Reliable Earthquake Magnitudes for Induced Seismicity (REMIS)

可靠的诱发地震活动震级 (REMIS)

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/R001154/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 54.33万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2018 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The Bowland Shale, England, contains ~1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, a recoverable resource worth hundreds of billions of pounds over coming decades. If this resource is exploited, it must be done so using hydraulic fracturing ('hydrofracturing'), where fluids are injected at high pressure into the rocks to create fractures through which the gas can move. This process has transformed the USA into a gas exporter and dramatically reduced prices worldwide. Nevertheless, hazards arise from this process: hydrofracturing, alongside mining and carbon capture and storage, may induce earthquakes, which if large enough, can cause shaking at the Earth's surface that leads to damage. To mitigate the risk of such earthquakes to people and infrastructure, regulators demand that operations halt if earthquakes above a certain magnitude occur in a 'traffic light' system. However, existing methods used to characterise earthquakes do not account for the possible range of magnitudes, meaning that there will be cases where operations are incorrectly permitted to continue (or are halted) based on random variation or bias in the earthquake parameter estimates. 'False alarms' would lead to millions of pounds of lost income whilst damage from unexpected seismic events would be equally costly-and it is not even known which of these outcomes is rendered more likely by errors in earthquake magnitudes. Recent work shows that errors in event locations may be many times the stated uncertainties, directly impacting earthquake magnitude estimates. More broadly, earthquake magnitudes and locations estimated routinely by geological surveys worldwide suffer from similar trade-offs.In this technology-led proposal, we propose a new method to estimate jointly the seismic velocities of the subsurface and the locations of observed microearthquakes while varying attenuation, by using recordings from an array of seismometers at the surface. Such an arrangement is advantageous for cost and speed purposes, though is limited by uncertainty in the properties of the subsurface between the earthquakes and the stations. This fully non-linearised approach allows for the first time to calculate true tradeoffs between earthquake parameters and subsurface properties, yielding true joint probabilities that an event occurs in a certain location, and above a certain magnitude.We will apply the method to several existing datasets. One contains the magnitude 2.3 event at Preese Hall, Lancashire, which halted the testing of hydraulic fracturing in May 2011, and so is a direct recording of what might be expected in future. Another is a set of mining-induced events which were recorded at the New Ollerton coal mine in Nottinghamshire, and serves as an excellent analogue for future industrial deployments in the UK.We will also test our ability to image magma chambers beneath three volcanoes, in Bolivia and Ethiopia, using our method applied to available data. By comparing our results to those from existing methods, we will show where bias is present in traditional techniques. Our method, having been validated in several ways, will serve as a useful ground truth against which we may compare methods which do not fully account for the linked distribution of subsurface velocities and event magnitude.The overarching objective of this proposal is to develop a new method to better image the Earth and enable the creating of specific, testable hypotheses of Earth processes and structure. However, a paired, integral objective is to devise new recommendations to improve monitoring and high-value decision-making for the future of induced seismicity in the UK and worldwide. We will use the results of the work packages we describe to construct specific, probabilistic thresholds for future 'traffic light' monitoring systems, and benefit regulators, operators and the public.
英格兰的Bowland页岩蕴藏着约1300万亿立方英尺的页岩气,在未来几十年里,这是一种价值数千亿英镑的可采资源。如果要开采这种资源,就必须使用水力压裂技术(“水力压裂”),在高压下将流体注入岩石中,形成裂缝,使天然气可以通过裂缝流动。这一过程将美国转变为天然气出口国,并大幅降低了全球天然气价格。然而,这一过程也会带来危险:水力压裂与采矿、碳捕获和储存一起,可能引发地震,如果地震足够大,可能会引起地球表面的震动,从而导致破坏。为了降低此类地震对人员和基础设施的风险,监管机构要求,如果“红绿灯”系统发生一定震级以上的地震,就必须停止运营。然而,用于描述地震特征的现有方法没有考虑到可能的震级范围,这意味着会有基于地震参数估计的随机变化或偏差而错误地允许操作继续(或停止)的情况。“假警报”将导致数百万英镑的收入损失,而意外地震事件造成的损失同样昂贵——甚至不知道地震震级错误更容易导致哪种结果。最近的研究表明,事件位置的误差可能是所述不确定性的许多倍,直接影响地震震级的估计。更广泛地说,世界各地的地质调查常规估计的地震震级和位置也面临着类似的权衡。在这项以技术为主导的提案中,我们提出了一种新方法,通过使用地面地震仪阵列的记录,在衰减变化的情况下,联合估计地下地震速度和观测到的微地震位置。这样的安排在成本和速度方面是有利的,尽管受到地震和监测站之间地下性质的不确定性的限制。这种完全非线性的方法首次允许计算地震参数和地下性质之间的真正权衡,从而产生事件发生在特定位置和特定震级以上的真正联合概率。我们将把该方法应用于几个现有的数据集。其中之一是发生在兰开夏郡Preese Hall的2.3级地震,它在2011年5月中止了水力压裂测试,这也是对未来可能发生的情况的直接记录。另一个例子是在诺丁汉郡的新奥勒顿(New Ollerton)煤矿记录的一系列采矿引发的事件,这可以作为英国未来工业部署的极好模拟。我们还将测试我们在玻利维亚和埃塞俄比亚三座火山下绘制岩浆库的能力,将我们的方法应用于现有数据。通过将我们的结果与现有方法的结果进行比较,我们将显示传统技术中存在的偏差。我们的方法已经在几个方面得到了验证,它将作为一个有用的基础真理,我们可以与之比较那些不能完全考虑地下速度和事件震级相关分布的方法。这项提议的首要目标是开发一种新的方法来更好地成像地球,并能够创建具体的、可测试的地球过程和结构假设。然而,一个配对的整体目标是设计新的建议,以改善英国和全世界未来诱发地震活动的监测和高价值决策。我们将利用我们所描述的工作包的结果,为未来的“交通灯”监控系统构建具体的概率阈值,并使监管机构、运营商和公众受益。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Small-scale lithospheric heterogeneity characterization using Bayesian inference and energy flux models
使用贝叶斯推理和能量通量模型进行小尺度岩石圈非均质性表征
  • DOI:
    10.1093/gji/ggab291
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.8
  • 作者:
    González Álvarez I
  • 通讯作者:
    González Álvarez I
Towards imaging flow at the base of the mantle with seismic, mineral physics and geodynamic constraints
  • DOI:
    10.1002/essoar.10507848.1
  • 发表时间:
    2021-08
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    A. Nowacki;S. Cottaar
  • 通讯作者:
    A. Nowacki;S. Cottaar
Distributed Acoustic Sensing in a Greenlandic Outlet Glacier: Developing Machine Learning Approaches to Benefit Cryoseismic Data Analysis
格陵兰出口冰川中的分布式声学传感:开发机器学习方法以有益于低温地震数据分析
  • DOI:
    10.31223/x58w7h
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Booth A
  • 通讯作者:
    Booth A
Imaging the subsurface using induced seismicity and ambient noise: 3-D tomographic Monte Carlo joint inversion of earthquake body wave traveltimes and surface wave dispersion
  • DOI:
    10.1093/gji/ggaa230
  • 发表时间:
    2020-05
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.8
  • 作者:
    Xin Zhang;C. Roy;A. Curtis;A. Nowacki;B. Baptie
  • 通讯作者:
    Xin Zhang;C. Roy;A. Curtis;A. Nowacki;B. Baptie
Characterising hydrothermal fluid pathways beneath Aluto volcano, Main Ethiopian Rift, using shear wave splitting
使用剪切波分裂表征埃塞俄比亚主裂谷阿鲁托火山下方的热液流体路径
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Andy Nowacki其他文献

Andy Nowacki的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Andy Nowacki', 18)}}的其他基金

Mantle Circulation Constrained (MC2): A multidisciplinary 4D Earth framework for understanding mantle upwellings
地幔环流约束 (MC2):用于理解地幔上升流的多学科 4D 地球框架
  • 批准号:
    NE/T012684/1
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 54.33万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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