Managing the effects of disturbance on coral reef biodiversity: modelling starfish outbreaks in a changing world

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Coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef are facing multiple disturbances, in particular the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (A. planci) that can occur as large-scale outbreaks. This project aims to provide innovative guidance in support of the management of A. planci, based on a metapopulation modelling framework broadly applicable to the control of marine pests. Expected outcomes include the identification of the environmental triggers of A. planci outbreaks; the identification of target reefs and critical thresholds of management intervention needed to limit the impact of A. planci under different climate and land use scenarios; and future forecasts of coral and fish biodiversity under these scenarios.