DV3M: Deforming Volcanoes with Dynamic Magma-Mush Models

DV3M：使用动态岩浆模型使火山变形

• 批准号: NE/X013944/1
• 负责人: James Hickey
• 金额: $ 100.71万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX013944%2F1
• 关键词: DV3M; Deforming; Volcanoes; Dynamic; Magma

ContextOver 800 million people live near volcanoes, while many more depend on them for their livelihoods. Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology, complicated by uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting.Measurable ground deformation is one of the main tools used to monitor volcanoes and often results from the injection of magma beneath the surface. By combining measurements of deformation with models we can estimate locations and rates of magma supply that drive the displacements; these parameters feed into hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. However, the majority of models are based on outdated concepts and may be contributing to the noted uncertainties. They assume static fluid filled magma chambers despite a recent and exciting paradigm shift in our understanding of sub-volcanic magmatic systems which indicates magma is rather most likely stored in vertically extensive porous "mush" zones. The static magma chambers are also assumed to rupture (possibly leading to eruption) at a fluid-solid boundary according to a finite stationary failure threshold, but the distinct fluid-solid boundary is now thought to be unlikely in real scenarios, and the system inherently evolves dynamically in response to moving magma rather than statically. Therefore, the simple process of artificially inflating and rupturing a static chamber in the majority of volcano deformation models is a major simplification of reality, and introducing additional uncertainty into crucial model outputs. We do not know the influence of the new mush-paradigm on volcano deformation.Aims and objectivesDV3M is needed to advance a new generation of dynamic magma mush (DMM) volcano deformation models. DV3M aims to resolve the impact of porous magma-mush reservoirs on volcano deformation and reservoir stability. Project objectives are:1. Incorporate magma properties in DMM models that evolve in response to temperature and pressure.Evolution of magma properties cannot be accounted for in commonly employed static models of volcano deformation. DV3M will deliver a suite of DMM volcano deformation models that are coupled with temperature and pressure dependent changes in magma, exploiting new computationally efficient open-source tools. We will determine how dynamic changes in magma properties influence surface deformation patterns.2. Examine how time-dependent strain evolves in DMM models to understand magma-mush reservoir stability.New DMM models only now enable exploration of more realistic dynamic failure/stability criteria. DV3M will illuminate the range of expected strain-rates produced in magma-mush reservoirs undergoing magma recharge. DV3M model outputs with strain rates in excess of a newly determined threshold will promote brittle behaviour of the mush reservoir and could lead to failure; we will therefore provide a step-change in understanding of processes leading to potential eruptions.3. Apply DMM models to past and present periods of volcanic deformation at targeted high-risk volcanic centres.The new DMM models will be applied at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, and Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Accurate analysis of ongoing deformation and reservoir stability is needed using DMM models to fundamentally improve hazard assessments; continued use of static model approaches may be providing incorrect assessments influencing eruption potential analyses.Applications and benefitsDV3M will push beyond the state-of-the-art and fundamentally advance volcano deformation interpretations by more robustly and realistically estimating magma system parameters from observations. These improvements will reduce uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting for benefit globally at deforming volcanoes, and in particular at our target volcanoes. The approaches developed will be globally applicable and of use in short- and long-term risk mitigation.

有8亿人生活在火山附近，而更多的人依靠他们的生计。在火山喷发期间保护生命和生计是火山学的关键挑战，这是由于危险评估和喷发预测中的不确定性而复杂化。可衡量的地面变形是监测火山的主要工具之一，通常是由地面下面岩浆注入的。通过将变形的测量与模型相结合，我们可以估计驱动位移的岩浆供应的位置和速率；这些参数会带入危害评估和喷发预测中。但是，大多数模型都是基于过时的概念，可能会导致著名的不确定性。他们假设静态液体填充的岩浆腔室，尽管我们对亚伏岩岩浆系统的理解发生了近期且令人兴奋的范式，这表明岩浆很可能存储在垂直广泛的多孔“ Mush”区域中。还假定静态岩浆腔室根据有限的固定失败阈值在流体固定边界处发生破裂（可能导致喷发），但是现在认为独特的流体固定边界在现实情况下被认为不太可能在现实情况下，并且系统在固有的情况下固有地进化而不是静态地响应移动岩浆而不是静态。因此，在大多数火山变形模型中，人为膨胀和破裂静态腔的简单过程是现实的主要简化，并将额外的不确定性引入至关重要的模型输出中。我们不知道新的Mush-Paradigm对火山变形的影响。MAIMS和OpprocativesDV3M需要推进新一代的动态岩浆糊（DMM）火山变形模型。 DV3M的目的是解决多孔岩浆茂盛的水库对火山变形和储层稳定性的影响。项目目标是：1。将岩浆性质纳入DMM模型中，以响应温度和压力而发展。岩浆特性的进化不能在常用的火山变形的静态模型中解释。 DV3M将提供一套DMM火山变形模型，这些模型与岩浆中温度和压力相关的变化相结合，利用新的计算有效的开源工具。我们将确定岩浆性质的动态变化如何影响表面变形模式。2。检查时间依赖性应变如何在DMM模型中演变以了解Magma-Mush储层稳定性。新的DMM模型仅仅才能探索更现实的动态故障/稳定性标准。 DV3M将阐明经历岩浆充电的岩浆茂料储层中产生的预期应变率范围。应变速率超过新确定的阈值的DV3M模型输出将促进糊状储层的脆性行为，并可能导致故障。因此，我们将在理解导致潜在喷发的过程时提供步骤变化3。将DMM模型应用于有针对性的高风险火山中心的过去和现在的火山变形时期。新的DMM型号将在日本的Soufriere Hills Volcano，Montserrat和Sakurajima Volcano应用。使用DMM模型，需要对正在进行的变形和储层稳定性进行准确分析，以从根本上改善危险评估；持续使用静态模型方法可能会提供影响喷发潜在分析的错误评估。应用和福利DV3M将通过更坚固，更现实地估算观测值的岩浆系统参数来超越最新的火山变形解释，从而超越火山变形的解释。这些改进将减少危险评估和喷发预测中的不确定性，以在变形的火山，尤其是我们的目标火山上为全球造福。开发的方法将在全球适用，并用于短期和长期风险降低。