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[Indonesia] Extreme rainfall and its effects on flood risk in Indonesia

[印度尼西亚] 极端降雨及其对印度尼西亚洪水风险的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S003274/1
负责人：
Chris Kilsby
金额：
$ 47.43万
依托单位：
Newcastle University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS003274%2F1
关键词：
Indonesia Extreme rainfall its effects

项目摘要

Indonesia suffers from severe flood risk due to a combination of its climate (intense monsoon rainfalls), geography (steep mountains and rivers) and the mega-cities built at the outlet of rivers. This risk is already severe and it is feared it will become worse as climate change takes affect and the population of the cities grows even larger with uncontrolled development. When floods strike, they are often the combination of several sources: high river flows, intense rainfall on impermeable ground in cities and storm surges from the sea. Even worse, they often affect several cities and towns at once - stretching emergency responses and disaster recovery even further. The project aims to understand how these flood events happen so that planning and mitigation strategies can be developed. This understanding includes: - when floods occur, and what warning can be given- what controls the spatial extent (how many cities may be damaged at once)- how large the river flows can be and how often they happen- what effect land use (deforestation, urbanisation) has on the size and speed of floods- how the flood size and frequency of occurrence may change in the future - how much damage is caused in cities by the floodsStrategies to manage the flood risk will be informed by better understanding, and may take the form of:- better insurance cover- better warning systems for areas likely to be flooded- changing and controlling land use- building flood diversions, defences, or detention reservoirsThe approach being taken for the research is to use computer models of rainfall, climate, river flows and cities, so that the effects of different floods and management strategies can be simulated safely. The project team is therefore made up of experts in meteorology, climate change, hydrology and computer modelling.

由于其气候（强烈的季风降雨）、地理（陡峭的山脉和河流）以及建在河流出口处的特大城市，印度尼西亚面临着严重的洪水风险。这种风险已经很严重，而且随着气候变化的影响以及城市人口因不受控制的发展而变得更加庞大，人们担心这种风险会变得更加严重。当洪水来袭时，往往是多种原因共同作用的：河水流量大、城市不透水地面上的强降雨以及来自海上的风暴潮。更糟糕的是，它们常常同时影响多个城镇——进一步扩大了应急响应和灾难恢复的范围。该项目旨在了解这些洪水事件是如何发生的，以便制定规划和缓解策略。这种理解包括： - 洪水发生时，可以发出什么警报 - 空间范围受什么控制（有多少城市可能同时受到破坏） - 河流流量有多大以及发生的频率 - 土地利用（森林砍伐、城市化）对洪水规模和速度有何影响 - 洪水规模和发生频率未来可能如何变化 - 洪水对城市造成多少损害管理洪水风险的策略将由更好的理解，可以采取以下形式： - 更好的保险覆盖 - 为可能发生洪水的地区提供更好的预警系统 - 改变和控制土地利用 - 建设分洪、防御或滞留水库研究采用的方法是使用降雨、气候、河流流量和城市的计算机模型，以便可以安全地模拟不同洪水和管理策略的影响。因此，该项目团队由气象学、气候变化、水文学和计算机建模领域的专家组成。