental hazards impact lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure. Within the region, Kashmir covers the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir (subdivided into Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh), the Pakistan state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan, and the Chinese-administered territory of Aksai Chin. The recent history of Kashmir is of over-lapping territorial claims of three nuclear powers, China, India and Pakistan (with the world's first, third and sixth largest armies), war and resolution (in 1947, 1962, 1965 and 1999), but with on-going internal conflict, border incursions and insurgency, which has led to communities divided across borders, militarised infrastructure and internal migration.These all have the potential to increase community vulnerability as they disrupt social relations.The project will focus on Ladakh. It was the scene of the most recent Indo-Pakistan war, the 1999 Kargil War, and has suffered cross-border infiltration from Pakistan and Afghanistan and incursions from China (e.g., across the Pangong Lake in 2014) which have intersected with internal tensions between communities. The official languages of Ladakh are Ladakhi, Tibetan, Urdu and Balti, with most Ladakhi being either Tibetan Buddhist or Shia Muslim, reflecting the mixed social and ethnic constitution of Ladakh. Population dynamics, economic growth and mass tourism are generating pressure on natural resources with migration and uncertain agricultural production modifying familial and village relationships and nomadic communities (i.e., the social capital). Ladakh experiences frequent major floods and landslides. These are locally well recognised and will help us engage with communities on multi-hazard approaches and infrequent hazard events.In a joint project between the natural, social and historical sciences we will examine the historical evolution of the landscape of the Himalaya, the drivers of hazards and the effect of human impact. We will assess the vulnerabilities and social relations of communities in Ladakh, their cross-borders links, relations with other communities and migration. We will analyse the history of disasters, in the broader Kashmir region, the cultural and political development of the region, and assess the impact of conflict on resilience and adaptation. The outcome of this project will be an understanding, in the historical context of a border conflict zone, how changing social relations increase or decrease social capital and vulnerability to environmental hazard risks. It is a key aim to build partnerships between researchers and practitioners across disciplines, across the Hindu Kush-Himalaya and with policy-makers, engineers, educators, NGOs, local communities, businesses and schools.