Consensus forecasts: integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific weather and climate information to strengthen resilience to climate change.

气候变化正在对东非和西非的极端气候产生影响。在布基纳法索的土著社区，尽管有大量的气候和天气观测和建模数据，但由于缺乏可用和及时的科学气候信息，传统天气预报仍然是可获得和值得信赖的主要天气和气候信息来源之一。英国气象局(Met Office)以及非政府组织和政府机构认识到地方观测系统和辅助框架在分析天气和气候现象方面的价值，但未能将这些框架用作更好地传播科学或知情预报的手段。该项目的目的是让社会科学研究人员与气象局合作，开发一套工具，解决知识差距，并记录机构最佳做法，以达成共识预测，以加强当地社区对气候变化的适应能力。认识到以社区为基础、集体持有的土著知识和做法的重要性，气象局汇编了布基纳法索北部现有传统预报做法的数据集(Gallo和Henley，2017年)，作为Zaman Lebiti布基纳法索准备(建设对极端气候和灾害的复原力和适应)项目的合作伙伴。已经实现了对这一数据集的简短定性分析，但还需要进一步的工作来了解不同指标在传达科学气候信息方面的使用。这一放置允许伦敦国王学院(KCL)的专业知识帮助气象局将关于土著知识和预报指标的数据放在社会经济和文化背景下，以便使其对气候科学家有用和相关。目标是在布基纳法索这项工作的基础上开发一种工具、参与性方法和最佳做法材料，然后可供气象局在其他地区使用，并与其他国家气象局合作。研究人员将协助气象局确定最有用和最相关的土著指标，以突出这些指标的重要性和潜在应用，作为共同制作当地“共识预报”进程的一部分，这是一种将土著和科学气候和天气信息结合在一起的方式，使当地农村人口能够做出明智的决定并实现更好的生计。研究人员还将通过砖瓦化的视角记录正式和非正式机构(例如英国气象局、国家气象局、社区和学术界)之间不断演变的关系(Cleaver，2012)。KCL和气象局之间的伙伴关系是一种应用社会科学研究的方式，以帮助气候科学家充分利用现有资源，在当地范围内结合这些资源，并整合参与性方法。这项研究还将着眼于未来潜在的研究需求，这些需求可以通过未来的NERC研究来解决。这可以加强和改善KCL和气象局之间的长期关系。这项研究的一个潜在结果是确定了与NMS有效合作的新方式，并确定了一个可复制的过程，以创建共识预测。该项目将得到气候信息传播专家的进一步支持，以确保项目在所有步骤中的相关性，并将成为KCIRR(国王风险恢复能力综合研究中心)中心的一部分，以确保与主办组织的联系嵌入到大学内部，以最大限度地发挥持续互动的潜力。参考资料：加洛和亨利，用于布基纳法索北部季节性预报的土著指标，英国气象局支持的扎曼·勒比迪报告，2017Cleaver，F 2012，通过家族式发展：自然资源管理的重新思考机构。鲁特利奇，阿宾登，奥克森。

Climate change is having an impact on climate extremes in East and West Africa. Despite the large volume of climate and weather observational and modelled data, in indigenous communities in Burkina Faso, traditional weather forecasting still remains one of the main accessible and trusted sources of weather and climate information, due to a lack of usable and timely scientific climate information. The UK Meteorological Office (Met Office) as well NGOs and government bodies recognises the value of local observation systems and complementary frameworks for analysing weather and climate phenomenon, but have not been able to move towards using such frameworks as means to better communicate science derived or informed forecasts. The purpose of this project is for social science researchers to work with the Met Office to develop a set of tools, address a knowledge gap and document institutional best practices in reaching a consensus forecast to strengthen local communities' resilience to climate change. Recognising the importance of community based, collectively held indigenous knowledge and practices importance, the Met Office has compiled a data set of existing traditional forecasting practices in northern Burkina Faso (Gallo and Henley, 2017) as partners of the Zaman Lebidi Burkina Faso BRACED (Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters) project. A brief qualitative analysis of this dataset has been realised but further work is needed to understand the use of the different indicators in communicating scientific climate information.This placement allows the expertise of King's College London (KCL) to assist the Met Office to place data on indigenous knowledge and forecast indicators in the socioeconomic and cultural context in order to make it useful and relevant for the climate scientists. The goal is to develop a tool, a participatory approach and best practices materials based on this work in Burkina Faso which can then be used by the Met Office in other areas and for work with other National Meteorological Services (NMS). The researchers will assist the Met Office in identifying the most useful and relevant indigenous indicators to highlight their importance and potential application as part of a process of co-production of a local "consensus forecast", a way to combine indigenous and scientific climate and weather information so that local rural populations can make informed decisions and achieve better livelihoods. The researchers will also document the evolving relationship between formal and informal institutions (e.g. the Met Office, NMS, communities and academia) through the lens of bricolage (Cleaver, 2012). The partnership between KCL and the Met Office is a way of applying social science research to help climate scientists make full use of available resources, contextualise them at local scales and integrate participatory approaches. The research will also look at potential future research needs that could be addressed through future NERC research. This could strengthen and improve long-term relationship between KCL and the Met Office.A potential outcome of this research is the identification of new ways of efficiently collaborating with NMS and a replicable process for creating consensus forecasts. The project will be further supported by a Climate Information Communication specialist to ensure relevance of the project at all steps and will be part of KCIRR (King's Centre for Integrated Research on Risk Resilience) hub to ensure that the links with the host organisation are embedded within the University to maximise the potential of continuing interactions.References:Gallo and Henley, Indigenous indicators used for seasonal forecasts in northern Burkina Faso, BRACED Zaman Lebidi Report, UK Met Office, 2017Cleaver, F 2012, Development through bricolage: rethinking institutions for natural resource management. Routledge, Abingdon, Oxon.