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VolcTools -- enhancing ease of use and uptake of tools to improve prediction and preparedness of volcanic hazards.

VolcTools——提高工具的易用性和采用率，以改善火山灾害的预测和准备工作。

基本信息

批准号：
NE/R003890/1
负责人：
Mark Woodhouse
金额：
$ 19.65万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR003890%2F1
关键词：
VolcTools enhancing ease use uptake

项目摘要

Volcanic eruptions pose a major hazard to life and livelihood. It is well-known that the largest eruptions can have catastrophic impacts and there is an increasing awareness that smaller eruptions that are much more frequent can have a large effect on people, their assets and the economy on a local and regional scale. Events like the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull have shown that countries like the UK that are quite far from volcanoes can still be greatly affected by volcanic activity. The disruption to air traffic in 2010 had very large global economic impact (estimated at US$5bn). In volcanically active regions there are many towns and cities that have grown close to volcanoes and continued urbanization is exposing many more communities to volcanic hazards. Impacts here are more acute, with volcanic flows like lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic flows presenting severe risk to life, while ash fall can destroy property and ruin livelihoods.Managing volcanic hazards requires a detailed understanding of volcanic activity and the ability to predict future behaviour. Academic research has demonstrated that mathematical modelling of volcanic processes can greatly assist in the production of robust hazard assessments that can be used by policy-makers, decision-makers and hazard managers to protect people and their livelihoods from volcanic activity. Despite this, relatively few mathematical research models are used when volcanic hazard assessments are made. Scientists in agencies that are tasked with providing advice on volcanic hazards to decision-makers (the targeted end-users of this project) would benefit greatly from access to predictive mathematical models. This knowledge exchange fellowship will provide a suite of user-friendly web-based modelling tools, called VolcTools, allowing users around the world to access state-of-the-art volcanic hazard models from recent cutting-edge research.Crucially, my project will have a continuous two-way engagement with end-users: I will learn from potential users about their modelling needs and the requirements of tools that would assist their operations; I will provide training to users on the tools that I develop and support their application of the tools; I will gather feedback from users and modify the tools to ensure that VolcTools meets the needs of users. Web-tools provide many advantages to users, such as very few computational requirements so that even very sophisticated and complex mathematical models can be run from mobile devices with the calculations performed remotely on high-performance computers. Users of web-based tools are guaranteed to be using the most up-to-date version, and the model can be easily maintained and upgraded. Modern web-programming allows web-tools to guide users through the set-up of a model and can provide instant, direct support to users. Monitoring of the web-tools is straight-forward and allows detailed user support to be provided.This fellowship has a strong international user community who will directly contribute to the development of VolcTools. VolcTools will provide volcano hazard managers around the world with new capabilities to use models to enhance their activities with quantitative, evidence-based and robust predictions. Improved preparedness is key to disaster risk reduction. Scientific research, particularly in forecasting future activity and its impacts, is crucial to achieving this and VolcTools will bring the latest research models to volcano hazard managers. The result of better predictions will be improved hazard mitigation strategies and decision-making based on the latest advances in mathematical modelling. This can have a very substantial benefit on the lives of people affected by volcanic activity, through improved hazard preparations, higher confidence in policies and decisions, and less disruption to economic and social activities.

火山爆发对生命和生计构成重大威胁。众所周知，最大的火山喷发会带来灾难性的影响，人们越来越意识到，更频繁的小型火山喷发会对当地和区域的人民、他们的资产和经济产生巨大影响。2010年埃亚菲亚德拉火山爆发等事件表明，像英国这样远离火山的国家仍然会受到火山活动的严重影响。2010年空中交通中断对全球经济产生了巨大影响（估计损失50亿美元）。在火山活跃地区，有许多城镇靠近火山，持续的城市化使更多的社区面临火山危害。这里的影响更为严重，火山流（泥流）和火山碎屑流等火山流对生命构成严重威胁，而火山灰则会破坏财产和生计。管理火山灾害需要详细了解火山活动和预测未来行为的能力。学术研究表明，火山过程的数学建模可以极大地帮助制定可靠的危害评估，政策制定者、决策者和灾害管理者可以利用这些评估来保护人民及其生计免受火山活动的影响。尽管如此，在进行火山危险性评估时使用的数学研究模型相对较少。负责向决策者（该项目的目标最终用户）提供火山灾害建议的机构的科学家将从获得预测数学模型中受益匪浅。该知识交流奖学金将提供一套用户友好的基于网络的建模工具，称为VolcTools，允许世界各地的用户访问最新前沿研究的最先进的火山危险模型。至关重要的是，我的项目将与最终用户保持持续的双向接触：我将从潜在用户那里了解他们的建模需求和协助他们操作的工具要求；我将为用户提供关于我开发的工具的培训，并支持他们对工具的应用；我会收集用户反馈，对工具进行修改，确保VolcTools能够满足用户的需求。web工具为用户提供了许多优势，例如计算需求很少，因此即使是非常复杂的数学模型也可以在移动设备上运行，并在高性能计算机上远程执行计算。基于web的工具的用户可以保证使用最新的版本，并且模型可以很容易地维护和升级。现代网络编程允许网络工具通过模型的设置来指导用户，并可以为用户提供即时、直接的支持。监控网络工具是直截了当的，并允许提供详细的用户支持。该奖学金拥有强大的国际用户社区，他们将直接为VolcTools的开发做出贡献。VolcTools将为世界各地的火山灾害管理者提供新的能力，利用模型通过定量、循证和可靠的预测来加强他们的活动。改进备灾工作是减少灾害风险的关键。科学研究，特别是预测未来活动及其影响的科学研究，对于实现这一目标至关重要，而VolcTools将为火山灾害管理人员带来最新的研究模型。更好的预测结果将是根据数学模型的最新进展改进减灾战略和决策。这可以通过改进灾害准备、提高对政策和决策的信心以及减少对经济和社会活动的干扰，对受火山活动影响的人们的生活产生非常大的好处。