Propagation of ocean-driven ice-shelf thinning and consequences for the interior of Antarctica and global sea level.

通过利用冰盖建模的三个重要新进展和主要的新的全舌数据集，我们的目标是预测观测到的海洋驱动的浮冰架变薄将传播到南极冰盖内部的距离和速度，并评估十年到世纪时间尺度上全球海平面的后果。而以前的研究已经使用简化模型，理想化的强迫，或有限的域，我们将使用一个全面的初始化模型，整个南极洲的冰流，包括传播变薄到内部的所有机械过程，以产生一个高度逼真的模拟，可以预测地面冰盖的响应卫星观测到的冰架变薄。我们将验证模拟进一步的卫星观测，然后使用它们与冰架融化的情况下，海洋模型的指导下，从南极洲到2100年的未来海平面贡献的概率预测。

By exploiting three important new advances in ice sheet modelling, and major new Antarctic-wide datasets, we aim to predict how far and how fast the observed ocean-driven thinning of floating ice shelves will propagate into the interior of the Antarctic ice sheet, and assess the consequences for global sea level over decadal-to-century timescales. Whereas previous studies have used simplified models, idealised forcing, or limited domains, we will use a comprehensively initialised model of ice flow throughout Antarctica, including all mechanical processes that propagate thinning into the interior, to produce a highly-realistic simulation that can predict the response of the grounded ice sheet to the ice-shelf thinning observed by satellite. We will validate the simulations against further satellite observations, before using them with scenarios of ice-shelf melt, guided by ocean models, to produce a probabilistic forecast of the future sea-level contribution from Antarctica to 2100.