Is phenology evolving in response to climate change?

在气候变化的影响下，自然界的许多方面都在发生变化。其中最引人注目的是自然事件发生的时间——物候学——正在发生变化，许多物种每年的活动时间都在提前。他们是怎么做到的？主要有两种机制：一种是个体一生中对环境的短期反应，称为可塑性；另一种是自然选择导致的世代遗传变化，即进化。每一种机制所发挥的作用都很重要，因为它们能够产生不同的反应速度，并具有不同的持续变化潜力。例如，可塑性可以产生非常快的反应，但物种的可塑性是有限的，而遗传变化较慢，但可能随着时间的推移而持续。迄今为止，对物候变化最详细的研究集中在鸟类的产卵日期上，这些鸟类必须有充足的食物供应来饲养小鸡，而且在春天食物丰富程度会达到一个急剧的高峰。这些研究得出的结论是，鸟类对温度等暗示即将有食物的信号做出了可塑性反应，而几乎没有证据表明进化发生了变化。但许多有着不同生活史的物种，尤其是储存营养和有妊娠期的哺乳动物，其物候变化的速度和鸟类一样快。由于它们不能根据出生条件调整出生日期，进化可能是这些物种中更重要的机制。在朗姆酒上单独监测的马鹿中，物候学的几个方面随着时间的推移而提前。例如，自1980年以来，产犊日期提前了14天，有初步证据表明，这是由于遗传变化和可塑性的结合。在这项研究中，我们将通过(1)测量对一系列天气和生物驱动因素（如食物供应和寄生虫）的可塑性来研究8个物候特征；(2)测量自然选择，并验证选择倾向于早期物候的假设随着温度的升高而加强；(3)预测和测量进化（我们指的是遗传）对自然选择的反应；(4)预测物候变化对种群的影响。

Many aspects of the natural world are changing under climate change. One of the most notable is that the timing of natural events - phenology - is changing, with many species becoming earlier in their activities each year. How are they doing this? There two main mechanisms: short-term reactions to circumstances within the lifetime of an individual, known as plasticity, and genetic change across generations due to natural selection, i.e. evolution. The role played by each of these mechanisms is important, because they enable different rates of response and have different potential for sustained change. For example plasticity can generate a very fast response, but species have limits to plasticity, whereas genetic change is slower but may be sustained over time. To date the most detailed studies of phenology change focus on egg lay dates in birds which must have an ample food supply to raise chicks and in which there is a sharp spring peak in food abundance. These studies conclude that the birds respond plastically to cues such a temperature that indicate there will soon be food, while there is little evidence of evolutionary change. But many species with different kinds of life history, most notably mammals that store nutrition and have a gestation period, are changing phenology just as fast as birds. Since they cannot fine-tune birth dates to conditions at birth, evolution is likely to be a more important mechanism in these species. In the individually-monitored red deer on Rum, several aspects of phenology have got earlier over time. For example calving date has got earlier by 14 days since 1980, and there is pilot evidence this is due to a combination of genetic change and plasticity. In this study we will investigate eights phenology traits by (1) Measuring plasticity to a range of weather and biological drivers (such as food availability and parasites); (2) Measuring natural selection and testing the hypothesis that selection favouring earlier phenology has strengthened with warming temperatures; (3) Predicting and measuring the evolutionary (by which we mean genetic) response to selection; (4) Predicting the population implications of changing phenology.