DV3M: Deforming Volcanoes with Dynamic Magma-Mush Models

超过8亿人居住在火山附近，还有更多的人依靠火山为生。在火山爆发期间保护生命和生计是火山学面临的主要挑战，危险评估和火山爆发预测的不确定性使这一挑战变得更加复杂。可测量的地面变形是监测火山的主要工具之一，通常是地表下岩浆注入的结果。通过将变形测量与模型相结合，我们可以估计驱动位移的岩浆供应的位置和速率；这些参数用于危害评估和火山喷发预测。然而，大多数模型都是基于过时的概念，可能会导致注意到的不确定性。尽管最近我们对次火山岩浆系统的理解发生了令人兴奋的范式转变，表明岩浆极有可能储存在垂直扩展的多孔“糊状”带中，但他们还是假设岩浆室是静态流体填充的。静态岩浆房也被假设在一个流体-固体边界上根据有限的静态破坏阈值破裂（可能导致喷发），但现在认为在实际情况中不太可能有明显的流体-固体边界，系统本身是动态演变的，以响应移动的岩浆，而不是静态的。因此，在大多数火山变形模型中，人为膨胀和破裂静态腔室的简单过程是对现实的主要简化，并在关键的模型输出中引入了额外的不确定性。我们还不知道新的糊状模式对火山变形的影响。目的和目的需要dv3m来推进新一代动态岩浆泥（DMM）火山变形模型。DV3M旨在解决多孔岩浆-泥质储层对火山变形和储层稳定性的影响。项目目标是：1。在DMM模型中加入岩浆的属性，这些属性随着温度和压力的变化而变化。岩浆性质的演化不能用常用的火山变形静态模型来解释。DV3M将提供一套DMM火山变形模型，该模型与岩浆中的温度和压力相关变化相结合，利用新的计算效率高的开源工具。我们将确定岩浆性质的动态变化如何影响地表变形模式。检查DMM模型中随时间变化的应变如何演变，以了解岩浆-浆液储层的稳定性。新的DMM模型现在才能够探索更现实的动态失效/稳定性标准。DV3M将阐明岩浆补给过程中岩浆泥储层产生的预期应变速率范围。如果DV3M模型输出的应变率超过了新确定的阈值，则会促进泥质储层的脆性行为，并可能导致破坏；因此，我们将在理解导致潜在火山爆发的过程方面提供一个阶段性的变化。将DMM模型应用于目标高风险火山中心的过去和现在的火山变形期。新的DMM模型将应用于蒙特塞拉特岛的Soufriere Hills火山和日本樱岛火山。需要使用DMM模型准确分析正在进行的变形和水库稳定性，从而从根本上改进危害评估；继续使用静态模型方法可能会提供不正确的评估，影响喷发潜力的分析。dv3m的应用和效益将超越最先进的技术，通过更可靠、更真实地估计观测到的岩浆系统参数，从根本上推进火山变形解释。这些改进将减少危害评估和喷发预测的不确定性，从而在全球范围内受益于火山变形，特别是我们的目标火山。所制定的方法将适用于全球，并可用于减轻短期和长期风险。

ContextOver 800 million people live near volcanoes, while many more depend on them for their livelihoods. Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology, complicated by uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting.Measurable ground deformation is one of the main tools used to monitor volcanoes and often results from the injection of magma beneath the surface. By combining measurements of deformation with models we can estimate locations and rates of magma supply that drive the displacements; these parameters feed into hazard assessments and eruption forecasts. However, the majority of models are based on outdated concepts and may be contributing to the noted uncertainties. They assume static fluid filled magma chambers despite a recent and exciting paradigm shift in our understanding of sub-volcanic magmatic systems which indicates magma is rather most likely stored in vertically extensive porous "mush" zones. The static magma chambers are also assumed to rupture (possibly leading to eruption) at a fluid-solid boundary according to a finite stationary failure threshold, but the distinct fluid-solid boundary is now thought to be unlikely in real scenarios, and the system inherently evolves dynamically in response to moving magma rather than statically. Therefore, the simple process of artificially inflating and rupturing a static chamber in the majority of volcano deformation models is a major simplification of reality, and introducing additional uncertainty into crucial model outputs. We do not know the influence of the new mush-paradigm on volcano deformation.Aims and objectivesDV3M is needed to advance a new generation of dynamic magma mush (DMM) volcano deformation models. DV3M aims to resolve the impact of porous magma-mush reservoirs on volcano deformation and reservoir stability. Project objectives are:1. Incorporate magma properties in DMM models that evolve in response to temperature and pressure.Evolution of magma properties cannot be accounted for in commonly employed static models of volcano deformation. DV3M will deliver a suite of DMM volcano deformation models that are coupled with temperature and pressure dependent changes in magma, exploiting new computationally efficient open-source tools. We will determine how dynamic changes in magma properties influence surface deformation patterns.2. Examine how time-dependent strain evolves in DMM models to understand magma-mush reservoir stability.New DMM models only now enable exploration of more realistic dynamic failure/stability criteria. DV3M will illuminate the range of expected strain-rates produced in magma-mush reservoirs undergoing magma recharge. DV3M model outputs with strain rates in excess of a newly determined threshold will promote brittle behaviour of the mush reservoir and could lead to failure; we will therefore provide a step-change in understanding of processes leading to potential eruptions.3. Apply DMM models to past and present periods of volcanic deformation at targeted high-risk volcanic centres.The new DMM models will be applied at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, and Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Accurate analysis of ongoing deformation and reservoir stability is needed using DMM models to fundamentally improve hazard assessments; continued use of static model approaches may be providing incorrect assessments influencing eruption potential analyses.Applications and benefitsDV3M will push beyond the state-of-the-art and fundamentally advance volcano deformation interpretations by more robustly and realistically estimating magma system parameters from observations. These improvements will reduce uncertainties in hazard assessment and eruption forecasting for benefit globally at deforming volcanoes, and in particular at our target volcanoes. The approaches developed will be globally applicable and of use in short- and long-term risk mitigation.