Assessing Individual And Local Scale Forest Vulnerability To Mortality From The 2019 Extreme Drought In Central Europe

评估 2019 年中欧极端干旱造成的个体和局部森林死亡脆弱性

• 批准号: NE/V00929X/1
• 负责人: Alistair Jump
• 金额: $ 6.68万
• 依托单位: University of Stirling
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV00929X%2F1
• 关键词: Assessing; Individual; Local; Scale; Forest

Climate change is having significant impacts on the health of trees and forest ecosystems globally. For many regions, the frequency and intensity of drought events are predicted to increase under future climate scenarios. Consequently, widespread reductions in forest growth and increases in the extent and severity of die-off events are anticipated as the climate warms and drought events become more frequent and intense. While the effects of drought events have often been observed at the hot and dry margins of species distributions, alarmingly, recent drought-linked die-off has occurred within the core area of species ranges where climatic conditions should be most favourable. Global models of vegetation growth have difficulty predicting die-off events in areas considered to be generally climatically suitable for the species, bringing considerable challenges in identifying which forests are vulnerable to droughts and how that vulnerability varies across landscapes and individual trees. To address this problem, we urgently need detailed data from individuals that die and those that survive intense drought events from within the core regions of the species distribution. However, predicting when and where intense drought events will occur is extremely challenging, making such responsive data collection very difficult. In 2019 an intense drought event impacted forests in Central Europe. In the Spring of 2020, it became clear that this drought event had caused widespread, yet highly variable die-off within the core area of the range of the European beech tree - one of the most widely distributed broadleaf trees on the continent and a key forestry resource. The extraordinary response of the European beech forests in Central Europe to the intense drought in 2019 now provides us with an exceptional opportunity to better predict which forest areas are at an increased risk to drought events within the core of this species range. By acting rapidly in the wake of this extreme event before the crowns of the now-dead trees begin to lose branches and collapse, we can collect data from individual trees that died and survived the 2019 drought event to determine how tree size (e.g. diameter, height, crown size), stand competition (e.g. tree density, size distribution), historical growth patterns (determined from tree rings), and local terrain characteristics (e.g. slope, aspect, curvature) influence the vulnerability of trees to drought-induced mortality. We will pair detailed field measurements with equally detailed drone-captured hyperspectral and LiDAR data and satellite remote sensing data that will enable us to assess tree heath and forest structure from above the forest canopy. Effectively exploiting this short window of opportunity to assess the impact of the 2019 drought will enable us to develop new approaches for the rapid assessment of forest health and to predict vulnerability across large areas of forest. The data collected in this project will allow us to make realistic local forecasts of tree vulnerability to drought and develop remote sensing methods to support the validation of these forest health forecasts. The conditions that have resulted following the drought event in Central Europe in 2019 are extremely rare and so this project provides a major opportunity to drive much needed improvements in remote sensing of forest health and deliver the knowledge and data needed to improve global models of forest growth under ongoing climate change.

气候变化正在对全球树木和森林生态系统的健康产生重大影响。对于许多地区来说，在未来的气候情景下，干旱事件的频率和强度预计将会增加。因此，随着气候变暖和干旱事件变得更加频繁和严重，预计森林生长将普遍减少，死亡事件的范围和严重程度将增加。虽然经常在物种分布的炎热和干燥边缘观察到干旱事件的影响，但令人担忧的是，最近与干旱相关的死亡发生在气候条件应该最有利的物种分布范围的核心区域。全球植被生长模型很难预测气候适宜该物种的地区的死亡事件，这给确定哪些森林易受干旱影响以及这种脆弱性在不同景观和个体树木之间的差异带来了相当大的挑战。为了解决这个问题，我们迫切需要来自物种分布核心区域内死亡个体和在严重干旱事件中幸存下来的个体的详细数据。然而，预测强烈干旱事件发生的时间和地点极具挑战性，使得这种响应性数据收集变得非常困难。 2019年，一场严重的干旱事件影响了中欧的森林。 2020 年春季，很明显，这场干旱事件在欧洲山毛榉树的核心区域造成了大范围但高度可变的死亡，欧洲山毛榉树是欧洲大陆分布最广泛的阔叶树之一，也是重要的林业资源。中欧的欧洲山毛榉森林对 2019 年的严重干旱做出了非凡的反应，现在为我们提供了一个绝佳的机会，可以更好地预测该物种核心范围内哪些森林地区面临更大的干旱风险。通过在现已死亡的树木的树冠开始失去树枝和倒塌之前迅速采取行动，我们可以收集在 2019 年干旱事件中死亡并幸存的单棵树木的数据，以确定树木大小（例如直径、高度、树冠大小）、林分竞争（例如树木密度、大小分布）、历史生长模式（根据树木年轮确定）和当地地形特征（例如坡度、坡向、曲率）如何影响脆弱性 树木因干旱引起的死亡。我们将详细的现场测量与同样详细的无人机捕获的高光谱和激光雷达数据以及卫星遥感数据相结合，这将使我们能够从森林冠层上方评估树木健康和森林结构。有效利用这一短暂的机会评估 2019 年干旱的影响将使我们能够开发新方法来快速评估森林健康并预测大片森林的脆弱性。该项目收集的数据将使我们能够对树木对干旱的脆弱性进行现实的当地预测，并开发遥感方法来支持这些森林健康预测的验证。 2019 年中欧干旱事件后造成的情况极为罕见，因此该项目提供了一个重大机会，可以推动森林健康遥感方面急需的改进，并提供改进持续气候变化下的全球森林生长模型所需的知识和数据。

项目成果

The benefits of mountain woodland restoration

• DOI: 10.1111/rec.13701
• 发表时间: 2022-04
• 期刊: Restoration Ecology
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: Sarah H. Watts;A. Jump

Climate-change-driven growth decline of European beech forests.

• DOI: 10.1038/s42003-022-03107-3
• 发表时间: 2022-03-10
• 期刊: Communications biology
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Martinez Del Castillo E;Zang CS;Buras A;Hacket-Pain A;Esper J;Serrano-Notivoli R;Hartl C;Weigel R;Klesse S;Resco de Dios V;Scharnweber T;Dorado-Liñán I;van der Maaten-Theunissen M;van der Maaten E;Jump A;Mikac S;Banzragch BE;Beck W;Cavin L;Claessens H;Čada V;Čufar K;Dulamsuren C;Gričar J;Gil-Pelegrín E;Janda P;Kazimirovic M;Kreyling J;Latte N;Leuschner C;Longares LA;Menzel A;Merela M;Motta R;Muffler L;Nola P;Petritan AM;Petritan IC;Prislan P;Rubio-Cuadrado Á;Rydval M;Stajić B;Svoboda M;Toromani E;Trotsiuk V;Wilmking M;Zlatanov T;de Luis M
• 通讯作者: de Luis M

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests

平衡之举：实施森林社会生态复原力的原则、标准和指标框架

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117039
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Environmental Management
• 影响因子: 8.7
• 作者: Nikinmaa L

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants.

• DOI: 10.1111/nph.19138
• 发表时间: 2023-07
• 期刊: The New phytologist
• 作者: J. Martínez‐Vilalta;Raúl García‐Valdés;A. Jump;Albert Vilà‐Cabrera;Maurizio Mencuccini

Satellite data track spatial and temporal declines in European beech forest canopy characteristics associated with intense drought events in the Rhön Biosphere Reserve, central Germany.

卫星数据跟踪与德国中部Rhön生物圈保护区强烈干旱事件相关的欧洲山毛榉森林冠层特征的空间和时间下降。

• DOI: 10.1111/plb.13391
• 发表时间: 2022-12
• 期刊: PLANT BIOLOGY
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: West, E.;Morley, P. J.;Jump, A. S.;Donoghue, D. N. M.
• 通讯作者: Donoghue, D. N. M.