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TerraFIRMA: Future Impacts Risks and Mitigation Actions

TerraFIRMA：未来影响风险和缓解措施

基本信息

批准号：
NE/W004895/1
负责人：
Colin Jones
金额：
$ 1198.13万
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FW004895%2F1
关键词：
TerraFIRMA Future Impacts Risks Mitigation

项目摘要

TerraFIRMA aims to increase our understanding of the risks and impacts associated with global climate change. It also will assess a number of leading mitigation options aimed at limiting the magnitude of future climate change. It will do this by developing and then applying advanced models of the coupled Earth system, meaning computer-mathematical models for the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice and land ice, encompassing relevant physical, chemical and biological processes and process interactions. These models are run for the past, to evaluate their accuracy in simulating key Earth system phenomena, including any trends in variables, such as in surface air temperature. The models are then run into the future using a range of assumed future emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, as well as aerosols and estimates of future land use.In TerraFIRMA we will design future emissions that see global warming exceed some of the key international policy targets, such as 2 degreeC warmer than pre-industrial values, rising to 3C, before then cooling back down to the 2C level at some later date. This cooling assumes widespread deployment of technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Using these, so-called overshoot scenarios, we will investigate the risk for rapid changes in three features of the Earth system; Antarctic ice sheets that may impact global sea-level rise, marine ecosystems, and fisheries and tropical forests, such as the Amazon. We aim to determine the risk for rapid change in these phenomena as the climate warms and whether such rapid changes if triggered after a certain amount of warming, are reversible if the climate is cooled back below a given target. Using the same experiments we will also assess the impact of global warming exceeding key targets on the following phenomena that all impact human activities and well-being; (i) water resources and water availability, (ii) air pollution, (iii) wildfires, (iv) marine ecosystems and fisheries and (v) global sea-level rise. For the first four of these impacts, we concentrate on three primary geographical areas: (a) sub-Saharan Africa, (b) the South Asian monsoon region, covering both land and adjacent oceans, and (c) the North-East Atlantic and the UK. In addition to analyzing the overshoot scenarios, we will also design a set of model experiments to investigate the efficacy of two widely discussed options for limiting (mitigating) future climate change. The first action is to rapidly reduce the emission of non-CO2 gases known as Near Term Climate Forcers (NTCFs). Unlike carbon dioxide, which has a lifetime of hundreds of years in the atmosphere, NTCFs (such as methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and aerosols) have atmospheric lifetimes ranging from days to a decade. Hence, large emission reductions in these gases can impact the amount of climate warming quite rapidly (i.e. in the near term). We will design experiments to assess the efficacy of emission reductions in gases such as methane to see whether they can help reduce near-term climate change and be applied in addition to carbon dioxide emission reductions that have a longer-term impact on warming. The second action is the widespread planting of trees (afforestation), potentially combined with direct Carbon capture, so-called Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture Storage (BECCS). We will design a set of model experiments to assess the impact widespread afforestation has on atmospheric carbon dioxide (trees remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere when they grow), while also considering the direct impact of afforestation on the local climate where the trees are located. We aim to get a good idea of how much cooling we can expect, and on what timescale from such widespread afforestation. The mitigation experiments we design, as well as the results, will be discussed with UK government departments involved in setting UK climate policy

TerraFIRMA 旨在加深我们对全球气候变化相关风险和影响的了解。它还将评估一些旨在限制未来气候变化幅度的主要缓解方案。它将通过开发并应用耦合地球系统的先进模型来实现这一目标，即大气、海洋、陆地、海冰和陆冰的计算机数学模型，涵盖相关的物理、化学和生物过程以及过程相互作用。这些模型是针对过去运行的，以评估其模拟关键地球系统现象的准确性，包括变量的任何趋势，例如表面空气温度。然后，使用一系列假设的未来温室气体排放（例如二氧化碳、甲烷和一氧化二氮）以及气溶胶和对未来土地利用的估计，将模型运行到未来。在 TerraFIRMA 中，我们将设计未来的排放量，使全球变暖超过一些关键的国际政策目标，例如比工业化前的温度高 2 摄氏度，升至 3 摄氏度，然后再冷却至 2 摄氏度稍后某个日期的水平。这种冷却假设广泛采用从大气中去除二氧化碳的技术。利用这些所谓的超调情景，我们将调查地球系统三个特征快速变化的风险；南极冰盖可能会影响全球海平面上升、海洋生态系统以及渔业和亚马逊等热带森林。我们的目标是确定随着气候变暖这些现象发生快速变化的风险，以及在一定程度的变暖后引发的这种快速变化是否可以在气候冷却回给定目标以下时逆转。使用相同的实验，我们还将评估全球变暖超过关键目标对以下所有影响人类活动和福祉的现象的影响； (i) 水资源和水供应；(ii) 空气污染；(iii) 野火；(iv) 海洋生态系统和渔业；(v) 全球海平面上升。对于前四个影响，我们重点关注三个主要地理区域：(a) 撒哈拉以南非洲，(b) 南亚季风区，涵盖陆地和邻近海洋，以及 (c) 东北大西洋和英国。除了分析超调情景外，我们还将设计一组模型实验来研究两种广泛讨论的限制（缓解）未来气候变化方案的有效性。第一个行动是迅速减少非二氧化碳气体的排放，称为近期气候力量（NTCF）。与二氧化碳在大气中的寿命长达数百年不同，NTCF（例如甲烷、臭氧、一氧化二氮和气溶胶）在大气中的寿命从几天到十年不等。因此，这些气体的大量减排可能会相当迅速地（即在短期内）影响气候变暖的程度。我们将设计实验来评估甲烷等气体减排的效果，看看它们是否有助于减少短期气候变化，并与对变暖产生长期影响的二氧化碳减排一起应用。第二个行动是广泛植树造林，可能与直接碳捕获相结合，即所谓的碳捕获储存生物能源（BECCS）。我们将设计一组模型实验来评估广泛的植树造林对大气二氧化碳的影响（树木生长时会从大气中吸收二氧化碳），同时也考虑植树造林对树木所在当地气候的直接影响。我们的目标是清楚地了解这种广泛的植树造林可以带来多少降温，以及在什么时间范围内进行。我们设计的缓解实验以及结果将与参与制定英国气候政策的英国政府部门进行讨论

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Using machine-learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets

使用机器学习构建 TOMCAT 模型和基于掩星测量的平流层甲烷 (TCOM-CH4) 和一氧化二氮 (TCOM-N2O) 剖面数据集

DOI：
10.5194/essd-2023-47
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Dhomse S
通讯作者：
Dhomse S

Using machine learning to construct TOMCAT model and occultation measurement-based stratospheric methane (TCOM-CH4) and nitrous oxide (TCOM-N2O) profile data sets

DOI：
10.5194/essd-15-5105-2023
发表时间：
2023-11
期刊：
Earth System Science Data
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
S. Dhomse;M. Chipperfield
通讯作者：
S. Dhomse;M. Chipperfield

A blended TROPOMI+GOSAT satellite data product for atmospheric methane using machine learning to correct retrieval biases

DOI：
10.5194/amt-16-3787-2023
发表时间：
2023-08
期刊：
Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Nicholas Balasus;D. Jacob;A. Lorente;J. Maasakkers;R. Parker;H. Boesch;Zichong Chen;M. Kelp;H. Nesser;D. Varon
通讯作者：
Nicholas Balasus;D. Jacob;A. Lorente;J. Maasakkers;R. Parker;H. Boesch;Zichong Chen;M. Kelp;H. Nesser;D. Varon

Projected West Antarctic Ocean Warming Caused by an Expansion of the Ross Gyre