Rift Propagation for Ice Sheet Models

冰盖模型的裂谷传播

• 批准号: NE/T008016/1
• 负责人: Adrian Luckman
• 金额: $ 79.65万
• 依托单位: Swansea University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT008016%2F1
• 关键词: Rift; Propagation; Ice; Sheet; Models

Modelled projections of the contribution of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise over this century vary from a few centimetres to more than one metre - a huge uncertainty which undermines the credibility of sea level rise projections. The reasons for this uncertainty lie in the treatment of ice shelves - the floating extensions of ice sheets which constrain the flow of ice from the interior to the ocean. Assuming that ice shelves will disintegrate leads to a much higher estimate of ice discharge than assuming they remain in place. No forecast so far, however, has included the processes of ice fracture and rift propagation that lead to ice shelf disintegration. These processes disrupt the normal assumptions of continuity inherent in ice sheet models and are highly dependent on the heterogeneous nature of ice shelves. We will overcome this fundamental limitation in sea level rise projections by explicitly representing heterogeneity in ice shelves and pioneering the inclusion of rift processes in an ice sheet model. We will meet these challenges by collecting new field and satellite data to quantify ice shelf heterogeneity and developing a fracture physics approach to simulate rift propagation. RIPFISH will enable a new generation of ice sheet models to achieve a step-change improvement in quantifying and reducing uncertainties in sea level rise projections.

对南极冰盖在本世纪造成海平面上升的影响所作的模拟预测从几厘米到一米多不等-这种巨大的不确定性破坏了海平面上升预测的可信度。这种不确定性的原因在于冰架的处理-冰盖的浮动延伸，限制了冰从内部流向海洋。假设冰架将解体导致比假设它们保持在原地更高的冰排放估计。然而，到目前为止，还没有预测包括导致冰架解体的冰破裂和裂缝扩展过程。这些过程破坏了冰盖模型中固有的连续性的正常假设，并且高度依赖于冰架的异质性。我们将克服这一根本性的限制，在海平面上升的预测明确表示冰架的异质性和开拓性的包含在冰盖模型的裂谷过程。我们将通过收集新的现场和卫星数据来量化冰架的异质性，并开发一种模拟裂缝传播的断裂物理方法来应对这些挑战。RIPFISH将使新一代冰盖模型能够在量化和减少海平面上升预测的不确定性方面实现逐步改进。

项目成果

Brief Communication: Rapid acceleration of the Brunt Ice Shelf after calving of iceberg A-81

简讯：A-81 冰山崩解后布伦特冰架迅速加速

• DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1949
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Marsh O