Is phenology evolving in response to climate change?

物候学是否随着气候变化而演变？

• 批准号: NE/X000346/1
• 负责人: Josephine Pemberton
• 金额: $ 74.06万
• 依托单位: University of Edinburgh
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX000346%2F1
• 关键词: phenology; evolving; response; climate; change

Many aspects of the natural world are changing under climate change. One of the most notable is that the timing of natural events - phenology - is changing, with many species becoming earlier in their activities each year. How are they doing this? There two main mechanisms: short-term reactions to circumstances within the lifetime of an individual, known as plasticity, and genetic change across generations due to natural selection, i.e. evolution. The role played by each of these mechanisms is important, because they enable different rates of response and have different potential for sustained change. For example plasticity can generate a very fast response, but species have limits to plasticity, whereas genetic change is slower but may be sustained over time. To date the most detailed studies of phenology change focus on egg lay dates in birds which must have an ample food supply to raise chicks and in which there is a sharp spring peak in food abundance. These studies conclude that the birds respond plastically to cues such a temperature that indicate there will soon be food, while there is little evidence of evolutionary change. But many species with different kinds of life history, most notably mammals that store nutrition and have a gestation period, are changing phenology just as fast as birds. Since they cannot fine-tune birth dates to conditions at birth, evolution is likely to be a more important mechanism in these species. In the individually-monitored red deer on Rum, several aspects of phenology have got earlier over time. For example calving date has got earlier by 14 days since 1980, and there is pilot evidence this is due to a combination of genetic change and plasticity. In this study we will investigate eights phenology traits by (1) Measuring plasticity to a range of weather and biological drivers (such as food availability and parasites); (2) Measuring natural selection and testing the hypothesis that selection favouring earlier phenology has strengthened with warming temperatures; (3) Predicting and measuring the evolutionary (by which we mean genetic) response to selection; (4) Predicting the population implications of changing phenology.

自然界的许多方面都在气候变化的影响下发生变化。其中最值得注意的是，自然事件的时间-物候-正在发生变化，许多物种每年的活动时间变得更早。他们是怎么做到的？有两个主要机制：个体一生中对环境的短期反应，称为可塑性，以及由于自然选择，即进化而引起的跨代遗传变化。这些机制中的每一个都发挥着重要作用，因为它们能够产生不同的反应速度，并具有不同的持续变化潜力。例如，可塑性可以产生非常快的反应，但物种对可塑性有限制，而遗传变化较慢，但可能会随着时间的推移而持续。迄今为止，对物候变化最详细的研究集中在鸟类的产卵日期上，这些鸟类必须有充足的食物供应来养育小鸡，并且在春季食物丰富度有一个急剧的高峰。这些研究得出结论，鸟类对温度等暗示很快就会有食物的线索做出可塑性反应，而几乎没有证据表明进化发生了变化。但许多具有不同生活史的物种，最明显的是储存营养并有妊娠期的哺乳动物，正在像鸟类一样迅速改变物候。由于他们不能根据出生时的条件来调整出生日期，进化可能是这些物种更重要的机制。在单独监测的红鹿对朗姆酒，几个方面的物候已经得到了更早的时间。例如，自1980年以来，产犊日期提前了14天，有初步证据表明这是由于遗传变化和可塑性的结合。在本研究中，我们将调查八个物候特征，（1）测量可塑性的一系列天气和生物驱动程序（2）测量自然选择并检验有利于早期物候的选择随着温度升高而加强的假设;（3）预测和测量进化过程，（我们的意思是遗传）选择的反应;（4）预测改变物候的人口影响。