TerraFIRMA: Future Impacts Risks and Mitigation Actions

TerraFIRMA：未来影响风险和缓解措施

• 批准号: NE/W004895/1
• 负责人: Colin Jones
• 金额: $ 1198.13万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW004895%2F1
• 关键词: TerraFIRMA; Future; Impacts; Risks; Mitigation

TerraFIRMA aims to increase our understanding of the risks and impacts associated with global climate change. It also will assess a number of leading mitigation options aimed at limiting the magnitude of future climate change. It will do this by developing and then applying advanced models of the coupled Earth system, meaning computer-mathematical models for the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice and land ice, encompassing relevant physical, chemical and biological processes and process interactions. These models are run for the past, to evaluate their accuracy in simulating key Earth system phenomena, including any trends in variables, such as in surface air temperature. The models are then run into the future using a range of assumed future emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, as well as aerosols and estimates of future land use.In TerraFIRMA we will design future emissions that see global warming exceed some of the key international policy targets, such as 2 degreeC warmer than pre-industrial values, rising to 3C, before then cooling back down to the 2C level at some later date. This cooling assumes widespread deployment of technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Using these, so-called overshoot scenarios, we will investigate the risk for rapid changes in three features of the Earth system; Antarctic ice sheets that may impact global sea-level rise, marine ecosystems, and fisheries and tropical forests, such as the Amazon. We aim to determine the risk for rapid change in these phenomena as the climate warms and whether such rapid changes if triggered after a certain amount of warming, are reversible if the climate is cooled back below a given target. Using the same experiments we will also assess the impact of global warming exceeding key targets on the following phenomena that all impact human activities and well-being; (i) water resources and water availability, (ii) air pollution, (iii) wildfires, (iv) marine ecosystems and fisheries and (v) global sea-level rise. For the first four of these impacts, we concentrate on three primary geographical areas: (a) sub-Saharan Africa, (b) the South Asian monsoon region, covering both land and adjacent oceans, and (c) the North-East Atlantic and the UK. In addition to analyzing the overshoot scenarios, we will also design a set of model experiments to investigate the efficacy of two widely discussed options for limiting (mitigating) future climate change. The first action is to rapidly reduce the emission of non-CO2 gases known as Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCFs). Unlike carbon dioxide, which has a lifetime of hundreds of years in the atmosphere, NTCFs (such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and aerosols) have atmospheric lifetimes ranging from days to a decade. Hence, large emission reductions in these gases can impact the amount of climate warming quite rapidly (i.e. in the near term). We will design experiments to assess the efficacy of emission reductions in gases such as methane to see whether they can help reduce near-term climate change and be applied in addition to carbon dioxide emission reductions that have a longer-term impact on warming. The second action is the widespread planting of trees (afforestation), potentially combined with direct Carbon capture, so-called Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture Storage (BECCS). We will design a set of model experiments to assess the impact widespread afforestation has on atmospheric carbon dioxide (trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere when they grow), while also considering the direct impact of afforestation on the local climate where the trees are located. We aim to get a good idea of how much cooling we can expect, and on what timescale from such widespread afforestation. The mitigation experiments we design, as well as the results, will be discussed with UK government departments involved in setting UK climate policy

Terrafirma旨在提高我们对与全球气候变化相关的风险和影响的理解。它还将评估许多领先的缓解措施，以限制未来气候变化的幅度。它将通过开发并应用耦合地球系统的先进模型来实现这一目标，这意味着大气，海洋，陆地，海冰和陆冰的计算机数学模型，包括相关的物理，化学和生物学过程以及过程相互作用。这些模型是过去的，以评估它们在模拟关键地球系统现象的准确性，包括变量的任何趋势，例如表面空气温度。然后，使用一系列假定的温室气体排放量，例如二氧化碳，甲烷和一氧化二氮，以及对未来土地使用的气溶胶和估算值。在Terrafirma中，我们将设计未来的排放，这些排放量超过了2型国际政策目标，然后将未来的备份超过了2级，而不是预先升温的，请将未来的备份超过了2级，并将未来的预先升高到未来，然后将未来的氧化物估计，然后是2级预先升温，将未来的预热越过2级，均超过了2级的预先升温，并将未来的预期升高到未来。以后的日期。这种冷却假设广泛部署了从大气中去除二氧化碳的技术。使用这些所谓的过冲场景，我们将研究地球系统三个特征快速变化的风险；可能影响全球海平面上升，海洋生态系统以及渔业和热带森林的南极冰盖，例如亚马逊。我们旨在确定这些现象的快速变化风险，因为气候变暖，如果在一定程度的变暖后触发，这种快速变化是否会变化，如果将气候冷却后，则可逆。使用相同的实验，我们还将评估全球变暖超过主要目标对以下所有影响人类活动和福祉的影响； （i）水资源和水的可用性，（ii）空气污染，（iii）野火，（iv）海洋生态系统和渔业以及（v）全球海平面上升。在这些影响的前四个影响中，我们集中于三个主要地理区域：（a）撒哈拉以南非洲，（b）南亚季风地区，覆盖了土地和邻近的海洋，以及（c）东北大西洋和英国。除了分析过冲场景外，我们还将设计一组模型实验，以研究两个广泛讨论的限制（减轻）未来气候变化的选项的功效。第一个动作是迅速减少称为近期气候锻炼（NTCF）的非CO2气体的排放。与二氧化碳在大气中有数百年历史的二氧化碳不同，NTCF（例如甲烷，臭氧，一氧化二氮和气雾剂）的大气寿命从天数到十年不等。因此，这些气体的大量排放减少会影响气候变暖的量（即短期内）。我们将设计实验，以评估甲烷等气体排放降低的疗效，以查看它们是否可以帮助减少近期气候变化，除了二氧化碳排放降低外，还可以使用对变暖长期影响的碳排放。第二个动作是树木的广泛种植（造林），可能与直接碳捕获，所谓的生物能源和碳捕获储存（BECC）相结合。我们将设计一组模型实验，以评估对大气中二氧化碳的影响广泛的影响（树木生长后，从大气中去除二氧化碳），同时还考虑了造林对当地树木所在的当地气候的直接影响。我们的目标是好了解我们可以期望的冷却程度，以及从这种广泛造林中的时间表。我们设计的缓解实验以及结果将与涉及制定英国气候政策的英国政府部门讨论

项目成果

Using machine-learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets

使用机器学习构建 TOMCAT 模型和基于掩星测量的平流层甲烷 (TCOM-CH4) 和一氧化二氮 (TCOM-N2O) 剖面数据集

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-2023-47
• 发表时间: 2023
• 作者: Dhomse S

Using machine learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets

• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-5105-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-11
• 期刊: Earth System Science Data
• 影响因子: 11.4
• 作者: S. Dhomse;M. Chipperfield

Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre

• DOI: 10.1029/2023gl102978
• 发表时间: 2023-03
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: F. Gómez-Valdivia;P. Holland;Antony Siahaan;P. Dutrieux;E. Young

A blended TROPOMI+GOSAT satellite data product for atmospheric methane using machine learning to correct retrieval biases

• DOI: 10.5194/amt-16-3787-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-08
• 期刊: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
• 影响因子: 3.8
• 作者: Nicholas Balasus;D. Jacob;A. Lorente;J. Maasakkers;R. Parker;H. Boesch;Zichong Chen;M. Kelp;H. Nesser;D. Varon

Scenario choice impacts carbon allocation projection at global warming levels

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-1295-2023
• 发表时间: 2023-12-13
• 期刊: EARTH SYSTEM DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: de Mora，Lee;Swaminathan，Ranjini;Yool，Andrew
• 通讯作者: Yool，Andrew