Glacial Lakes in Peru: Evolution, Hazards and impacts of climate change.

秘鲁的冰川湖：气候变化的演变、危害和影响。

• 批准号: NE/S01330X/1
• 负责人: Stephan Harrison
• 金额: $ 67.49万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS01330X%2F1
• 关键词: Glacial; Lakes; Peru; Evolution; Hazards

Glaciers in Peru are undergoing rapid recession in response to climate change and this has helped produce numerous large glacial lakes, many of which are dammed by moraines and are likely to drain catastrophically if the moraine dams fail or are overtopped. A major trigger of lake drainage is rock slides and debris flows into lakes from recently-exposed valley walls and unstable moraines. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from these lakes pose a significant hazard to communities and infrastructure and also impact water supplies in the region. In Peru, outburst floods from glacial lakes have caused ~ 32,000 deaths in the 20th century, as well as destroying vital economic infrastructure, settlements and valuable arable land. Despite the importance of these lakes, there are many unanswered questions concerning their future behaviour and the future risk of GLOFs. For instance, we do not know how many glacial lakes there are in Peru, nor whether these are growing in size, nor whether they are becoming more or less vulnerable to rapid drainage caused by rock slides and debris flows. We therefore do not know which lakes might cause GLOFs, nor whether the risk of GLOFs is increasing or decreasing. As a result, this project will answer questions concerning the past, present and future development of glacial lakes and glacier hazards in Peruvian mountains. We will produce the first complete inventory of glacial lakes in all the glaciated mountain regions of Peru, assess their changes in size over time in response to past and future glacier recession and assess changes in their vulnerability to sudden drainage. We will investigate the changing magnitude, frequency, and distribution of GLOFs under current and future global climate change; produce the first complete inventory of historical GLOFs in Peru and identify sites that have the potential to develop glacial hazards in the future. We will, for the first time, assess the risk of landslides into glacial lakes now and into the future. We will use physically-based numerical models to simulate GLOFs at sites identified as posing a high hazard and use these simulations to make hazard and flood risk predictions that can inform decision-makers in Peru. To do this we will focus on five main issues:1. Glacial lake development and GLOF inventories in the past and presentUsing literature, remote-sensing and fieldwork, we will compile an inventory of all glacial lakes and past GLOF sites in the glaciated regions of Peru. 2. Climate modellingUse the latest generation of climate models to assess mountain areas of Peru at most risk of future warming and precipitation change. This will enable us to identify areas of future lake drainage risk and we will develop a ranking of mountain areas for future risk of lake drainage.3. Assessment of lake vulnerabilityWe will identify current and likely future glacier hazards focusing on the developing landslide and debris flow risk as glaciers recede; establish the locations of potential future vulnerable lakes and potential GLOF sites.4. Model GLOFs.We will (a) establish the physical processes that govern GLOF behaviour; (b) analyse flood hydrographs of selected former GLOFs to establish downstream impacts. 5. Assess the socio-economic effects of GLOFs in Peru and GLOF prediction: We will (a) identify potential GLOF sites across Peru and assess potential socio-economic vulnerability; (b) reconstruct former GLOFs and their impacts; (c) conduct numerical simulations of downstream impacts for potential GLOF sites.This proposal is ODA compliant as it will promote the economic development of Peru by providing improved risk reduction methods that can be applied to hydropower projects and high-altitude mines as well as to local communities through relevant government agencies. The GLOF risk protocols developed in this project can be applied to other DAC-listed countries where GLOF hazards exist (e.g. Argentina)

由于气候变化，秘鲁的冰川正在迅速消退，这有助于产生许多大型冰川湖，其中许多冰川湖由冰碛坝堵塞，如果冰碛坝失效或被冲垮，很可能会发生灾难性的排水。湖泊排水的一个主要触发因素是岩石滑坡和泥石流从最近暴露的山谷壁和不稳定的冰碛流入湖泊。来自这些湖泊的冰川湖爆发洪水（GLOFs）对社区和基础设施构成重大危害，并影响该地区的供水。在秘鲁，冰川湖爆发的洪水在20世纪已造成约32，000人死亡，并摧毁了重要的经济基础设施、定居点和宝贵的耕地。尽管这些湖泊很重要，但关于它们未来的行为和GLOFs未来的风险还有许多未解之谜。例如，我们不知道秘鲁有多少冰川湖，也不知道这些湖泊的规模是否在扩大，也不知道它们是否越来越容易受到岩石滑坡和泥石流造成的快速排水的影响。因此，我们不知道哪些湖泊可能导致GLOFs，也不知道GLOFs的风险是增加还是减少。因此，该项目将回答有关秘鲁山区冰湖和冰川灾害的过去、现在和未来发展的问题。我们将编制秘鲁所有冰川山区冰川湖的第一份完整清单，评估这些湖泊随着时间的推移因过去和未来冰川衰退而发生的规模变化，并评估这些湖泊易受突然排水影响的程度的变化。我们将调查的变化幅度，频率和分布的GLOFs下，当前和未来的全球气候变化，产生历史GLOFs在秘鲁的第一个完整的库存，并确定网站，有可能在未来发展冰川灾害。我们将第一次评估现在和未来山体滑坡进入冰川湖的风险。我们将使用基于物理的数值模型来模拟被确定为构成高风险的地点的GLOFs，并使用这些模拟来进行灾害和洪水风险预测，从而为秘鲁的决策者提供信息。为此，我们将重点关注五个主要问题：1。冰湖的发展和过去和现在的GLOF库存使用文献，遥感和实地考察，我们将编制一份清单的所有冰湖和过去的GLOF网站在秘鲁的冰川地区。2.气候模型使用最新一代的气候模型来评估秘鲁山区未来变暖和降水变化的风险。这将使我们能够确定未来湖泊排水风险的地区，我们将为未来湖泊排水风险制定山区排名。湖泊脆弱性评估我们将确定当前和未来可能发生的冰川灾害，重点是随着冰川退缩而发生的滑坡和泥石流风险;确定未来潜在脆弱湖泊和潜在GLOF地点的位置。模型GLOFs。我们将（a）建立控制GLOF行为的物理过程;（B）分析选定的前GLOFs的洪水过程线，以确定下游影响。5.评估秘鲁全球冰川断裂带的社会经济影响和全球冰川断裂带预测：我们将（a）在秘鲁各地确定潜在的全球冰川断裂带地点，并评估潜在的社会经济脆弱性;（B）重建以前的全球冰川断裂带及其影响;（c）第（1）款对潜在的GLOF场地的下游影响进行数值模拟。该提案符合ODA要求，因为它将通过提供改进的风险降低方法来促进秘鲁的经济发展，通过相关政府机构应用于水电项目和高海拔矿山以及当地社区。本项目中制定的GLOF风险协议可适用于存在GLOF危险的其他DAC列出的国家（例如阿根廷）

项目成果

A new GLOF inventory for the Peruvian and Bolivian Andes

秘鲁和玻利维亚安第斯山脉的新 GLOF 库存

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9744
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Emmer A

Contemporary glacial lakes in the Peruvian Andes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103574
• 发表时间: 2021-09
• 期刊: Global and Planetary Change
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: J. Wood;S. Harrison;R. Wilson;A. Emmer;C. Yarlequé;N. Glasser;J. Torres;A. Caballero;J. Araujo;G. Bennett;A. Diaz-Moreno;D. Garay;H. Jara;C. Poma;J. Reynolds;C. Riveros;E. Romero;S. Shannon;T. Tinoco;E. Turpo;H. Villafane

Mapping Three Decades of Changes in the Tropical Andean Glaciers Using Landsat Data Processed in the Earth Engine

使用地球引擎处理的陆地卫星数据绘制热带安第斯冰川三个十年的变化

• DOI: 10.3390/rs14091974
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Remote Sensing
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Turpo Cayo E

What’s in a lake? Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Peruvian Andes.

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• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12241
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Wood J