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Towards a general theory of ecological impacts of multiple, simultaneous stressors.

走向多重、同时发生的压力源生态影响的一般理论。

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S001395/1
负责人：
Andrew Beckerman
金额：
$ 55.57万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS001395%2F1
关键词：
Towards general theory ecological impacts

项目摘要

Predicting the impact that combined natural and anthropogenic stressors have on ecological communities ranks as one of the most important research agendas in ecology. Climate change and the fragmentation of habitat are considered the two largest threats to the global environment. They are expected to impact on the diversity, composition and dynamics of the communities that underpin ecosystem services. Pollution and (over)harvesting of natural resources considerably complicate these impacts. It is safe to assume that communities are experiencing multiple, simultaneous challenges.It also seems easy to assume that combined threats might simply add up to generate impact. The more stressors, the more and worse the impact. However, it may be that, because of the way biology works, some stressors cancel each other out, or combine to be less impactful than expected. And, of course, the opposite is possible (and scary): stressors may exacerbate each other, leading to effects that are worse than expected compared to just adding their effects together.Unfortunately, we really have no idea about whether stress combines in an additive or non-additive fashion. And we have very rudimentary understanding of how feedbacks among population dynamics, community structure and ecosystem function operate under multiple stressors. We suggest, in fact, that the distribution of these additive or interactive effects can tell us something about how predictable and how generalizable are the effects of stressors.We propose to explore the distribution of additive and interactive effects caused by multiple stressors by building a model that allows biology to determine if stress adds up or not, and then comparing this to patterns in real data. Our unique contribution comes from recognising that some kinds of stress, like temperature, act on physiology and change the rates at which things like metabolism growth and reproduction happen. In contrast, some stressors simply kill things, either by harvesting or by direct impacts from things like pollution. We will build the first model that allows these distinctions to be accommodated, giving us the best chance of understanding how stressors combine to affect populations, the structure of communities and the ecosystem functions we rely upon.

预测自然和人为压力因素对生态群落的影响是生态学研究的重要课题之一。气候变化和栖息地的破碎化被认为是对全球环境的两大威胁。预计它们将影响支撑生态系统服务的群落的多样性、组成和动态。污染和（过度）开采自然资源使这些影响变得相当复杂。可以肯定的是，社区正在同时经历多重挑战。人们似乎也很容易认为，综合起来的威胁可能会产生影响。压力源越多，影响就越大、越严重。然而，可能是由于生物学的工作方式，一些压力源相互抵消，或者结合起来的影响比预期的要小。当然，相反的情况也是可能的（而且是可怕的）：压力源可能会相互加剧，导致的影响比仅仅把它们的影响加在一起要糟糕得多。不幸的是，我们真的不知道压力是否以加性或非加性的方式结合。我们对在多重压力下，种群动态、群落结构和生态系统功能之间的反馈是如何运作的，有非常初步的了解。我们认为，事实上，这些累加效应或互动效应的分布可以告诉我们，压力源的影响有多可预测，又有多普遍。我们建议通过建立一个模型来探索由多种压力源引起的附加和交互效应的分布，该模型允许生物学来确定压力是否加在一起，然后将其与实际数据中的模式进行比较。我们的独特贡献来自于认识到某些压力，比如温度，会对生理产生作用，并改变新陈代谢、生长和繁殖等事情发生的速度。相比之下，一些压力源只是通过收获或污染等直接影响来杀死事物。我们将建立第一个能够容纳这些差异的模型，使我们有最好的机会了解压力源如何结合起来影响人口、社区结构和我们所依赖的生态系统功能。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Insights from two decades of the Student Conference on Conservation Science

保护科学学生会议二十年来的见解

DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108478
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Biological Conservation
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Geldmann J
通讯作者：
Geldmann J

Global analysis reveals complex demographic responses of mammals to climate change

全球分析揭示了哺乳动物对气候变化的复杂人口反应

DOI：
10.1101/2019.12.16.878348
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Paniw M
通讯作者：
Paniw M

Overconfidence undermines global wildlife abundance trends

过度自信破坏了全球野生动物丰富度趋势

DOI：
10.1101/2022.11.02.514877
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Johnson T
通讯作者：
Johnson T

Poor availability of context-specific evidence hampers decision-making in conservation

DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108666
发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Christie, Alec P.;Amano, Tatsuya;Sutherland, William J.
通讯作者：
Sutherland, William J.

Marine conservation: towards a multi-layered network approach.

DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2019.0459
发表时间：
2020-12-21
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
0
作者：
Jacob U;Beckerman A;Antonijevic M;Dee LE;Eklöf A;Possingham HP;Thompson R;Webb TJ;Halpern BS
通讯作者：
Halpern BS