Meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate: Exploiting Earth System Models to determine the role of future land-use change

满足《巴黎气候协定》：利用地球系统模型确定未来土地利用变化的作用

• 批准号: NE/S015396/1
• 负责人: Catherine Scott
• 金额: $ 73.57万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FS015396%2F1
• 关键词: Meeting; Paris; Agreement; Climate; Exploiting

This Fellowship will exploit the next generation of climate models to make the UK's first assessment of the potential for land-use change policy (e.g., reduced deforestation and increased afforestation) to help society meet climate targets. Three years ago, an ambitious global agreement was signed in Paris to try and limit warming due to climate change to less than 2 degrees since the pre-industrial period; we're already at almost 1 degree. Scientists can use detailed computer simulations to try and understand what could happen to the climate in the future; by 2050 in scenarios that succeed in limiting warming to the levels specified in the Paris Agreement, society is no longer a net emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but we are drawing more GHGs out of the air than we're putting in. The longer it takes global GHG emissions to peak the greater the extent of GHG removal, or negative emissions, we will require. There are a couple of ways that net negative emissions could be achieved. Currently, the most technologically feasible is through eliminating deforestation and engaging in large-scale afforestation and reforestation. Another way, which relies on future technological developments, is to burn biomass to generate energy and then capture and store any GHGs that would have been emitted in deep geological reservoirs. Initial estimates suggest that an area the size of Australia would need to be dedicated to growing energy crops in order to generate sufficient negative emissions through this process. My previous research has demonstrated that forests and other vegetation can have a cooling impact on the climate because of interactions between plants and the composition of the atmosphere. Plants emit a wide range of gases into the air, the kind that give pine forests their distinctive smell. These gases take part in complex chemical reactions and can go on to form particles that act as seeds for cloud droplet formation. This process is important because the more droplets there are in a cloud, the brighter and more reflective of the Sun's energy it is, helping to cool the climate. My previous work also indicates that the cooling effects due to these natural particles could become stronger as global temperatures rise; this may act to slightly dampen the warming caused by higher GHG concentrations. During my Fellowship, I will develop and use the UK's first fully-coupled Earth System Model (UKESM) to assess the potential for future land-use change to help meet global climate targets. I will work with international organisations to ensure that UKESM contains state-of-the-science understanding of biosphere-atmosphere interactions; using a fully-coupled ESM to explore this represents a step-change in the way we can evaluate impacts on, and of, future climate.

该奖学金将利用下一代气候模型，对英国土地利用变化政策的潜力进行首次评估（例如，减少森林砍伐和增加植树造林），以帮助社会实现气候目标。三年前，一项雄心勃勃的全球协议在巴黎签署，试图将气候变化导致的变暖限制在自工业化前时期以来的2度以下;我们已经接近1度。科学家可以使用详细的计算机模拟来尝试了解未来气候可能发生的变化;到2050年，在成功将变暖限制在巴黎协定规定的水平的情况下，社会不再是温室气体（GHG）的净排放者，但我们从空气中吸收的GHG比我们投入的更多。全球温室气体排放达到峰值所需的时间越长，我们需要的温室气体清除或负排放的程度就越大。有几种方法可以实现净负排放。目前，技术上最可行的办法是消除森林砍伐和大规模植树造林和重新造林。另一种依赖于未来技术发展的方法是燃烧生物质来产生能量，然后捕获和储存任何可能在深层地质水库中排放的温室气体。初步估计表明，需要将澳大利亚大小的面积专门用于种植能源作物，以便通过这一过程产生足够的负排放。我以前的研究表明，森林和其他植被可以对气候产生冷却作用，因为植物和大气成分之间的相互作用。植物向空气中排放各种各样的气体，这种气体使松树林具有独特的气味。这些气体参与复杂的化学反应，并可以继续形成粒子，作为云滴形成的种子。这个过程很重要，因为云中的水滴越多，它就越亮，越能反射太阳的能量，有助于冷却气候。我以前的工作还表明，随着全球气温的上升，这些自然颗粒的冷却效应可能会变得更强;这可能会稍微抑制温室气体浓度升高造成的变暖。在我的奖学金期间，我将开发和使用英国的第一个完全耦合地球系统模型（UKESM），以评估未来土地利用变化的潜力，以帮助实现全球气候目标。我将与国际组织合作，确保UKESM包含对生物圈-大气相互作用的科学理解;使用完全耦合的ESM来探索这一点代表了我们评估未来气候影响的方式的一个步骤。

项目成果

Comparison of particle number size distribution trends in ground measurements and climate models

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-22-12873-2022
• 发表时间: 2022-10
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: V. Leinonen;H. Kokkola;T. Yli-Juuti;T. Mielonen;T. Kühn;T. Nieminen;Simo Heikkinen;Tuuli Miinalainen;T. Bergman;K. Carslaw;S. Decesari;M. Fiebig;T. Hussein;N. Kivekäs;R. Krejci;M. Kulmala;A. Leskinen;A. Massling;N. Mihalopoulos;J. Mulcahy;S. Noe;T. van Noije;F. O’Connor;C. O’Dowd;D. Oliviè;J. Pernov;T. Petäjä;Ø. Seland;Michael Schulz;C. Scott;H. Skov;E. Swietlicki;T. Tuch;A. Wiedensohler;A. Virtanen;S. Mikkonen

Climate-driven chemistry and aerosol feedbacks in CMIP6 Earth system models

CMIP6 地球系统模型中气候驱动的化学和气溶胶反馈

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Thornhill G

Evaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): mineral dust

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-10295-2021
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: R. Checa‐Garcia;Y. Balkanski;S. Albani;T. Bergman;K. Carslaw;A. Cozic;C. Dearden;B. Marticorena;M. Michou;T. van Noije;P. Nabat;F. O’Connor;D. Oliviè;J. Prospero;Philipp Le Sager;Michael Schulz;C. Scott

A global model perturbed parameter ensemble study of secondary organic aerosol formation

二次有机气溶胶形成的全局模型扰动参数集合研究

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-2693-2021
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: Sengupta K

Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-2019-357
• 发表时间: 2020-03
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: J. Mulcahy;Colin E. Johnson;Colin G. Jones;A. Povey;C. Scott;A. Sellar;S. Turnock;M. Woodhouse;N. Abraham;M. Andrews;N. Bellouin;J. Browse;K. Carslaw;M. Dalvi;G. Folberth;M. Glover;D. Grosvenor;C. Hardacre;R. Hill;B. Johnson;Andy Jones;Z. Kipling;G. Mann;J. Mollard;F. O’Connor;J. Palmiéri;C. Reddington;S. Rumbold;M. Richardson;N. Schutgens;P. Stier;M. Stringer;Yongming Tang;J. Walton;S. Woodward;A. Yool