Propagation of ocean-driven ice-shelf thinning and consequences for the interior of Antarctica and global sea level.

通过利用冰盖模拟方面的三个重要新进展和整个南极的主要新数据集，我们的目标是预测观测到的海洋驱动的浮动冰架变薄将在多大程度上和多快地传播到南极冰盖内部，并评估在十年到百年的时间尺度上对全球海平面的影响。尽管以前的研究使用了简化的模型、理想化的强迫或有限的区域，但我们将使用整个南极洲冰流的全面初始化模型，包括向内部传播变薄的所有机械过程，以产生一个高度逼真的模拟，可以预测地面冰盖对卫星观测到的冰架变薄的反应。我们将根据进一步的卫星观测来验证这些模拟，然后在海洋模型的指导下，将它们用于冰架融化的情景，以产生从南极洲到2100年未来海平面贡献的概率预测。

By exploiting three important new advances in ice sheet modelling, and major new Antarctic-wide datasets, we aim to predict how far and how fast the observed ocean-driven thinning of floating ice shelves will propagate into the interior of the Antarctic ice sheet, and assess the consequences for global sea level over decadal-to-century timescales. Whereas previous studies have used simplified models, idealised forcing, or limited domains, we will use a comprehensively initialised model of ice flow throughout Antarctica, including all mechanical processes that propagate thinning into the interior, to produce a highly-realistic simulation that can predict the response of the grounded ice sheet to the ice-shelf thinning observed by satellite. We will validate the simulations against further satellite observations, before using them with scenarios of ice-shelf melt, guided by ocean models, to produce a probabilistic forecast of the future sea-level contribution from Antarctica to 2100.