DV3M: Deforming Volcanoes with Dynamic Magma-Mush Models

DV3M：使用动态岩浆模型使火山变形

• 批准号: NE/X013944/1
• 负责人: James Hickey
• 金额: $ 100.71万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX013944%2F1
• 关键词: DV3M; Deforming; Volcanoes; Dynamic; Magma

ContextOver 800 million people live near volcanoes, while many more depend on them for their livelihoods. Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology, complicated by uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting.Measurable ground deformation is one of the main tools used to monitor volcanoes and often results from the injection of magma beneath the surface. By combining measurements of deformation with models we can estimate locations and rates of magma supply that drive the displacements; these parameters feed into hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. However, the majority of models are based on outdated concepts and may be contributing to the noted uncertainties. They assume static fluid filled magma chambers despite a recent and exciting paradigm shift in our understanding of sub-volcanic magmatic systems which indicates magma is rather most likely stored in vertically extensive porous "mush" zones. The static magma chambers are also assumed to rupture (possibly leading to eruption) at a fluid-solid boundary according to a finite stationary failure threshold, but the distinct fluid-solid boundary is now thought to be unlikely in real scenarios, and the system inherently evolves dynamically in response to moving magma rather than statically. Therefore, the simple process of artificially inflating and rupturing a static chamber in the majority of volcano deformation models is a major simplification of reality, and introducing additional uncertainty into crucial model outputs. We do not know the influence of the new mush-paradigm on volcano deformation.Aims and objectivesDV3M is needed to advance a new generation of dynamic magma mush (DMM) volcano deformation models. DV3M aims to resolve the impact of porous magma-mush reservoirs on volcano deformation and reservoir stability. Project objectives are:1. Incorporate magma properties in DMM models that evolve in response to temperature and pressure.Evolution of magma properties cannot be accounted for in commonly employed static models of volcano deformation. DV3M will deliver a suite of DMM volcano deformation models that are coupled with temperature and pressure dependent changes in magma, exploiting new computationally efficient open-source tools. We will determine how dynamic changes in magma properties influence surface deformation patterns.2. Examine how time-dependent strain evolves in DMM models to understand magma-mush reservoir stability.New DMM models only now enable exploration of more realistic dynamic failure/stability criteria. DV3M will illuminate the range of expected strain-rates produced in magma-mush reservoirs undergoing magma recharge. DV3M model outputs with strain rates in excess of a newly determined threshold will promote brittle behaviour of the mush reservoir and could lead to failure; we will therefore provide a step-change in understanding of processes leading to potential eruptions.3. Apply DMM models to past and present periods of volcanic deformation at targeted high-risk volcanic centres.The new DMM models will be applied at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, and Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Accurate analysis of ongoing deformation and reservoir stability is needed using DMM models to fundamentally improve hazard assessments; continued use of static model approaches may be providing incorrect assessments influencing eruption potential analyses.Applications and benefitsDV3M will push beyond the state-of-the-art and fundamentally advance volcano deformation interpretations by more robustly and realistically estimating magma system parameters from observations. These improvements will reduce uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting for benefit globally at deforming volcanoes, and in particular at our target volcanoes. The approaches developed will be globally applicable and of use in short- and long-term risk mitigation.

背景超过 8 亿人生活在火山附近，还有更多人依赖火山维持生计。在火山喷发期间保护生命和生计是火山学面临的主要挑战，而灾害评估和喷发预测的不确定性使情况变得更加复杂。可测量的地面变形是用于监测火山的主要工具之一，通常是由于岩浆注入地表以下而产生的。通过将变形测量与模型相结合，我们可以估计驱动位移的岩浆供应的位置和速率；这些参数可用于灾害评估和火山喷发预测。然而，大多数模型都是基于过时的概念，可能会导致上述的不确定性。尽管我们对火山下岩浆系统的理解最近发生了令人兴奋的范式转变，这表明岩浆很可能储存在垂直广泛的多孔“糊状”区域中，但他们假设岩浆室充满静态流体。根据有限的静态失效阈值，静态岩浆室也被假设在流体-固体边界处破裂（可能导致喷发），但现在认为在实际情况下明显的流体-固体边界不太可能出现，并且系统本质上是响应移动的岩浆而动态演化的，而不是静态演化的。因此，在大多数火山变形模型中，人为地使静态室膨胀和破裂的简单过程是对现实的重大简化，并在关键模型输出中引入了额外的不确定性。我们不知道新的 Mush 范式对火山变形的影响。目的和目标 需要 DV3M 来推进新一代动态岩浆糊 (DMM) 火山变形模型。 DV3M旨在解决多孔岩浆糊状储层对火山变形和储层稳定性的影响。项目目标是： 1．将随温度和压力而演化的 DMM 模型中纳入岩浆特性。常用的火山变形静态模型无法解释岩浆特性的演化。 DV3M 将提供一套 DMM 火山变形模型，该模型与岩浆中温度和压力相关的变化相结合，利用新的计算高效的开源工具。我们将确定岩浆性质的动态变化如何影响地表变形模式。2．检查 DMM 模型中随时间变化的应变如何演变，以了解岩浆糊状储层的稳定性。新的 DMM 模型现在才能够探索更现实的动态失效/稳定性标准。 DV3M 将阐明经历岩浆补给的岩浆糊状储层中产生的预期应变率范围。 DV3M 模型输出的应变率超过新确定的阈值将促进糊状储层的脆性行为，并可能导致失效；因此，我们将在对导致潜在喷发的过程的理解上做出重大改变。3。将 DMM 模型应用于目标高风险火山中心过去和现在的火山变形。新的 DMM 模型将应用于日本的苏弗里埃尔山火山、蒙特塞拉特火山和樱岛火山。需要使用DMM模型对持续变形和储层稳定性进行准确分析，以从根本上改进灾害评估；继续使用静态模型方法可能会提供影响喷发潜力分析的错误评估。应用和优势DV3M 将超越最先进的技术，通过更稳健、更真实地根据观测估计岩浆系统参数，从根本上推进火山变形解释。这些改进将减少灾害评估和喷发预测的不确定性，为全球变形火山，特别是我们的目标火山带来好处。所制定的方法将在全球范围内适用并用于短期和长期风险缓解。