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FUTURE-FLOOD: New estimates of evolving UK flood risk for improved climate resilience

未来洪水：对英国不断变化的洪水风险的新估计，以提高气候适应能力

基本信息

批准号：
NE/X014134/1
负责人：
Elizabeth Kendon
金额：
$ 103.71万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2023 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX014134%2F1
关键词：
FUTURE FLOOD New estimates evolving

项目摘要

Recent devastating floods across the UK and Europe have highlighted the need to make society more resilient to flooding. This need is even more urgent given that flooding is predicted to become more frequent and destructive with climate change. However, current estimates of future flood risk in the UK and elsewhere are unreliable as they are typically based on coarse resolution climate models, which are unable to capture the short-duration rainfall extremes responsible for flooding. They also do not capture critical changes in the spatial extent and temporal clustering of rainfall events and neglect key physical processes in changing rainfall and river flow patterns. FUTURE-FLOOD is an ambitious project to advance our understanding of future inland flood risk and provide new flood estimates across the UK that are fit for purpose. It will bring together internationally state-of-the-art high resolution climate projections with advanced flood modelling capability. We will exploit a new set of continuous 100yr climate projections that provide rainfall data hour by hour, for every 2.2km grid box across the UK, for 1981-2080 for twelve ensemble members. This is like starting twelve weather forecasts and running each for 100yrs. These projections (an extension of "UKCP Local" only available for three 20yr periods) are unique in their spatial and temporal coverage. They will be exploited to gain new understanding of changes in rainfall over the coming years and decades, including changes in temporal clustering, antecedent conditions and spatial extent of events. Such changes are not well understood but are likely to be critically important for flood risk.The 100yr UKCP Local projections will be used to drive hydrological and flood models, providing a complete UK-wide assessment of changes in the frequency and severity of compound pluvial and fluvial flooding for the first time. UKCP Local rainfall data will be used directly such that complex changes to rainfall patterns and intensity distributions are captured in the simulated river flows and flood levels. A recent pilot study (carried out by the project team) showed that using the full UKCP Local space-time varying precipitation fields to drive flood models can lead to radically different estimates of future flood risks to those contained in current guidance based on simplified uplift methods. This pilot study did not capture compound effects and was limited to only one pluvial site (Bristol) and two fluvial catchments (Thet and Dyfi) but demonstrated the need for the national-scale study proposed here. We will compare results with flooding simulated using standard approaches and coarser resolution climate model data, assessing the reliability of existing flood predictions. Additional flood modelling experiments will allow us to identify the physical controls on flooding and its change through time, including the role of changes in the space-time variability of rainfall and its interactions with the landscape. This understanding will be key to identifying improved uplift approaches commonly used by practitioners for future flood risk assessment.Providing flood projections continuously over 100yrs is a major step forward and will enable us to interpret individual observed flood events in the context of climate change and translate results to changes for specific policy-relevant global warming levels. We will combine the new flood hazard information with estimates of exposure and vulnerability to estimate flood risk (e.g. properties flooded, damage to critical infrastructure, monetary loss). This estimation will include projections of socio-economic change. We will demonstrate the use of this new information in decision-making at national scale. We will also co-develop a local-scale demonstrator (initially for Bristol) with city decision-makers to take the new flood information through to improving city resilience, assessing the scope for and benefits of adaptive action.

最近英国和欧洲发生的毁灭性洪水凸显了提高社会抵御洪水能力的必要性。鉴于预计洪水将随着气候变化而变得更加频繁和更具破坏性，这一需求更加紧迫。然而，目前对英国和其他地方未来洪水风险的估计是不可靠的，因为它们通常基于粗分辨率的气候模型，无法捕捉导致洪水的短时间降雨极端情况。它们也没有捕捉到降雨事件的空间范围和时间聚集的关键变化，忽视了降雨和河流流量模式变化中的关键物理过程。FUTURE-FLOOD是一个雄心勃勃的项目，旨在促进我们对未来内陆洪水风险的了解，并提供适合目的的英国各地的新洪水估计。它将把国际上最先进的高分辨率气候预测与先进的洪水建模能力结合起来。我们将利用一套新的连续100年的气候预测，提供降雨数据每小时，每2.2公里的网格框在英国，1981-2080年的12个合奏成员。这就像开始12个天气预报，每个预报运行100年。这些预测（“UKCP本地”的扩展，仅适用于三个20年期）在其空间和时间覆盖范围是独一无二的。将利用这些数据对未来几年和几十年的降雨量变化，包括时间聚类、前因条件和事件空间范围的变化，获得新的认识。这种变化还没有得到很好的理解，但可能是至关重要的洪水risk.The 100 yr UKCP本地预测将被用来驱动水文和洪水模型，提供一个完整的英国范围内的变化的频率和严重程度的复合洪泛和河流洪水的第一次评估。UKCP将直接使用当地降雨数据，以便在模拟的河流流量和洪水位中捕获降雨模式和强度分布的复杂变化。最近的一项试点研究（由项目团队进行）表明，使用完整的UKCP局部时空变化降水场来驱动洪水模型，可能会导致对未来洪水风险的估计与基于简化隆起方法的当前指南中的估计完全不同。这项试点研究没有捕捉到复合效应，仅限于一个多雨站点（布里斯托）和两个河流流域（Thet和Dyfi），但证明了需要在这里提出的全国范围的研究。我们将使用标准方法和较粗分辨率的气候模型数据模拟洪水的结果进行比较，评估现有洪水预测的可靠性。额外的洪水模拟实验将使我们能够确定洪水的物理控制及其随时间的变化，包括降雨的时空变化及其与景观的相互作用。这种理解将是关键，以确定改进的隆起方法，通常用于从业者为未来的洪水风险assessment.Providing洪水预测连续超过100年是一个重大的进步，将使我们能够解释个别观测到的洪水事件在气候变化的背景下，并将结果转化为具体的政策相关的全球变暖水平的变化。我们将联合收割机将新的洪水灾害信息与风险和脆弱性估计相结合，以估计洪水风险（例如，财产被淹、关键基础设施受损、金钱损失）。这一估计将包括对社会经济变化的预测。我们将展示如何在国家范围内使用这些新信息进行决策。我们还将与城市决策者共同开发一个地方规模的演示器（最初用于布里斯托），以将新的洪水信息用于提高城市的复原力，评估适应行动的范围和效益。