Reconciling Volcanic Forcing and Climate Records throughout the Last Millennium (Vol-Clim)

协调过去千年的火山强迫和气候记录 (Vol-Clim)

• 批准号: NE/S000887/1
• 负责人: Anja Schmidt
• 金额: $ 74.97万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS000887%2F1
• 关键词: Reconciling; Volcanic; Forcing; Climate; Records

Volcanic eruptions are an important driver of climate variability and climate change, yet climate model simulations do not agree with data on the magnitude of temperature changes caused by large-magnitude volcanic eruptions. The Vol-Clim project will resolve this discrepancy by deriving new and improved estimates of volcanic forcing using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model developed in the UK (UKESM1), which will allow us to quantify and better understand how large explosive volcanic eruptions affected the climate system since 1250 CE. The model explicitly accounts for the interaction of chemical, dynamical and aerosol microphysical processes during volcanic eruptions, all of which affect the magnitude of the climate response. However, these processes have not been taken into account in previous assessments of climate change and natural climate variability caused by volcanic eruptions since 1250 CE. In detail, at least 60 volcanic eruptions have been detected based on volcanic deposits in polar ice-cores since 1250 CE. Large-magnitude eruptions emit sulphur dioxide high into the stratosphere where it is oxidized to form sulphuric acid vapour, which nucleates and condenses to form sulphate aerosol particles. These aerosol particles scatter and absorb energy from the Sun thereby cooling the Earth's surface. In terms of the magnitude of this surface cooling, tree-rings (and other data) appear to show a smaller hemispheric temperature response (of up to 1 degree Celsius) to volcanic eruptions than simulated by current climate models. This mismatch means that at present we do not fully understand how the climate system including clouds responds after volcanic eruptions. We also do not fully understand how tree growth and subsequently tree-rings respond as a consequence of the cooling induced by a volcanic eruption. Overall, these uncertainties affect our ability to use climate models to simulate past, present and future changes of climate. Current climate models have simple implementations of volcanic effects, ignoring many key chemical and physical processes relevant after volcanic eruptions. Using UKESM1 we will be able to simulate the evolution of volcanic aerosol particles with unprecedented sophistication, which has the potential to greatly improve the fidelity of predicted climatic effects and reconcile model-simulated and observational records of climate change after volcanic eruptions. Our simulations in UKESM1 will cover the period 1250 CE to present, which will enable us to characterize and evaluate annual to centennial-scale effects on global and hemispheric surface temperatures, climate variability and impacts on surface ocean temperatures for eruptions of different frequencies and intensities. Vol-Clim is an ambitious project that aligns closely with international initiatives and NERC's main goals. Quantifying the contribution of volcanic eruptions to climate variability over the past millennium is key to understanding present day and future decadal-scale climate variability; this is in line with NERC's main goal 'to understand and predict how the planet works'. Vol-Clim will also help prepare society for the effects of future eruptions. Vol-Clim is also strongly aligned to international activities such as the new Past Global Changes (PAGES) working group "Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS)" and the PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) and CMIP (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project) communities. We will generate a volcanic aerosol forcing time-series (1250 CE to present) for use in those models that do not account for the chemical and physical aerosol processes in the stratosphere. These deliverables are relevant for CMIP6-endorsed activities such as VolMIP (Model Inter-comparison Project on the Climatic Response to Volcanic Forcing) and RFMIP (Radiative Forcing Model Inter-comparison Project), and also the IPCC.

火山爆发是气候多变性和气候变化的一个重要驱动因素，但气候模型模拟与大规模火山爆发造成的温度变化幅度的数据并不一致。Vol-Clim项目将通过使用英国开发的最先进的地球系统模型（UKESM 1）获得新的和改进的火山强迫估计来解决这一差异，这将使我们能够量化并更好地了解自1250年以来大型火山爆发对气候系统的影响。该模型明确说明了火山爆发期间化学、动力学和气溶胶微物理过程的相互作用，所有这些都影响到气候反应的幅度。然而，这些过程并没有考虑到自公元1250年以来火山爆发引起的气候变化和自然气候变率的评估。详细地说，自公元1250年以来，根据极地冰芯中的火山沉积物，至少有60次火山爆发被发现。大规模的火山爆发将二氧化硫排放到平流层高处，在那里氧化形成硫酸蒸汽，硫酸蒸汽成核和冷凝形成硫酸盐气溶胶颗粒。这些气溶胶粒子散射并吸收来自太阳的能量，从而冷却地球表面。就地表冷却的幅度而言，树木年轮（和其他数据）似乎显示出比当前气候模型模拟的更小的半球温度响应（高达1摄氏度）。这种不匹配意味着目前我们还不完全了解包括云在内的气候系统在火山爆发后的反应。我们也不完全了解树木的生长和随后的树木年轮如何应对火山爆发引起的冷却。总的来说，这些不确定性影响了我们使用气候模型模拟过去、现在和未来气候变化的能力。目前的气候模型对火山影响的实现很简单，忽略了火山爆发后许多关键的化学和物理过程。使用UKESM 1，我们将能够以前所未有的复杂程度模拟火山气溶胶粒子的演变，这有可能大大提高预测气候影响的保真度，并调和火山爆发后气候变化的模型模拟和观测记录。我们在UKESM 1中的模拟将涵盖公元1250年至今，这将使我们能够描述和评估每年到百年尺度对全球和半球表面温度，气候变化以及不同频率和强度的火山爆发对海洋表面温度的影响。Vol-Clim是一个雄心勃勃的项目，与国际倡议和NERC的主要目标密切相关。量化火山爆发对过去一千年气候变化的贡献是理解当今和未来十年尺度气候变化的关键;这符合NERC的主要目标“了解和预测地球如何运作”。Vol-Clim还将帮助社会为未来火山爆发的影响做好准备。Vol-Clim还与国际活动密切相关，例如新的过去全球变化（PAGES）工作组“火山对气候和社会的影响（VICS）”以及PMIP（古气候模拟相互比较项目）和CMIP（耦合模型相互比较项目）社区。我们将生成一个火山气溶胶强迫时间序列（公元1250年至今），用于那些不考虑平流层中化学和物理气溶胶过程的模型。这些可交付成果与CMIP 6核可的活动有关，如VolMIP（火山强迫气候响应模型相互比较项目）和RFMIP（辐射强迫模型相互比较项目）以及IPCC。

项目成果

Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges

• DOI: 10.1007/s00445-022-01562-8
• 发表时间: 2022-05-18
• 期刊: BULLETIN OF VOLCANOLOGY
• 影响因子: 3.5
• 作者: Aubry, Thomas J.;Farquharson, Jamie I.;Sykes, John Staunton
• 通讯作者: Sykes, John Staunton

Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption.

多巴超级喷发后的全球气候破坏和区域气候庇护所。

• DOI: 10.17863/cam.72592
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Black B

A new volcanic stratospheric sulfate aerosol forcing emulator (EVA_H): Comparison with interactive stratospheric aerosol models.

一种新的火山平流层硫酸盐气溶胶强迫模拟器（EVA_H）：与交互式平流层气溶胶模型的比较。

• DOI: 10.17863/cam.47606
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Aubry T

A New Volcanic Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol Forcing Emulator (EVA_H): Comparison With Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Models

新型火山平流层硫酸盐气溶胶强迫模拟器 (EVA_H)：与交互式平流层气溶胶模型的比较

• DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031303
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Atmospheres
• 作者: Aubry T

Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption

• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2013046118
• 发表时间: 2021-07-20
• 期刊: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• 影响因子: 11.1
• 作者: Black, Benjamin A.;Lamarque, Jean-Francois;Bardeen, Charles G.
• 通讯作者: Bardeen, Charles G.