[Indonesia] Extreme rainfall and its effects on flood risk in Indonesia

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Indonesia suffers from severe flood risk due to a combination of its climate (intense monsoon rainfalls), geography (steep mountains and rivers) and the mega-cities built at the outlet of rivers. This risk is already severe and it is feared it will become worse as climate change takes affect and the population of the cities grows even larger with uncontrolled development. When floods strike, they are often the combination of several sources: high river flows, intense rainfall on impermeable ground in cities and storm surges from the sea. Even worse, they often affect several cities and towns at once - stretching emergency responses and disaster recovery even further. The project aims to understand how these flood events happen so that planning and mitigation strategies can be developed. This understanding includes: - when floods occur, and what warning can be given- what controls the spatial extent (how many cities may be damaged at once)- how large the river flows can be and how often they happen- what effect land use (deforestation, urbanisation) has on the size and speed of floods- how the flood size and frequency of occurrence may change in the future - how much damage is caused in cities by the floodsStrategies to manage the flood risk will be informed by better understanding, and may take the form of:- better insurance cover- better warning systems for areas likely to be flooded- changing and controlling land use- building flood diversions, defences, or detention reservoirsThe approach being taken for the research is to use computer models of rainfall, climate, river flows and cities, so that the effects of different floods and management strategies can be simulated safely. The project team is therefore made up of experts in meteorology, climate change, hydrology and computer modelling.