NSFGEO-NERC Equatorial Line Observations

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Overview: Modern management of extreme weather events crucially depends on weather forecasts reliable for extended time periods. Much of the predictability of global weather patterns lays within the intraseasonal variability of the tropical circulation and in particular the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Maritime Continent (MC) is arguably the most important region in the global weather and climate system, in terms of forcing global atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales, and is the core region for the MJO. However, the multi-scale interactions of the atmosphere, ocean and land surfaces in the MC region are sparsely observed, poorly understood and badly represented in our models, leading to systematic errors in extended range forecasts. In this project, the interactions within atmospheric equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin waves(CCKWs), the leading modes of eastward moving convection on time scales between several days and three weeks, will be investigated. CCKWs and other equatorial waves form the "building blocks" of the active phase of MJO. The main effort will be to organize and execute the Equatorial Line Observations (ELO) field campaign during the winter of 2018/2019 - as a component of the International Years of the Maritime Continent (YMC) program. Based on collected in-situ data as well as other observational, remote sensing and modelling datasets, the key physical mechanisms responsible for multi-scale interactions associated with the propagating atmospheric convection over the Maritime Continent will be analysed. To this end, a novel Lagrangian approach in the analysis of propagating events will be employed to study the interaction between tropical waves and the local atmospheric and oceanic environment, in particular over the MC region.Intellectual Merit: The project involves state-of-the-art theoretical and observational research at the frontiers of atmospheric physics, physical oceanography and air-sea interactions. A major part of the project is dedicated to the collection and analysis of unique in-situ data - fundamental to an improved understanding of the interaction between the MJO and MC. As a result of this project - the physical, dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms responsible for the blocking and favouring propagation of atmospheric convection across the MC region will be identified. This will allow full exploitation of the predictability of weather patterns that govern circulation in the tropics.Broader Impacts: The identification of physical mechanisms governing extreme precipitation events will benefit inhabitants of the MC region. Improved reliability of weather and climate forecasts will benefit the policy-makers, strategic planners, insurance industry and food security industries who use these predictions for decision making. Collaboration between scientists from the USA, Europe and Indonesia will contribute to research diversity and capacity building among all the involved institutions with great benefit for the early career researchers involved in this project.