Predicting Impacts of Cyclones in South-East Africa (PICSEA)

预测东南非气旋的影响 (PICSEA)

• 批准号: NE/S005897/1
• 负责人: Nicholas Klingaman
• 金额: $ 32.16万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS005897%2F1
• 关键词: Predicting; Impacts; Cyclones; South; East

On average, 14 tropical cyclones per year form in the southern Indian Ocean, most in the months between November and April. Of these, about 2-3 cyclones per year make landfall in southeast Africa, most often in Mozambique and Madagascar. In these countries, tropical cyclones are associated with approximately one-third of all extreme daily precipitation events, defined as days with rainfall accumulations greater than 50 mm (2 inches). Tropical cyclone landfalls in Mozambique in 2012 caused severe flooding, resulting in US$65 million in damage and 150 deaths. Two cyclone landfalls in Madagascar in early 2018 resulted in 23 deaths and displaced 21,000. The Seychelles archipelago is also affected by tropical cyclones, including category 5 (the most severe) Fantala in 2016.Despite the vulnerability of the southeast African population to tropical cyclones and related hazards, little is known about the ability of contemporary weather and climate prediction systems to forecast cyclone tracks, intensities, and wind and rain impacts. Further, there may be particular tropical atmospheric circulation patterns that provide "windows of opportunity" for more accurate cyclone forecasts. For instance, El Nino conditions (warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures) may provide the backdrop for more accurate predictions of tropical cyclones and their impacts.The "Predicting Impacts of Cyclones in South-East Asia" (PICSEA) project addresses these shortcomings by providing the most comprehensive assessment of forecast systems to date for tropical cyclones and their effects on southeast Africa. This assessment is needed desperately to give advice to national meteorological agencies, humanitarian organisations and the growing forecast-based finance community on how best to interpret forecasts of tropical cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean. Specifically, PICSEA will determine which forecast systems, lead times and background tropical circulations lead to relatively more or less accurate tropical cyclone predictions. When should disaster management agencies trust a forecast for a landfalling tropical cyclone, and when should they not?Initially, PICSEA will assess the accuracy of predictions of tropical cyclone tracks, intensities and associated hazards (primarily wind and rain) from three weather forecasting centres: the UK Met Office, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction. We have 10-30 years of forecast data for each centre, including multiple realisations of each forecast. We will determine to what extent, and how far in advance, contemporary prediction systems can forecast the extreme winds and rainfall associated with tropical cyclones in southeast Africa.Next, PICSEA will determine whether there are particular background tropical conditions, such as El Nino or La Nina, that lead to more or less accurate forecasts. We will do this by evaluating forecast accuracy conditioned on the type of background conditions. Is skill for cyclone-related hazards greater during La Nina or El Nino? Are there particular circumstances under which forecasters and disaster-management agencies should trust these forecasts more, or less?Finally, PICSEA will work together with partner organisations -- national meteorological organisations in Mozambique, Madagascar and the Seychelles, as well as the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Center, a key provider of scientific advice to humanitarian organisations and the forecast-based finance community -- to develop guidance for interpreting tropical cyclone forecasts. We will work with forecasters and disaster-management agencies to improve their understanding of when they can, and cannot, trust forecast information on cyclone impacts. PICSEA will also provide training in the use of this guidance, as well as background training on tropical meteorology, for forecasters in southeast African meteorological agencies.

每年平均有14个热带气旋在南印度洋形成，大多数在11月至4月之间。其中，每年约有2-3个气旋在非洲东南部登陆，最常见的是莫桑比克和马达加斯加。在这些国家，热带气旋与所有极端日降水事件（定义为降雨量累积超过50毫米（2英寸）的天数）的约三分之一有关。2012年，热带气旋在莫桑比克登陆，引发严重洪灾，造成6500万美元的损失和150人死亡。2018年初，马达加斯加的两次气旋袭击导致23人死亡，21，000人流离失所。塞舌尔群岛也受到热带气旋的影响，包括2016年的5级（最严重的）Fantala。尽管东南非洲人口容易受到热带气旋和相关灾害的影响，但人们对当代天气和气候预测系统预测气旋路径，强度以及风雨影响的能力知之甚少。此外，可能有特定的热带大气环流模式，为更准确的气旋预报提供“机会之窗”。例如，厄尔尼诺现象（赤道太平洋温度升高）可能为更准确地预测热带气旋及其影响提供背景，“预测东南亚气旋的影响”项目通过对迄今为止热带气旋及其对东南非洲影响的预测系统进行最全面的评估，解决了这些不足。迫切需要这项评估，以便为国家气象机构，人道主义组织和日益增长的基于预测的金融界提供建议，以了解如何最好地解释南印度洋热带气旋的预测。具体而言，PICSEA将确定哪些预报系统、提前时间和背景热带环流导致相对或多或少准确的热带气旋预报。灾害管理机构什么时候应该相信热带气旋登陆的预报，什么时候不应该相信？最初，PICSEA将评估三个天气预报中心对热带气旋路径、强度和相关危害（主要是风和雨）的预测准确性：英国气象局、欧洲中期天气预报中心和美国国家环境预报中心。我们为每个中心提供10-30年的预测数据，包括每个预测的多次实现。我们将确定现代预测系统能在多大程度上提前多久预测与东南非洲热带气旋相关的极端风和降雨。接下来，PICSEA将确定是否有特殊的背景热带条件，如厄尔尼诺或拉尼娜，导致或多或少准确的预测。我们将通过评估以背景条件类型为条件的预测准确性来做到这一点。在拉尼娜或厄尔尼诺期间，与气旋有关的灾害的技能更强吗？在某些特殊情况下，预报员和灾害管理机构是否应该更多或更少地相信这些预报？最后，PICSEA将与伙伴组织-莫桑比克、马达加斯加和塞舌尔的国家气象组织，以及红十字/红新月气候中心-一个向人道主义组织和基于预报的金融界提供科学建议的主要机构-合作，制定解释热带气旋预报的指导。我们将与预报员和灾害管理机构合作，提高他们对何时可以和不可以信任飓风影响预报信息的理解。该方案还将为东南非洲气象机构的预报员提供使用这一指南的培训以及热带气象学背景培训。

项目成果

Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
• 发表时间: 2020-08
• 期刊: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: R. Emerton;H. Cloke;A. Ficchí;Laurence Hawker;Sara de Wit;L. Speight;C. Prudhomme;Philip Rundell-Philip-Rundel

Ensemble flood forecasting: Current status and future opportunities

• DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1432
• 发表时间: 2020-03-29
• 期刊: WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-WATER
• 影响因子: 8.2
• 作者: Wu, Wenyan;Emerton, Rebecca;Robertson, David E.
• 通讯作者: Robertson, David E.