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Philippines Groundwater Outlook (PhiGO)

菲律宾地下水展望 (PhiGO)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S003118/1
负责人：
Andrew Barkwith
金额：
$ 58.69万
依托单位：
British Geological Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS003118%2F1
关键词：
Philippines Groundwater Outlook PhiGO

项目摘要

Half of the world's cities with populations above 100,000 are located within water basins where over half of the available water supply is depleted for part of the year. These water-stressed cities are finding it extremely difficult and expensive to secure the additional water supplies needed to support their growth. Water security is of particular concern for Filipino cities, which have been designated amongst the worst in Asia for urban water security. Changing climate and increasing urban population density will put more stress on their water resources. Current projections of climate up to 2050 suggest the Philippines will become warmer, with increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall during the dry season and more extreme rainfall events during the wet season. This will undoubtedly exacerbate both water availability during periods of drought and the magnitude of flood events during periods of heavy rainfall. This susceptibility has led to the Philippines being consistently ranked near the top of countries most at risk to climate change. In addition to water stresses from a changing climate, population is expected to increase by ~50% up to 2050, with urban population set to double over the same period. This will further exacerbate pressures on future water resources.The influence of climate and population change will have an acute impact on groundwater, which currently supplies more than 50% of the potable water supply and 85% of the piped water supply in the Philippines. Groundwater is strategically and economically important to current and future water supply and is the principle source of dry season river flows, which in turn are often used for potable supply. Despite the high reliance on groundwater resources, reasonable coverage of groundwater datasets and several regional-level groundwater management plans, there has been little in the way of real-time monitoring, routine monthly forecasting or impact assessment of climate and population stressors. Through a programme of data gathering, knowledge exchange, fieldwork, numerical modelling and stakeholder engagement the Philippines Groundwater Outlook (PhiGO) project seeks to undertake assessments of population and climate change impacts on regional groundwater resources and translate these into usable forecasts of flood and drought risk. There are two distinct timeframes at which uptake and potential benefits of the project will be realised. Short term, seasonal-scale forecasts will aid in reactive preparedness, whilst long term, decadal-scale forecasts can be used to take proactive steps towards reducing the future physical and economic impacts of extreme hydrometeorological events. To better understand the potential socio-economic impacts of groundwater level extremes and potential water management strategies, PhiGO is also focussed on quantifying the cascading impacts of flood and drought through key infrastructure and analysing the cost-benefit of differing water management and urban planning scenarios.

世界上人口超过10万的城市中有一半位于水流域内，一年中的部分时间，一半以上的可用水供应枯竭。这些水资源紧张的城市发现，要获得支持其发展所需的额外供水极其困难和昂贵。水安全是菲律宾城市特别关注的问题，菲律宾城市被列为亚洲城市水安全最差的城市之一。气候变化和城市人口密度的增加将给这些国家的水资源带来更大压力。目前对2050年前气候的预测表明，菲律宾将变得更加温暖，旱季气温上升，降雨量减少，雨季出现更多极端降雨事件。这无疑将加剧干旱期间的供水情况和暴雨期间的洪水规模。这种敏感性导致菲律宾一直被列为最容易受到气候变化影响的国家之首。除了气候变化带来的水资源压力外，预计到2050年人口将增加约50%，城市人口将在同一时期翻一番。这将进一步加剧未来水资源的压力。气候和人口变化的影响将对地下水产生严重影响，目前菲律宾50%以上的饮用水供应和85%的自来水供应都来自地下水。地下水对当前和未来的供水具有战略和经济重要性，是旱季河流的主要来源，而河流又常常用于饮用水供应。尽管高度依赖地下水资源，地下水数据集的覆盖范围合理，并制定了若干区域一级的地下水管理计划，但几乎没有对气候和人口压力因素进行实时监测、每月例行预报或影响评估。菲律宾地下水展望项目通过一项数据收集、知识交流、实地工作、数字建模和利益攸关方参与的方案，力求评估人口和气候变化对区域地下水资源的影响，并将其转化为可用的洪水和干旱风险预测。有两个不同的时间框架，在这两个时间框架中，项目的吸收和潜在效益将得以实现。短期的季节性预报将有助于反应性准备，而长期的十年期预报可用于采取积极措施，减少极端水文气象事件对未来的物理和经济影响。为了更好地了解地下水位极端事件的潜在社会经济影响和潜在的水资源管理策略，PhiGO还专注于通过关键基础设施量化洪水和干旱的级联影响，并分析不同水资源管理和城市规划方案的成本效益。