Identification and Separation of Volcanic and Natural Climate Variability Signals

火山和自然气候变化信号的识别和分离

• 批准号: 22KF0010
• 负责人: 藤原 正智
• 金额: $ 1.47万
• 依托单位: Hokkaido University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2023-03-08 至 2024-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22KF0010/
• 关键词: climate; volcanic eruption; climate modeling; numerical experiments; El Nino; Southern Oscillation

We have published one paper in a reputed peer-reviewed scientific journal (i.e., Earth Systems and Environment), which is a review of past studies on the El Nino Southern Oscillation linkage to strong volcanic eruptions and post-volcanic winter warming. Moreover, Dr. Dogar attended American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2022 and presented two posters.Dr. Dogar has conducted ensemble numerical experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) using Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility. Dr. Dogar has analyzed the output of the completed GFDL-CM2.1 model ensemble experiments along with the comparison/validation of model results with observational and reanalysis data.This work will provide a comprehensive description, understanding, and prediction of volcanic and natural variability signals, which is still lacking. In particular, it will help understand the circulation response to large tropical and high latitude eruptions, the importance played by the initial state of the ocean and the atmosphere at the time of the eruption, and provide key insights on the stability of the teleconnection in the climate system.

我们在一份著名的同行评审科学期刊上发表了一篇论文（即，地球系统和环境），这是对过去关于厄尔尼诺南方涛动与强烈火山爆发和火山后冬季变暖之间联系的研究的回顾。此外，Dogar博士还参加了美国地球物理联盟（AGU）2022年秋季会议，并发表了两张海报。Dogar博士使用北海道大学的高性能超级计算设备，对地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的大气-海洋耦合气候模式（GFDL-CM 2.1）进行了集合数值实验。Dogar博士分析了已完成的GFDL-CM 2.1模式集合实验的输出，沿着模式结果与观测和再分析数据的比较/验证。这项工作将提供对火山和自然变率信号的全面描述，理解和预测，这仍然是缺乏的。特别是，它将有助于了解环流对热带和高纬度大爆发的反应，海洋和大气在爆发时的初始状态所起的重要作用，并提供有关气候系统中遥相关稳定性的关键见解。

项目成果

Sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to External and Internal Variability

中东和北非 (MENA) 对外部和内部变化的敏感性

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Shahid Amina;Dogar Muhammad Mubashar
• 通讯作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar

Disentangling the Volcanic Signals from Natural Climate Variability

解开火山信号与自然气候变化的关系

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Fujiwara Masatomo;Shahid Amina
• 通讯作者: Shahid Amina

A Review on the Sensitivity of ENSO to Strong Volcanic Eruptions

ENSO对强火山喷发敏感性的研究进展

• 发表时间: 2022
• 作者: Dogar Muhammad Mubashar;Shahid Amina
• 通讯作者: Shahid Amina