Emergence of Climate Hazards

气候危害是指可能造成生命损失、伤害或其他健康影响以及财产、基础设施、生计、服务提供和环境资源的损害和损失的天气和气候“极端事件”。例子包括：-2003年西欧夏季热浪，被认为是500年来前所未有的，造成20,000多人过早死亡，主要是老年人等社会弱势群体-南亚季风失败和随后的农业损失-农业占国内生产总值的18%，但雇用南亚60%的人口(约10亿人)-2015/16年的极端厄尔尼诺事件，导致全球洪水、干旱和野火，并推动二氧化碳有记录以来最快的年度增加-2013/2014年冬季，一连串风暴抵达英格兰南部，造成严重洪水和4.51亿英镑的保险损失。最有可能的是，以我们目前不了解的方式受到全球气候变化的影响。未来的气候变化可能会进一步加剧它们的影响。这个项目将评估气候变化对过去和现在的气候危害的影响，并预测它们在未来的变化。重点放在未来30年，因为这一时间尺度与政府、企业和个人制定的适应战略相关。EMERGENCE将使用来自最先进的气候模型的信息，包括来自空前精细的模型的信息。它将使用尖端观测，以利用已经观察到的变化来限制气候模型预测，借鉴新的和改进的分析技术(包括事件归属、机器学习和特征跟踪)，这些技术在以前评估旧模型的气候危害时无法获得或没有广泛应用。涉及的危害包括：极端热应激事件、热带洪水和干旱，以及与其相关的极端风和降雨的风暴。信息将被整合到全球指标中，这些指标将形成气候危害风险的快照摘要，进而成为政策制定者的基本资源。该项目对气候危害出现情况的评估将及时提交政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的下一次评估，这与实际气候科学和影响都有关。组建的团队包括来自英国气象局的一些主要气候科学项目合作伙伴，他们在气专委有着良好的记录，因此非常适合提供这一投入，并进一步加强英国气候科学在国际舞台上的形象。

Climate hazards are weather and climate 'extreme events' that can cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Examples include:- The summer heat wave of 2003 in Western Europe, thought to be unprecedented in 500 years, which caused more that 20,000 early deaths, mainly among vulnerable groups in society such as the elderly- South Asian Monsoon monsoon failures and subsequent agricultural losses - agriculture accounts for 18% of GDP, but employs 60% of people in S. Asia (~1 billion people)- The extreme El Niño event of 2015/16 that caused floods, droughts and wildfires globally and drove the fastest annual increase in CO2 on record- A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014, causing severe floods and £451 million of insured lossesSuch events are, most likely, influenced by global climate change in ways that we do not currently understand. Future climate change may further exacerbate their impacts.This project will assess the impact of climate change on climate hazards in the past and present and project forward their changes into the future. There is a focus on the next 30 years because of the relevance of this time scale for adaptation strategies produced by governments, businesses and individuals.EMERGENCE will use information from state-of-the-art climate models, including from models with unprecedented fine detail. It will use cutting edge observations in order to constrain climate model predictions using changes already observed, drawing on new and improved analysis techniques (including event attribution, machine learning and feature tracking) that were not available or not widely applied during previous assessments of climate hazards from older models. The hazards addressed are: extreme heat stress events, tropical deluges and droughts, and storms with their associated extreme winds and rainfall. Information will be integrated into global indicators that will form a snapshot summary of climate hazard risks that, in turn, will be an essential resource for policy makers.The project's assessments of the emergence of climate hazards will be produced in a timely fashion to feed into the next assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), being relevant to both physical climate science and impacts. The team assembled, including a number of leading climate science project partners from the Met Office, has a strong track record in IPCC and is thus ideally placed to provide this input and to further strengthen the profile of UK climate science in the international arena.