The Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics: National Capability Science Programme April 2019 - March 2021

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COMET delivers Earth Observation (EO) research that helps us to understand volcanic and tectonic processes and hazards. We use a combination of EO data, ground-based measurements, and geophysical models focusing on three key areas:- Earth Observation Data and Services;- Tectonics and Seismic Hazard; and - Magmatism and Volcanic Hazard.These activities support world-leading research within COMET and in the wider community, as well as helping society to respond to natural disasters.Our research is long-term because developing successful EO methods can take decades, whilst we observe natural phenomena whose durations outlast single research grants. For example, our 20+ years of research using and developing satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) for measuring ground deformation has enabled us to develop a real-timeservice delivering deformation data to the scientific community. By combining this data with our expertise, during a seismic or volcanic crisis, we can provide reliable, rapid advice to government, the scientific community, and local partners. This collaborative work also leads to new insights into earthquake or volcanic processes, and helps us to develop hte next generation of technologies, datasets and services. Our long-term collaborations with partners across the globe worldwide also make us uniquely placed to develop partnerships with and between developing nations (many on the DAC list) that help to identify and address natural hazard. Damaging earthquakes strike suddenly and without warning, but their spatial distribution is not random. To make progress in reducing the impact of earthquakes, we need to understand the distribution of seismic hazard in space and time. This has often relied on catalogues of previous earthquakes, but this approach is inaccurate in regions, including much of the continental tectonic belts, where earthquakes are infrequent.COMET scientists instead use crustal strain measurements to indicate future earthquake hazard. Over tens of years, measurements of the subtle warping of Earth's surface around faults can be used to the estimate rates at which stresses are accumulating. On a longer timescale, fault movements modify the landscape - geomorphology combined with field studies and Quaternary dating can be used to estimate rates of tectonic activity, even for faults that are too slow to be identified by satellite measurements. COMET's interdisciplinary approach is improving these measurements by using higher-resolution, more accurate measurements of short-term strain rates from satellites, improved surface elevation data for geomorphology, field studies in key areas, and improved physical models that link these observations to past and future seismic hazard.In contrast to earthquakes, volcanic eruptions often enter periods of unrest that may or may not result in eruption. However, with >1400 volcanoes above sea level, manyin developing countries or remote regions, global ground-based monitoring is not feasible and at the moment only 20% of these volcanoes are monitored adequately. But ever- increasing quantities of satellite data are providing new insights into volcanic and magmatic systems, and COMET has developed the capability to observe volcanic deformation and degassing on global scales at regular short intervals using satellite data, alongside tools for modelling deformation, combining a range of techniques.Further work is required on automatic production of our key data sets and on developing response protocols in collaboration with key national and international partners. However, our record of providing rapid advice to UK and overseas authorities and decision makers, and our influence on long-term hazard strategies, for example in Iran, Kazakhstan and Ethiopia, highlight the impact of our work in this area and represents a considerable reputational benefit to UK science.