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SCaRP: Simulating Cascading Rainfall-triggered landslide hazards in the Philippines

SCaRP：模拟菲律宾级联降雨引发的山体滑坡灾害

基本信息

批准号：
NE/S003371/2
负责人：
Georgina Bennett
金额：
$ 39.72万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS003371%2F2
关键词：
SCaRP Simulating Cascading Rainfall triggered

项目摘要

The Philippines is on the eastern edge of the Maritime Continent, the archipelago of tropical islands that sits between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High solar input warms the surrounding seas, which supply an abundance of moisture to the atmosphere, turning the whole region into an atmospheric "boiler box". The whole Maritime Continent receives very high rainfall totals throughout the year but due to its location on the eastern edge of the Maritime Continent, the Philippines are also in the firing line of tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons or hurricanes) that form in the Pacific Ocean. Strong tropical cyclones can reach up more than 150 mph and deliver more than 450 mm rainfall in just a a few hours. These extreme rainfall events, combined with the steep, mountainous terrain over the Philippines can produce catastrophic landsliding and related sedimentation in rivers with major societal and economic impacts. The Philippines accounts for half of fatal rainfall triggered landslides in SE Asia despite making up only 6% of the land area. In 2004, a series of typhoons hit Quezon and Aurora Provinces on the east coast of the island of Luzon in the northern Philippines causing landslides and floods that left 1,062 dead, 1,161 injured and 552 missing, displaced almost 7 million people and caused massive economic damage and prolonged human costs. Under climate change, the frequency and intensity of typhoons can be expected to increase with implications for landslide hazards and sedimentation problems in rivers. The simulation of landslides resulting from typhoons is a complex problem as landslides are also dependent on weather conditions leading up to the extreme rainfall event that influence the stability of the layer of soil covering hillslopes. If soils are already wet leading up to an extreme rainfall event, landslides are more likely. It is therefore necessary to understand the meteorological patterns operating over the Philippines and how these influence patterns of landslides in typhoons. Another major factor that may limit landslide occurrence and size is the depth of the soil layer. A critical soil depth is needed for a landslide to occur and the size of the landslide will be limited by the depth of the soil. Once a landslide has occurred, it takes time for the soil layer to regenerate, with implications for future landslide hazard in the same area. Whilst landslide scars on hillslopes are exposed landslides may continue to deliver sediment to the downstream river system. Hence sedimentation problems in rivers downstream of landslides may persist for a period of years after the landslide event. The SCaRP project combines the research strengths of the UK and the Philippines and brings together experts in geomorphology, meteorology and hydraulic engineering to effectively and efficiently address the need for better understanding of the impact of hydrometeorological hazards and support increased preparedness and resilience to future events. First, the characteristics of past extreme rainfall-triggered landslide events and their meteorological and geological controls over the Philippines will be determined, using a combination of in situ station data from the Philippines and global data sets from satellites to map landslides and determine rainfall patterns. Second, a number of events will be used to develop and test models for simulation of landslides and downstream sedimentation. Once the model has been tuned, it will be used to predict landslide events and river sedimentation in the future using climate projections for the region. In conjunction with our Filipino project partners, PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration), (MGB) Mines and Geosciences Bureau and Weather Philippines Foundation (WPF), we will develop a landslide early warning system for the Philippines using our modeling framework, ensuring a legacy from the SCaRP project.

菲律宾位于海洋大陆的东部边缘，海洋大陆是位于印度洋和太平洋之间的热带岛屿群岛。大量的太阳辐射使周围的海洋变暖，从而为大气提供了大量的水分，使整个地区变成了一个大气“锅炉箱”。整个海洋大陆全年降雨量非常高，但由于其位于海洋大陆的东部边缘，菲律宾也处于太平洋形成的热带气旋（也称为台风或飓风）的火线上。强热带气旋可以达到超过150英里每小时，并提供超过450毫米的降雨量在短短几个小时。这些极端降雨事件，加上菲律宾陡峭的山区地形，可能会造成灾难性的滑坡和相关的河流沉积，造成重大的社会和经济影响。菲律宾占东南亚地区致命降雨引发山体滑坡的一半，尽管它只占陆地面积的6%。2004年，一系列台风袭击了菲律宾北方吕宋岛东海岸的奎松省和奥罗拉省，造成山体滑坡和洪水，造成1 062人死亡，1 161人受伤，552人失踪，近700万人流离失所，并造成巨大的经济损失和长期的人员伤亡。在气候变化的情况下，台风的频率和强度预计会增加，对滑坡灾害和河流沉积问题产生影响。台风引起的山体滑坡的模拟是一个复杂的问题，因为山体滑坡也取决于导致极端降雨事件的天气条件，这些降雨事件会影响覆盖山坡的土壤层的稳定性。如果土壤已经湿润，导致极端降雨事件，山体滑坡的可能性更大。因此，有必要了解菲律宾的气象模式，以及这些模式如何影响台风中的山体滑坡模式。可能限制滑坡发生和规模的另一个主要因素是土层深度。滑坡发生需要一个临界土壤深度，滑坡的大小将受到土壤深度的限制。一旦发生滑坡，土壤层需要时间才能再生，这对同一地区未来的滑坡灾害有影响。虽然山坡上的山泥倾泻痕迹已暴露出来，但山泥倾泻可能会继续把沉积物输送到下游的河流系统。因此，山泥倾泻发生后，山泥倾泻下游河流的泥沙问题可能会持续数年。SCaRP项目结合了英国和菲律宾的研究优势，汇集了地貌学，气象学和水利工程方面的专家，以有效和高效地解决更好地了解水文气象灾害影响的需求，并支持加强对未来事件的准备和恢复能力。首先，将利用菲律宾的现场台站数据和卫星提供的全球数据集，确定菲律宾过去极端的山体滑坡事件的特点及其对菲律宾的气象和地质控制，以绘制山体滑坡图并确定降雨模式。第二，将利用一些事件来开发和测试滑坡和下游沉积模拟模型。一旦模型得到调整，它将被用来预测未来的滑坡事件和河流沉积，使用该地区的气候预测。与我们的菲律宾项目合作伙伴PAGASA（菲律宾大气，地球物理和天文服务管理局），（MGB）矿业和地球科学局以及菲律宾气象基金会（WPF）一起，我们将使用我们的建模框架为菲律宾开发滑坡预警系统，确保SCaRP项目的遗产。