Identification and Separation of Volcanic and Natural Climate Variability Signals

我们在著名的同行评议科学杂志（即《地球系统与环境》）上发表了一篇论文，这篇论文回顾了过去关于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动与强火山爆发和火山后冬季变暖之间联系的研究。此外，Dogar博士还参加了美国地球物理联盟（AGU） 2022年秋季会议，并发表了两张海报。Dogar利用北海道大学的高性能超级计算设备，利用地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）的大气-海洋耦合气候模型（GFDL- cm2.1）进行了综合数值实验。Dogar博士分析了已完成的GFDL-CM2.1模型集合实验的输出，并将模型结果与观测和再分析数据进行了比较/验证。这项工作将提供对火山和自然变率信号的全面描述、理解和预测，这是目前仍然缺乏的。特别是，它将有助于了解大型热带和高纬度火山喷发的环流响应，火山喷发时海洋和大气初始状态的重要性，并为气候系统中遥相关的稳定性提供关键见解。

We have published one paper in a reputed peer-reviewed scientific journal (i.e., Earth Systems and Environment), which is a review of past studies on the El Nino Southern Oscillation linkage to strong volcanic eruptions and post-volcanic winter warming. Moreover, Dr. Dogar attended American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2022 and presented two posters.Dr. Dogar has conducted ensemble numerical experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model (GFDL-CM2.1) using Hokkaido University's high-performance supercomputing facility. Dr. Dogar has analyzed the output of the completed GFDL-CM2.1 model ensemble experiments along with the comparison/validation of model results with observational and reanalysis data.This work will provide a comprehensive description, understanding, and prediction of volcanic and natural variability signals, which is still lacking. In particular, it will help understand the circulation response to large tropical and high latitude eruptions, the importance played by the initial state of the ocean and the atmosphere at the time of the eruption, and provide key insights on the stability of the teleconnection in the climate system.