ENCORE is the National Capability ORCHESTRA Extension (ENCORE)

ENCORE 是国家管弦乐队能力扩展 (ENCORE)

• 批准号: NE/V013254/1
• 负责人: Andrew Meijers
• 金额: $ 92.24万
• 依托单位: British Antarctic Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV013254%2F1
• 关键词: ENCORE; National; Capability; ORCHESTRA; Extension

Climate change is one of the most urgent issues facing humanity and life on Earth. Better predictions of future climate change are needed, so that measures to reduce its impact and cope with its effects can be put in place. However, improving these predictions requires better knowledge of how the global climate system functions, and this knowledge is currently incomplete. A critical gap concerns understanding of the uptake of heat and carbon by the oceans. Over 90% of the extra heat now present in the Earth System because of global warming has entered the ocean, with strong increases in both the upper and deep ocean apparent since the 1970s. Further, the global ocean is the largest reservoir of carbon in the climate system, and has absorbed nearly one-third of the extra carbon emissions produced since the industrial revolution. Climate change in the atmosphere is strongly moderated by these processes, and would be dramatically greater without them.The Southern Ocean - the vast ocean that encircles Antarctica - is critically important in this regard. Because of the nature of its circulation, its physical and chemical properties, and its connections with the rest of the globe, it accounts for around half of the oceanic uptake of carbon, and around three-quarters of the heat uptake. However, because of its remoteness and hostile environment, with stormy seas, heavy sea ice in places, and long periods of darkness in winter, the Southern Ocean is also the least-measured and least-understood ocean in the world. One consequence of this lack of understanding is that the representations of the Southern Ocean in many of the models used to create future climate projections are not fit for purpose.Our project, ENCORE is the National Capability ORchestra Extension (ENCORE) extends the original Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports (ORCHESTRA) by a year. It represents a linking together of many of the major environmental research institutes in the UK, who will work with national and international partners to address these issues. We will carry on our unique combination of data collection, novel analyses and computer simulations to radically improve our ability to measure, understand and predict the circulation and role in global climate of the Southern Ocean. In the single field season available to us data collection will include three cruise elements continuing our long term monitoring of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean to determine the basin-scale transports of heat and carbon in all the different ocean layers (near-surface, intermediate, abyssal). It will also carry on flights with research aircraft to determine climatically-important transfers of heat and carbon between the atmosphere and ocean in all different conditions of sea ice. Information gathered by previous such field work will continue to be examined, producing new insights into ocean processes and improvements to ocean models. An important element of ENCORE will be the synthesis of the new information and understanding gathered over the ORCHESTRA period both with itself and with complimentary parallel projects such as RoSES, SOCCOM and SO-CHIC. This synthesis will produce a holistic understanding of the Atlantic sector and wider Southern Ocean's impact on global climate, and how it may change in the future. ENCORE will work closely with the Met Office in particular to see that such understanding is pulled through to examine the ability of the HadGEM and other UK climate models to replicate the complex dynamics of the region, and to suggest improvements to future iterations of these models.

气候变化是人类和地球上生命面临的最紧迫问题之一。需要更好地预测未来的气候变化，以便采取措施减少其影响并科普其后果。然而，改善这些预测需要更好地了解全球气候系统的运作方式，而这方面的知识目前还不完整。对海洋吸收热量和碳的理解存在重大差距。由于全球变暖，现在地球系统中超过90%的额外热量已经进入海洋，自20世纪70年代以来，上层和深海的热量明显增加。此外，全球海洋是气候系统中最大的碳库，吸收了自工业革命以来产生的近三分之一的额外碳排放。大气中的气候变化受到这些过程的强烈缓和，如果没有这些过程，气候变化的幅度会大得多。南大洋--环绕南极洲的广阔海洋--在这方面至关重要。由于其环流的性质、物理和化学特性以及与地球仪其他部分的联系，它占海洋吸收碳的一半左右，占热量吸收的四分之三左右。然而，由于它的偏远和恶劣的环境，暴风雨的海洋，沉重的海冰，以及冬季长时间的黑暗，南大洋也是世界上测量和了解最少的海洋。这种缺乏理解的一个后果是，在许多用于创建未来气候预测的模型中，南大洋的代表性并不适合我们的目的。我们的项目ENCORE是国家能力管弦乐队扩展（ENCORE），将原来的海洋调节气候的热量和碳封存和运输（ORCHESTRA）延长了一年。它代表了联合王国许多主要环境研究机构的联系，这些机构将与国家和国际伙伴合作解决这些问题。我们将继续进行我们独特的数据收集，新颖的分析和计算机模拟相结合，从根本上提高我们测量，理解和预测南大洋环流及其在全球气候中的作用的能力。在我们可获得的单场季节中，数据收集将包括三个巡航要素，继续我们对南大洋大西洋部分的长期监测，以确定所有不同海洋层（近表面，中间，深海）中热量和碳的盆地规模传输。它还将与研究飞机一起进行飞行，以确定在所有不同的海冰条件下，大气和海洋之间的热量和碳的气候重要转移。将继续审查以往这类实地工作收集的信息，对海洋过程提出新的见解，并改进海洋模型。ENCORE的一个重要组成部分将是对在ORCHESTRA期间收集的新信息和理解的综合，包括它本身以及与Roses，SOCCOM和SO-CHIC等互补的平行项目。这一综合将产生对大西洋部分和更广泛的南大洋对全球气候的影响，以及它在未来可能如何变化的全面理解。ENCORE将与英国气象局密切合作，特别是要确保这种理解能够通过检查HadGEM和其他英国气候模型复制该地区复杂动态的能力，并建议改进这些模型的未来迭代。

项目成果

AirSeaFluxCode: Open-source software for calculating turbulent air-sea fluxes from meteorological parameters

• DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.1049168
• 发表时间: 2023-02-06
• 期刊: FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Biri, Stavroula;Cornes, Richard C.;Yelland, Margaret J.
• 通讯作者: Yelland, Margaret J.

Supplementary table and figures from The role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate response to carbon emissions

补充表和数据来自南大洋在全球气候碳排放响应中的作用

• DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.22337936
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Williams R

Finale: impact of the ORCHESTRA/ENCORE programmes on Southern Ocean heat and carbon understanding.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0070
• 发表时间: 2023-06-26
• 期刊: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Meijers, Andrew J. S.;Meredith, Michael P.;Shuckburgh, Emily F.;Kent, Elizabeth C.;Munday, David R.;Firing, Yvonne L.;King, Brian;Smyth, Tim J.;Leng, Melanie J.;Nurser, A. J. George;Hewitt, Helene T.;Abrahamsen, E. Povl;Weiss, Alexandra;Yang, Mingxi;Bell, Thomas G.;Brearley, J. Alexander;Boland, Emma J. D.;Jones, Daniel C.;Josey, Simon A.;Owen, Robyn P.;Grist, Jeremy P.;Blaker, Adam T.;Biri, Stavroula;Yelland, Margaret J.;Pimm, Ciara;Zhou, Shenjie;Harle, James;Cornes, Richard C.
• 通讯作者: Cornes, Richard C.

A clearer view of Southern Ocean air-sea interaction using surface heat flux asymmetry.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2022.0067
• 发表时间: 2023-06-26
• 期刊: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
• 影响因子: 5
• 作者: Josey, Simon A.;Grist, Jeremy P.;Mecking, Jennifer V.;Moat, Ben I.;Schulz, Eric
• 通讯作者: Schulz, Eric

A novel heuristic method for detecting overfit in unsupervised classification of climate model data

• DOI: 10.1017/eds.2023.40
• 发表时间: 2023-12
• 期刊: Environmental Data Science
• 作者: E. Boland;Erin Atkinson;Dani C. Jones