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Sensitivity of Estuaries to Climate Hazards (SEARCH)

河口对气候灾害的敏感性（搜索）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V004131/1
负责人：
Andrew Barkwith
金额：
$ 8.06万
依托单位：
British Geological Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV004131%2F1
关键词：
Sensitivity Estuaries Climate Hazards SEARCH

项目摘要

Twenty million people living near UK estuaries are at risk from compound flooding hazards. Recent near-miss flooding in UK catchments and estuaries (Dec-2013, Jan-2017) could have been much worse with subtle changes in surge-precipitation timings, although still caused extensive damage costing £500M. Estuary communities are especially vulnerable to future changes in flood risk; via sea-level rise combined with increases in storm surge heights - and changing precipitation and temperature patterns that will have profound impacts on fluvial behaviour. The SEARCH project will address this important issue directly by developing a new method to evaluate climate flooding hazards in UK estuaries. For the first time this method will be fit-for-purpose for compound flooding events across different spatial and temporal scales, and for different catchment and estuary types. This method will accurately resolve all hydrological and marine processes and their joint-probabilities. It will evaluate how climate predictions from UKCP18 downscale to flooding impact; hence, providing unique and crucial inundation and likelihood data for the EA, NRW and SEPA to identify the most vulnerable communities to compound flooding and to manage their resources effectively during incidence response. Importantly, we will show how compound flooding occurs and how sensitive different systems are to the different drivers of climate change. Global sea levels are expected to rise up to 1 m this century and for some regions like the UK, precipitation and temperature distributions are likely to change, with extreme events such as storms, heatwaves and droughts becoming more intense and seasonal with altered timings. Changes in the intensity of flood drivers are expected to affect the hazard and risk. However, we hypothesise that changes in their timings relative to one another will also be vital for flood risk. For example, the timings of fluvial events will likely change due to changes in precipitation and temperature affecting soil moisture and groundwater flow. As a proof of concept in the NERC project CHEST, the investigators established the sensitivity of estuaries to tide-surge-fluvial events acting in combination, isolating distinct zones within estuaries of increased risk depending on catchment size relative to the estuary, estuary shape and the timing of surge and fluvial events relative to each other. Changes in flood risk due to climate change will therefore be site specific, with the relative roles of hazard drivers varying spatially. Long-term changes in extreme events are often unforeseeable because our understanding of the integrated system is incomplete. Considering the high socio-economic and environmental value of estuaries, the complexity of compound hazards, the projected changes in drivers, and unregulated landuse management, it is timely to develop new strategies for mitigating against compound flooding and to develop improved risk assessment tools for flood protection.Working with the UK regulators of flooding, SEARCH will use past and new observations with UKCP18 projections of precipitation, temperature, fluvial flows, storm surge and sea level applied to a fast, tested and open-source hydrodynamic-groundwater model to simulate flooding hazards. We will simulate 14 systems that cover the range of locations and estuaries within the UK. Our results are urgently needed, as probabilistic methods of determining flood risk are obsolete because they do not capture the non-linear dynamics and do not include future changes. This two year project brings together world-leading researchers in catchment-to-coast environmental science (with PDRAs at Bangor and Hull Universities) to tackle this computationally challenging and under-investigated issue. This team have worked together successfully, with the involvement and support of key policy and industrial partners, establishing a new paradigm in flood risk and accumulating a vast amount of data.

居住在英国河口附近的2000万人面临着复合洪水的危险。最近在英国集水区和河口（2013年12月，2017年1月）发生的差点发生的洪水可能会更糟，因为浪涌降水时间发生了微妙的变化，尽管仍然造成了广泛的损失，耗资5亿英镑。河口社区特别容易受到未来洪水风险变化的影响;通过海平面上升加上风暴潮高度的增加-以及不断变化的降水和温度模式，这将对河流行为产生深远的影响。该项目将通过开发一种新方法来评估英国河口的气候洪水危害，直接解决这一重要问题。该方法将首次适用于不同时空尺度的复合洪水事件，以及不同的流域和河口类型。该方法能准确地求解所有水文过程和海洋过程及其联合概率。它将评估UKCP 18的气候预测如何降低洪水影响;因此，为EA，NRW和SEPA提供独特和关键的洪水和可能性数据，以确定最易受洪水影响的社区，并在发生率响应期间有效管理其资源。重要的是，我们将展示复合洪水是如何发生的，以及不同的系统对气候变化的不同驱动因素有多敏感。预计全球海平面在本世纪将上升1米，对于英国等一些地区，降水和温度分布可能会发生变化，风暴，热浪和干旱等极端事件变得更加强烈和季节性，时间也会发生变化。洪水驱动力强度的变化预计会影响危害和风险。然而，我们假设它们之间的相对时间变化对洪水风险也至关重要。例如，河流事件的时间可能会改变，由于降水和温度的变化影响土壤水分和地下水流。作为NERC项目CHEST的概念证明，研究人员确定了河口对潮汐-浪涌-河流事件的敏感性，这些事件共同作用，根据相对于河口的集水面积、河口形状以及浪涌和河流事件相对于彼此的时间，将风险增加的河口内的不同区域隔离开来。因此，气候变化引起的洪水风险变化将因地点而异，灾害驱动因素的相对作用在空间上各不相同。极端事件的长期变化往往是不可预见的，因为我们对综合系统的理解是不完整的。考虑到河口的高社会经济和环境价值、复合灾害的复杂性、驱动因素的预计变化以及不受管制的土地使用管理，现在是时候制定新的战略来减轻复合洪水，并开发改进的洪水保护风险评估工具。与英国洪水监管机构合作，联合国洪水管理委员会将利用过去和新的观测结果以及UKCP 18降水预测，将温度、河流流量、风暴潮和海平面应用于一个快速、经过测试的开源水动力学-地下水模型，以模拟洪水灾害。我们将模拟14个系统，覆盖范围的位置和河口在英国。我们的研究结果是迫切需要的，因为确定洪水风险的概率方法是过时的，因为它们不捕捉非线性动态，不包括未来的变化。这个为期两年的项目汇集了世界领先的研究人员在流域到海岸环境科学（与PDRA在班戈尔和船体大学），以解决这个计算上具有挑战性和调查不足的问题。该团队在关键政策和行业合作伙伴的参与和支持下成功合作，建立了洪水风险的新范式，并积累了大量数据。