Half a degree Additional warming: Prognosis and Projected Impacts on Health (HAPPI-Health)

半度额外变暖：预后和预计对健康的影响（HAPPI-Health）

• 批准号: NE/R009554/1
• 负责人: Daniel Mitchell
• 金额: $ 40.44万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FR009554%2F1
• 关键词: Half; degree; Additional; warming; Prognosis

The most recent Lancet Commissions on climate change and health concluded that "Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century". Here, we specifically consider the thermal-health component of the future climate-health burden in an attempt to estimate, for the first time, the number of temperature related deaths under future climate change in developing regions of the world. This number is surprisingly hard to calculate even with large error bars. Aside from the uncertainties in climate projections, the relationship between heat stress and human health varies significantly between countries, and even between cities within the same country. Estimates have been made on a regional scale in some developed countries. For instance, in the UK, a ~250% increase in heat related mortality by the year 2050 was estimated from an annual baseline of ~2000 current deaths (Hajat et al, 2014). This proposal aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of extreme temperatures and associated temperature-related mortality in all regions of the globe, including previously avoided regions such as developing nations, by characterising the uncertainties in different methods of climate change projections, mechanisms driving the extremes, and their relationship to the temperature-health burden at the city level. Specifically, for future climate we consider Paris Agreement climate scenarios. The Paris Agreement aims to limit globally averaged temperatures to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue ambitions to limit it to 1.5C. But this aim is currently supported by rather thin scientific evidence (James et al, 2016), in particular with respect to relative risks of high-impact extreme weather events. Sea level rise aside, the impacts of a global warming of 1.5C, and the impacts avoided by stabilising temperatures at 1.5 instead of 2C, will be dominated, in most regions of the world, by changing risks of extreme weather events, hence the relevance of our proposed research. Fischer & Knutti (2015) estimate that, on a global average, the occurrence of heat extremes doubles between 1.5 & 2C warming. For individual regions, large-scale averages do not provide an adequate basis for decisions on risk prevention and resilience. Changes in atmospheric dynamics and factors other than greenhouse gases also affect heat and rainfall extremes, and, locally, may yield changes in risk that are either greater than or even opposed to the global average (Schaller et al, 2016).The Paris Agreement calls for research into the impacts of a given level of warming, not the impacts of a scenario that is expected, at some probability, to yield a given level of warming. This requires a new approach to estimate future climate which is complementary to the scenario-driven experiments that provide the core of CMIP5 and CMIP6. To address this, we employ the newly developed Half a degree Additional warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI; Mitchell et al, 2016a) scenario set - a set of targeted experiments specifically designed to address questions related to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5C and 2C global averaged warming anomalies.The Paris Agreement is a major step forward for the international climate community, and will play a large role in the next IPCC report (AR6) and well beyond. This proposal brings together experts in climate (Mitchell and Allen) and health (Gasparrini), to provide a comprehensive analysis of one the key impacts of climate change, temperature related mortality. It provides an assessment of what drives extreme temperatures, where the climate change signals are largest, and how these impact on the regional- and city-level health burden around the world.

最近的《柳叶刀》气候变化与健康委员会得出结论，“气候变化是21世纪最大的全球健康威胁”。在这里，我们特别考虑了未来气候健康负担的热健康部分，试图首次估计世界发展中地区未来气候变化下与温度相关的死亡人数。即使有很大的误差条，这个数字也难以计算。除了气候预测的不确定性之外，热应激与人类健康之间的关系在不同国家之间，甚至在同一国家的不同城市之间也有很大差异。一些发达国家在区域范围内作出了估计。例如，在英国，根据目前约2000例死亡的年基线，估计到2050年与热有关的死亡率将增加约250% （Hajat等人，2014年）。该提案旨在通过描述不同气候变化预测方法中的不确定性、驱动极端情况的机制及其与城市层面温度-健康负担的关系，全面了解全球所有地区（包括以前未涉及的地区，如发展中国家）的极端温度和与温度相关的死亡率。具体来说，对于未来的气候，我们考虑了《巴黎协定》的气候情景。《巴黎协定》旨在将全球平均气温控制在远低于工业化前水平2摄氏度的水平，并追求将其控制在1.5摄氏度的目标。但目前支持这一目标的科学证据相当薄弱（James et al, 2016），特别是在高影响极端天气事件的相对风险方面。除了海平面上升之外，全球变暖1.5摄氏度的影响，以及通过将温度稳定在1.5摄氏度而不是2摄氏度所避免的影响，将在世界大多数地区由极端天气事件风险的变化所主导，因此我们提出的研究具有相关性。Fischer和Knutti（2015）估计，全球平均而言，在升温1.5℃至2℃之间，极端高温的发生率将翻倍。对于个别区域，大尺度平均值不能为风险预防和复原力决策提供充分的基础。除温室气体外，大气动力学和其他因素的变化也会影响极端高温和极端降雨，并且在局部可能会产生大于甚至低于全球平均水平的风险变化（Schaller et al, 2016）。《巴黎协定》要求对给定的变暖水平的影响进行研究，而不是研究在某种可能性下预期会产生给定的变暖水平的情景的影响。这就需要一种新的估算未来气候的方法，这种方法可以补充为CMIP5和CMIP6提供核心的情景驱动实验。为了解决这个问题，我们采用了新开发的半度额外变暖；预测和预计影响（HAPPI； Mitchell等人，2016a）情景集——一组专门设计的有针对性的实验，用于解决与《巴黎协定》中全球平均变暖异常1.5℃和2℃目标相关的问题。《巴黎协定》是国际气候界向前迈出的重要一步，并将在IPCC下一份报告（AR6）中发挥重要作用。该提案汇集了气候（米切尔和艾伦）和健康（加斯帕里尼）方面的专家，对气候变化的一个关键影响——与温度相关的死亡率——进行了全面分析。该报告提供了一项评估，评估了极端温度的驱动因素，以及气候变化信号最大的地方，以及这些因素如何影响世界各地的区域和城市卫生负担。

项目成果

Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl078789
• 发表时间: 2018-09
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Wenbin Liu;Wee Ho Lim;Wee Ho Lim;F. Sun;D. Mitchell;Hong Wang;Deliang Chen;I. Bethke;H. Shiogama;E. Fischer

Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794
• 发表时间: 2020-10-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Vosper, E. L.;Mitchell, D. M.;Emanuel, K.
• 通讯作者: Emanuel, K.

Predicting future UK nighttime urban heat islands using observed short-term variability and regional climate projections

使用观测到的短期变化和区域气候预测预测未来英国夜间城市热岛

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf94c
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Doger De Speville C

Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc4ad
• 发表时间: 2020-10
• 期刊: Environmental Research Letters
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Alan T. Kennedy-Asser;Oliver Andrews;D. Mitchell;R. Warren

How will climate change affect UK heatwaves?

• DOI: 10.1002/wea.4061
• 发表时间: 2021-08-18
• 期刊: WEATHER
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Lo, Y. T. Eunice;Mitchell, Dann M.
• 通讯作者: Mitchell, Dann M.