NCEO LTS-S

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NCEO research in this programme will make use of the latest, most interesting information from satellite data in combination with state-of-the-art NERC-supported global models of principally the land, atmosphere and ocean. NCEO staff have internationally recognised skills in analysing satellite data, evaluating models and merging the data into models (data assimilation) which will enable us to take major steps forward in analysing and understanding the Earth system and feedbacks between the component domains (air, water, land and ice) within it.A primary underpinning NCEO activity is to produce high quality data sets from the latest satellite observations. We will use observations from ESA Earth Explorers, Eumetsat operational weather satellites, Copernicus Sentinels, NASA/NOAA research and operational missions and JAXA satellites. We will devise innovative algorithms to generate state-of-the-art Earth Observation (EO) data, with uncertainties, for significant variables which allow us to monitor and understand change and variability in the Earth system: vegetation change and stored carbon (biomass); fire radiative power and combustion completeness; surface reflectance and emissivity; atmospheric trace gases including CO2, CH4 and O3; aerosols, clouds and precipitation; top-of-atmosphere radiances and fluxes, surface temperatures over land and sea.These datasets are powerful when combined with models. NCEO's second underpinning activity will provide a flexible community data assimilation tool for scientists to trial different methods and EO data with important community models. Uncertainties are critical to the performance of assimilation systems and NCEO scientists will characterise these for our key models and data, making them available publically. We will also examine new non-linear methods, collaborating with the mathematics community to ensure the appropriateness of our techniques.Our assimilation methods and EO data will be employed in our three strategic Programme science areas: 1. Global and Regional Carbon Cycle (GRCC); 2. Large-scale coupling of the biosphere-atmosphere during the Anthropocene (BIOATM); 3. Diagnosing Energy and Water Exchanges in the Earth System (DEWEES). The global carbon cycle plays a central role in the Earth system but a comprehensive understanding of its current state, main drivers and sensitivities remains a key challenge in climate science. In the GRCC area we will seek to meet this challenge, exploiting the developments made in our two underpinning activities to advance understanding of: dynamic carbon pools in ocean and land ecosystems; exchanges of carbon between the surface and atmosphere; regional carbon budgets. Ultimately, we will advance our data assimilation methods towards an integrated carbon observing system that links process models and global EO data across domains. The atmosphere globally integrates spatially and temporally varying surface emissions over a wide range of time scales. Consequent atmospheric variations in affect weather, climate and air quality with feedbacks to the biosphere. In the BIOATM area we will quantify the links between the surface fluxes driving atmospheric composition, including the interactions between human and natural emissions, and assess large-scale consequences for variations and trends. Energy flows between the surface, atmosphere and space play a fundamental role in establishing the large scale circulation that drives our weather and climate, being intrinsically coupled to the water cycle via the exchange of latent heat. However, understanding how clouds, precipitation and the land surface respond to, and themselves modify, changes to the circulation is a major challenge. In the DEWEES area we will develop the first global observational framework linking the large-scale circulation, convection and land surface processes in order to meet this challenge.