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Southern Ocean carbon indices and metrics (SARDINE)

南大洋碳指数和指标（沙丁鱼）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T01069X/1
负责人：
Andrew Meijers
金额：
$ 5.65万
依托单位：
British Antarctic Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT01069X%2F1
关键词：
Southern Ocean carbon indices metrics

项目摘要

The Southern Ocean provides the primary window by which the atmosphere affects the properties of the interior ocean and, in turn, how the deep ocean affects the atmosphere. Surface waters formed here are transferred at depth over the global ocean and deep waters are returned to the sea surface. The role of the global ocean in the carbon cycle is strongly controlled by this dual activity: surface waters leaving the Southern Ocean act to drawdown atmospheric carbon dioxide, while deep waters are carbon rich and so when deep waters return to the sea surface carbon dioxide is outgassed to the atmosphere.There are ongoing changes in the volume of Southern Ocean mode waters, which are projected to vary in a nonlinear manner with different emission scenarios, together with changes in the overturning circulation associated with atmospheric changes over Antarctica. What is unclear are the associated changes in ocean carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean together with the wider effects on global carbon and climate metrics. For example, if the stratification strengthens and ventilation weakens in the Southern Ocean, what then are the resulting effects for the carbon and climate system?We need to know how the Southern Ocean is sequestering heat and carbon, and how that uptake is likely to alter with climate change. By drawing upon ventilation and overturning diagnostics from a mainly physical programme (ORCHESTRA), we will identify how much carbon is taken up in different water masses and identify the changes in carbon pools corresponding to different physical, biological and chemical processes.We need to know how the Southern Ocean alters global carbon feedbacks in the climate system. By identifying the changes in ocean carbon inventories in Earth system model projections for 1% annual rise in CO2, we will reveal the effect of the Southern Ocean on global carbon-cycle feedbacks, as well as identify how their components alter with changes in physical, chemical and biological processes.Similarly, we need to know how the Southern Ocean affects global climate metrics, including how much surface warming is expected for a given cumulative carbon emission, how much carbon may be emitted to avoid exceeding warming targets and the extent of delayed peak warming after emissions cease. Through combined heat and carbon diagnostics of Earth system models following Representative Concentration Pathways, we will identify the effect of the Southern Ocean on the global surface warming response to carbon emissions, the maximum permitted carbon emission to avoid warming targets and how much global surface warming might occur after emissions cease.This work is crucial if we are to understand how Southern Ocean circulation and ventilation changes affect global carbon and climate metrics in a warming world. The Southern Ocean dominates global ocean heat and carbon uptake, but is poorly represented in global climate models. There is a wide spread across current Earth system models in their ocean physical and biogeochemical representation of the recent past, and often dramatic differences between models in their projections for the future under climate forcing. This study will allow us to attribute for the first time the contribution of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the Southern Ocean to various critical global climate metrics. Through a synthesis of these climate metrics with new understanding of the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Southern Ocean revealed by ongoing projects ORCHESTRA and RoSES, we will be able to produce new interpretations of the spread in projected climate futures and identify the effect of the Southern Ocean on the uncertainty.

南大洋提供了大气影响海洋内部性质的主要窗口，反过来，深海如何影响大气。这里形成的表层沃茨在全球海洋的深处转移，而深层沃茨则返回海面。全球海洋在碳循环中的作用受到这种双重活动的强烈控制：离开南大洋的表面沃茨用于减少大气中的二氧化碳，而深层沃茨富含碳，因此当深层沃茨返回到海表面时，二氧化碳被释放到大气中。南大洋模式沃茨的体积正在发生变化，这些预测将随着不同的排放情景以及与南极上空大气变化相关的翻转环流的变化而以非线性方式变化。目前尚不清楚的是南大洋海洋碳吸收的相关变化以及对全球碳和气候指标的更广泛影响。例如，如果南大洋的分层加强，通风减弱，那么对碳和气候系统的影响是什么？我们需要知道南大洋是如何吸收热量和碳的，以及这种吸收可能如何随着气候变化而改变。通过利用一个主要物理项目（ORCHESTRA）的通风和翻转诊断，我们将确定不同水团吸收了多少碳，并确定对应于不同物理、生物和化学过程的碳库变化。我们需要知道南大洋如何改变气候系统中的全球碳反馈。通过确定地球系统模式预测中CO2年上升1%的海洋碳清单的变化，我们将揭示南大洋对全球碳循环反馈的影响，并确定其组成部分如何随着物理，化学和生物过程的变化而变化。同样，我们需要知道南大洋如何影响全球气候指标，包括对于给定的累积碳排放，预计地表变暖多少，可以排放多少碳以避免超过变暖目标，以及排放停止后延迟的峰值变暖程度。通过对地球系统模型的热量和碳的综合诊断，我们将确定南大洋对全球表面变暖对碳排放的影响，避免变暖目标的最大允许碳排放量以及排放停止后可能发生的全球表面变暖程度。如果我们要了解南大洋环流和通风变化如何影响全球碳和气候指标在一个变暖的世界。南大洋在全球海洋热量和碳吸收中占主导地位，但在全球气候模型中表现不佳。目前的地球系统模型对最近过去的海洋物理和地球化学的表述有很大的差异，在气候强迫下，模型对未来的预测往往有很大的差异。这项研究将使我们能够首次将南大洋的物理、生物和化学过程对各种关键的全球气候指标的贡献归因于此。通过对这些气候指标的综合，以及对正在进行的项目ORCHESTRA和Roses揭示的南大洋物理和地球化学性质的新理解，我们将能够对预测气候未来的传播产生新的解释，并确定南大洋对不确定性的影响。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（3）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

The role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate response to carbon emissions.

DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2022.0062
发表时间：
2023-06-26
期刊：
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
影响因子：
5
作者：
Williams, Richard G.;Ceppi, Paulo;Roussenov, Vassil;Katavouta, Anna;Meijers, Andrew J. S.
通讯作者：
Meijers, Andrew J. S.

The role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate response to carbon emissions

南大洋在全球气候应对碳排放中的作用