Tsunami risk for the Western Indian Ocean: steps toward the integration of science into policy and practice

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The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami killed around 15,000 people on the Eastern coast of India, especially from vulnerable communities who were also deeply affected economically as a result. In 1945, between 300 and 4,000 people, including in India, were killed by a tsunami on the Western coast of India, and this coast is possibly exposed to another event soon, potentially larger. The question is then: how do we protect the communities settled on the Western coast of India from a future tsunami? In the long term, only wise planning can reduce exposure, as early warning systems only mitigate the tsunami consequences. The answer to this question will be examined through a better scientific understanding of the tsunami hazard using Geology, numerical simulations, and Statistics. The land use and planning decisions, that should ideally prevent people from settling in zones prone to the dramatic impacts of possible future tsunamis, need to be implemented, strengthened and communicated efficiently based on the science at hand. There is currently no or very little planning for tsunami risk in these regions. These decisions will have to be made under great uncertainties and must reflect local attitudes towards risk, account for the economic value of decisions, and respect the ethical views of the authorities and the communities. The three central aims will be to:1. Analyse the tsunami risk arising from earthquakes and quantify the uncertainties regarding eventual coastal inundations that it causes.2. Understand how urbanisation processes, and in particular land use and planning decisions, contribute to the impact of coastal inundation on communities3. Assess the uncertainties regarding these impacts, the value put at risk by them and the information required by stakeholders to develop mitigation and response strategies that reflect these considerations.This project will take an interdisciplinary approach that brings together natural scientific modelling of hazards, social analysis of urban development dynamic, and decision-theoretic (including ethical) evaluation of the aims of mitigation policies. In this first short-term study, we will focus on two coastal towns in India, with the intent of laying down the foundations for a more ambitious future study. By doing an initial study of this kind we can assess the feasibility of in depth mitigation planning that is sensitive to scientific uncertainty and to community values, and trial a multidisciplinary approach to managing natural hazards.